I got all my props right, righting the ship from the Houston-Oakland debacle. Right now for the playoffs I'm sitting at +385 on the props, and exactly even straight up.
Atlanta right now is at +3. The Falcons are blitzing a lot more in the playoffs, which is pretty much the only way to stop a QB as good as Brady. Aaron Rodgers was playing close to Brady-level, but he had no run game to bring the safeties up.
I think the game will stay close, and the Falcons seem like they have the edge. Picking the Pats to win again would make for a rather hollow victory. My personal bias cannot stand for it, and I think that's how most of the league feels as well.
I'm picking Atlanta straight up, and playing it safe on the props.
SCORE IN FINAL 2:00 OF 1ST HALF (-275)
NO PENALTIES FOR EXCESSIVE CELEBRATION (-400)
SCORE IN THE FIRST 7:30 OF 1ST QUARTER (-225)
Postgame:
Uhh, WTF just happened? That may have been the most fantastic example of the game of football I've ever seen, and I for one don't expect to ever see another game anything like it. "The Catch" is now Edleman's. I walked away from the TV. Luckily I returned in time to see it. The Superbowl as a spectacle is over now, we may as well give up on seeing a better one. Lady Gaga spelunking the stadium was fierce; she should have been the talk of a boring blowout. The Falcons will have to own the biggest second half collapse ever. It's days, and games, like this that make being a Lions fan so easy. Did we win the Superbowl? No. But we didn't LOSE the Superbowl either. This team will probably never get it's mojo back, not as long as the Patriots are around to remind them of the ring they should have had. The Lions, however, will celebrate their postseason berth and can happily reminisce about 2016 for years to come.
So, +346 on the postseason. -1 straight up. Thoughts and prayers go out to all the people who put serious dough on Atlanta.
Thursday, February 2, 2017
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Conference Championship Props
Back on the waggin' with some prop bets for the first of today's games. Pretty much everybody knows how this first game is going to go, so, in a shift to realistic bettor fashion, I will stick to the game with an expected outcome and not let the NFL's TV scheduling dictate who gets props. :P
ALTERNATE TOTAL - OVER 53 1/2 - (-275)
ALTERNATE TOTAL - UNDER 70 1/2 - (-325)
ANYTIME TD - D. ADAMS - (EVEN)
ANYTIME TD - D. FREEMAN - (-125)
ANYTIME TD - J.COOK - +125
ANYTIME TD - J.JONES - (-150)
I don't know how deep Belichek can hide plays up a sleeveless sweatshirt, but I do know better than to try to guess. I think points are probably going to flow freely in both games. I'll add a Blount TD, because it fits the "old team who cut him" narrative, even though he basically forced them to. I also suspect the Pats rested him specifically so they could rely on him being a factor today. The odds of this game being a defensive struggle are much higher, but like I've said before, you should take a lot of salt with anybody's prediction.
ANYTIME TD - L. BLOUNT (-125)
ALTERNATE TOTAL - OVER 53 1/2 - (-275)
ALTERNATE TOTAL - UNDER 70 1/2 - (-325)
ANYTIME TD - D. ADAMS - (EVEN)
ANYTIME TD - D. FREEMAN - (-125)
ANYTIME TD - J.COOK - +125
ANYTIME TD - J.JONES - (-150)
I don't know how deep Belichek can hide plays up a sleeveless sweatshirt, but I do know better than to try to guess. I think points are probably going to flow freely in both games. I'll add a Blount TD, because it fits the "old team who cut him" narrative, even though he basically forced them to. I also suspect the Pats rested him specifically so they could rely on him being a factor today. The odds of this game being a defensive struggle are much higher, but like I've said before, you should take a lot of salt with anybody's prediction.
ANYTIME TD - L. BLOUNT (-125)
Thursday, January 19, 2017
NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships
Meh. 2-2 last week, but I feel like I should have seen the two losses coming. Aaron Rodgers is on another level, and LeVeon Bell is as close as anybody to reaching it (Frogger reference in the works). That pretty much betrays how I feel about Sunday's games, except for a sneaking suspicion that the well rested Pats will have saved half their playbook for the next two games.
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA (GB +4 1/2)
Atlanta had a much easier time dismantling an undermanned Seattle secondary than many expected. They could never boast a strong defense though, and I think Rodgers is as close to a runaway train as a player can be. When he said "run the table" I don't think he meant "regular season table".
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND
The Steelers have issues on defense. There were plenty of opportunities for Kansas City to win last week. New England had the easiest schedule in the league this year, and has not been tested by an opponent of this caliber. I usually give the edge to the team who has played in more tough games, but I also don't usually go against the Pats. LeGarette Blount is the X-factor here, having been cut by the Steelers. I expect a Patriot W, but I'll be rooting for the Steelers to score one against the evil empire.
Quotient quotables:
"As you know I'm not on Snapface and all that, so I don't really get those," he said. "I'm really just worried about getting our team ready to go. I'm not really too worried about what they put on Instantchat, or whatever it is."
- Belichek on the Brown/Tomlin locker room video.
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA (GB +4 1/2)
Atlanta had a much easier time dismantling an undermanned Seattle secondary than many expected. They could never boast a strong defense though, and I think Rodgers is as close to a runaway train as a player can be. When he said "run the table" I don't think he meant "regular season table".
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND
The Steelers have issues on defense. There were plenty of opportunities for Kansas City to win last week. New England had the easiest schedule in the league this year, and has not been tested by an opponent of this caliber. I usually give the edge to the team who has played in more tough games, but I also don't usually go against the Pats. LeGarette Blount is the X-factor here, having been cut by the Steelers. I expect a Patriot W, but I'll be rooting for the Steelers to score one against the evil empire.
Quotient quotables:
"As you know I'm not on Snapface and all that, so I don't really get those," he said. "I'm really just worried about getting our team ready to go. I'm not really too worried about what they put on Instantchat, or whatever it is."
- Belichek on the Brown/Tomlin locker room video.
Tuesday, January 10, 2017
NFL Playoffs - First Round
So, how best to erase the taste of a bad loss in Houston? More football, of course I'm sticking with the home teams this time, but since posting I've changed my mind on the Pittsburgh/KC tilt. Nothing in particular warranted the switch, I just don't think KC will be able to score enough. I'm taking the line off on that game as well, and I had the Dallas line backwards, they're 4.5 point favorites.
Update: Sticking with a recent theme, I will now chicken out of my Pittsburgh pick. Back to KC and a full slate of home cookin'.
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA (SEA+4 1/2)
Atlanta probably should have won the prior meeting in Seattle. For those that missed it, there was a no-call on Sherman that prevented the Falcons from kicking what almost certainly would have been a game winning field goal. This Seattle team is inconsistent, and on the road. Not saying it's impossible, just sayin'.
HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND (NE - 15)
Now I will say it's impossible. There's no way the least hospitable B-and-B in New England let Osweiler get comfortable on the road. New England is essentially getting a bye all the way to the conference finals when you consider the level of competition in the other AFC semifinal. Somebody should make sure Brady doesn't de-fluff the pillows.
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY
This one is going to be good. Kansas City's secondary will most likely take Antonio Brown out of the game and force the Steelers to beat them on the ground. The Titans have drafted the blueprint to do just that, but, without a Delanie Walker-type TE, I don't think PIT can replicate. Kansas City just doesn't have the offensive weapons to keep up if Pittsburgh can turn this into a shootout.
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS (DAL -4 1/2)
Aaron Rodgers blew the top of the NY Giants last week, without breaking a sweat. OBJ's awful case of the drops (or Eli's usual case of inaccuracy) was what truly put the game on it's head. The Giants couldn't get their D off the field, I think the Pack will be the ones having a hard time getting their own to the bench in this one. See: Previous meeting at Lambeau, which GB never looked competitive in.
Update: Sticking with a recent theme, I will now chicken out of my Pittsburgh pick. Back to KC and a full slate of home cookin'.
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA (SEA+4 1/2)
Atlanta probably should have won the prior meeting in Seattle. For those that missed it, there was a no-call on Sherman that prevented the Falcons from kicking what almost certainly would have been a game winning field goal. This Seattle team is inconsistent, and on the road. Not saying it's impossible, just sayin'.
HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND (NE - 15)
Now I will say it's impossible. There's no way the least hospitable B-and-B in New England let Osweiler get comfortable on the road. New England is essentially getting a bye all the way to the conference finals when you consider the level of competition in the other AFC semifinal. Somebody should make sure Brady doesn't de-fluff the pillows.
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY
This one is going to be good. Kansas City's secondary will most likely take Antonio Brown out of the game and force the Steelers to beat them on the ground. The Titans have drafted the blueprint to do just that, but, without a Delanie Walker-type TE, I don't think PIT can replicate. Kansas City just doesn't have the offensive weapons to keep up if Pittsburgh can turn this into a shootout.
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS (DAL -4 1/2)
Aaron Rodgers blew the top of the NY Giants last week, without breaking a sweat. OBJ's awful case of the drops (or Eli's usual case of inaccuracy) was what truly put the game on it's head. The Giants couldn't get their D off the field, I think the Pack will be the ones having a hard time getting their own to the bench in this one. See: Previous meeting at Lambeau, which GB never looked competitive in.
Sunday, January 8, 2017
Wild Card Props - Sunday (Live)
Hey, so a busy morning prevented me from the obligatory pregame post. I'll be taking the prop bets off, but wanted to let y'all know I was down with the Packers and Steelers before it was cool.
I haven't tabulated yesterday, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't good. In a rare instance of not doing my homework, I had no idea the Raiders LT was out. Anybody trying to stop Clowney in his first game at a new position on the road is going to have a bad time, especially when the Center goes out as well. Anyways, enough whining. On to some better football. (I hope)
Update: I'd like to amend my picks already. A: Turns out the Steelers already won, but I was ignorant of the start time, so I'm not giving myself credit for that one. And B: The Packers look real shitty. The Giants just need to keep chuckin' it.
Update: I'd like to return to my original pick. Good thing I wasn't going to award myself the take-backsies anyways. Uncle Moe is back on the Packers side and I think they'll get the turnover they need. The Giants D has played lights out so far, and without Jordy, it will be tough. Rodgers is in his zone though, and Eli is Eli.
Update to the Update: screw that. Points for Kyle's Pittsburgh pick. Also what game is this?!? Here I thought we were in a defensive struggle. Pack's up 21-13.
Update: Good thing I didn't update all year. This is tiring. Talk about a game of two halves.
I haven't tabulated yesterday, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't good. In a rare instance of not doing my homework, I had no idea the Raiders LT was out. Anybody trying to stop Clowney in his first game at a new position on the road is going to have a bad time, especially when the Center goes out as well. Anyways, enough whining. On to some better football. (I hope)
Update: I'd like to amend my picks already. A: Turns out the Steelers already won, but I was ignorant of the start time, so I'm not giving myself credit for that one. And B: The Packers look real shitty. The Giants just need to keep chuckin' it.
Update: I'd like to return to my original pick. Good thing I wasn't going to award myself the take-backsies anyways. Uncle Moe is back on the Packers side and I think they'll get the turnover they need. The Giants D has played lights out so far, and without Jordy, it will be tough. Rodgers is in his zone though, and Eli is Eli.
Update to the Update: screw that. Points for Kyle's Pittsburgh pick. Also what game is this?!? Here I thought we were in a defensive struggle. Pack's up 21-13.
Update: Good thing I didn't update all year. This is tiring. Talk about a game of two halves.
Saturday, January 7, 2017
Wild Card Props - Saturday
Finally, the playoffs are here. My season average straight-up was .660, which is pretty damn good in comparison to the sportswriters around the league. Of course, I started late, so there is an asterisk. I won my Fantasy League, mostly because Le'Veon Bell carried me through the last few weeks.
The Raiders are hoping another ex-Spartan, Conner Cook, can guide them through a similar predicament. I usually don't trust rooks, but I've seen this kid play more than most and I think he outguns Osweiler this afternoon. Cook was routinely clutch in college, as many Michigan and Notre Dame fans know all too well. Houston will surely improve on last year's showing, but I don't think they run effectively enough to win. Neither team should expect to go any further than the second round.
FIRST HALF - OAK +3 (-115)
FIRST HALF TOTAL - OAK - OVER 7 1/2 (-130)
FIRST TD - M.CRABTREE +900
FIRST TD - A.COOPER +900
C.COOK - COMPLETIONS - OVER 18 (-125)
C.COOK - PASS YARDS - OVER 190 (-115)
L. MILLER - RUSH YARDS - UNDER 80 1/2 +120
SACKS - OAK - OVER 1 1/2 (-150)
Detroit has been relevant a week longer than usual, but their recent losses to Green Bay and Dallas make me think the comeback machine has run out of juice. Stafford is still having a banner year, and the offense is much more capable than I ever thought it would be, but Seattle on the road is too tall a task for this defense.
ANYTIME TD - TATE +200
ANYTIME TD - RAWLS (EVEN)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 38 1/2 (-115)
TATE- RECEPTIONS - UNDER 5 1/2 (-125)
The Raiders are hoping another ex-Spartan, Conner Cook, can guide them through a similar predicament. I usually don't trust rooks, but I've seen this kid play more than most and I think he outguns Osweiler this afternoon. Cook was routinely clutch in college, as many Michigan and Notre Dame fans know all too well. Houston will surely improve on last year's showing, but I don't think they run effectively enough to win. Neither team should expect to go any further than the second round.
FIRST HALF - OAK +3 (-115)
FIRST HALF TOTAL - OAK - OVER 7 1/2 (-130)
FIRST TD - M.CRABTREE +900
FIRST TD - A.COOPER +900
C.COOK - COMPLETIONS - OVER 18 (-125)
C.COOK - PASS YARDS - OVER 190 (-115)
L. MILLER - RUSH YARDS - UNDER 80 1/2 +120
SACKS - OAK - OVER 1 1/2 (-150)
Detroit has been relevant a week longer than usual, but their recent losses to Green Bay and Dallas make me think the comeback machine has run out of juice. Stafford is still having a banner year, and the offense is much more capable than I ever thought it would be, but Seattle on the road is too tall a task for this defense.
ANYTIME TD - TATE +200
ANYTIME TD - RAWLS (EVEN)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 38 1/2 (-115)
TATE- RECEPTIONS - UNDER 5 1/2 (-125)
Friday, December 30, 2016
Week 17 NFL Picks
9-7 last week, finally falling back towards mediocrity. I blame the Bears, as I had to watch more of that game than I would have otherwise. With Mariota going down and the Cards/Browns winning, there were not a lot of things for this partisan to be happy about, besides the weather. (I got a tan in December!?!) Fantasy team is up 3 headed into the second leg. That's something.
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE
Matt Cassell, while probably not made of sand, melted down last week. He couldn't beat Jacksonville's secondary, I'd bet he probably won't figure out Houston's.
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
Minnesota still can't score. Chicago has been playing spoiler long enough to be dangerous, but they made me look pretty dumb last week against a hungry Redskins team. This pick is tentative.
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES
The Cards are too good at running the ball to let the Rams back into this one if they get ahead. The only way I see LA winning at home is with early points off turnovers.
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO
The Chargers are just sooo 2000 and late. Better luck is overdue for this franchise, but short of a division change or a Brees homecoming season, next year might be even rougher.
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
The Sqwaks just need to hit cruise control and put their talons up for this one. They haven't looked capable of that all year, but I think they can get it done comfortably against a familiar (new haircut?) QB.
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT
The Lions have looked more like the Lions of yesteryear recently, and now get to be spanked at home in front of fans who at one point were certain they had this whole playoff thing locked up. Woe, the ides of Janurary.
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI
The Ravens just lost their season by scoring too quickly. Chances are, they haven't gotten over it inside the locker room just yet.
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Both teams are a bit of an enigma to me right now. Going with the home one.
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS
Stupid Jacksonville hurt my man. Damn you Jags. Damn you.
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
They could rest their starters. They won't. Even if I had insider info that Brady won't take a snap, it wouldn't justify taking the Dolphins here.
BUFFALO @ NEW YORK JETS
Tyrod Taylor has been benched, so EJ Manuel will get to test his mettle this week against a Jets team that is probably less interested in playing than the rest of the Bills are. If you know what's good for you, don't watch this game.
DALLAS @ PHILIDELHPIA
The Cowboys had every reason to give their starters a rest last week against Detroit. I think they actually do rest them this week, and the Eagles win accordingly. Lane Johnson looked every bit as good against the G-men as the Philly faithful could have expected, now if only Dallas could figure out New York...
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
The Browns, to the surprise of many, got their first win against a depleted Chargers team, making it a rough week 16 for us Lions fans. We now get to wonder how many years we might have to wait for another 0-16 team to join us in historical abomination. Pittsburgh hits the gas, then coasts 3 quarters.
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
The Saints are trying to reach .500, and the Falcons are playing for a first round bye. Atlanta is also expecting at least one more win in the Georgia Dome before the doors are shuttered for good this offseason. Usually a stadium's last ride is cause for away teams to worry. Not so at the Joe in Detroit so far, but that's a story for another blog.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
Washington needs a W to get into the playoffs. DeSean Jackson is having himself a year, averaging almost 20 yards a catch over the last 4. As good as the Giants are, I think OBJ will be slowed by Norman, particularly when McAdoo has no reason to risk his stars in a game that's all cost / no benefit.
OAKLAND @ DENVER
I want to see Denver take this game seriously. However, I don't see any incentive to risk injuries this week just to potentially reward Kansas City. I think playing backups makes much more sense if you are heading into the postseason, but I've never had to answer to a player on my fantasy team when he gets hurt week 17. Paxton Lynch can use all the reps he can get. Oakland still wants this AFC West title, in part to forget their own QB issues, which almost certainly will dash their SB hopes.
When you come to a fork in the road, take it. - Yogi Berra
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE
Matt Cassell, while probably not made of sand, melted down last week. He couldn't beat Jacksonville's secondary, I'd bet he probably won't figure out Houston's.
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
Minnesota still can't score. Chicago has been playing spoiler long enough to be dangerous, but they made me look pretty dumb last week against a hungry Redskins team. This pick is tentative.
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES
The Cards are too good at running the ball to let the Rams back into this one if they get ahead. The only way I see LA winning at home is with early points off turnovers.
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO
The Chargers are just sooo 2000 and late. Better luck is overdue for this franchise, but short of a division change or a Brees homecoming season, next year might be even rougher.
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
The Sqwaks just need to hit cruise control and put their talons up for this one. They haven't looked capable of that all year, but I think they can get it done comfortably against a familiar (new haircut?) QB.
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT
The Lions have looked more like the Lions of yesteryear recently, and now get to be spanked at home in front of fans who at one point were certain they had this whole playoff thing locked up. Woe, the ides of Janurary.
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI
The Ravens just lost their season by scoring too quickly. Chances are, they haven't gotten over it inside the locker room just yet.
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Both teams are a bit of an enigma to me right now. Going with the home one.
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS
Stupid Jacksonville hurt my man. Damn you Jags. Damn you.
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
They could rest their starters. They won't. Even if I had insider info that Brady won't take a snap, it wouldn't justify taking the Dolphins here.
BUFFALO @ NEW YORK JETS
Tyrod Taylor has been benched, so EJ Manuel will get to test his mettle this week against a Jets team that is probably less interested in playing than the rest of the Bills are. If you know what's good for you, don't watch this game.
DALLAS @ PHILIDELHPIA
The Cowboys had every reason to give their starters a rest last week against Detroit. I think they actually do rest them this week, and the Eagles win accordingly. Lane Johnson looked every bit as good against the G-men as the Philly faithful could have expected, now if only Dallas could figure out New York...
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
The Browns, to the surprise of many, got their first win against a depleted Chargers team, making it a rough week 16 for us Lions fans. We now get to wonder how many years we might have to wait for another 0-16 team to join us in historical abomination. Pittsburgh hits the gas, then coasts 3 quarters.
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
The Saints are trying to reach .500, and the Falcons are playing for a first round bye. Atlanta is also expecting at least one more win in the Georgia Dome before the doors are shuttered for good this offseason. Usually a stadium's last ride is cause for away teams to worry. Not so at the Joe in Detroit so far, but that's a story for another blog.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
Washington needs a W to get into the playoffs. DeSean Jackson is having himself a year, averaging almost 20 yards a catch over the last 4. As good as the Giants are, I think OBJ will be slowed by Norman, particularly when McAdoo has no reason to risk his stars in a game that's all cost / no benefit.
OAKLAND @ DENVER
I want to see Denver take this game seriously. However, I don't see any incentive to risk injuries this week just to potentially reward Kansas City. I think playing backups makes much more sense if you are heading into the postseason, but I've never had to answer to a player on my fantasy team when he gets hurt week 17. Paxton Lynch can use all the reps he can get. Oakland still wants this AFC West title, in part to forget their own QB issues, which almost certainly will dash their SB hopes.
When you come to a fork in the road, take it. - Yogi Berra
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)