Week 7 NFL Picks

In the interest of rewarding those of you foolish enough to find this dank corner of the interwebs, I will disseminate the betting tips that have led me to a life of near-fame and lost fortune. If you are wise, you will disregard my advice and do as you damn well please. I do not line my coats with fat stacks of benjis. Scroll at your own risk.

"Why start in week 7?" is a question I hear you asking in the future. Well, the first 6 weeks are traditionally loser weeks. They're garbage, I don't like them, nobody likes them, they're the worst. I also may have moved on them like a bitch, and am starting a mid-season losers bracket for blogs because I have WAAAAY too much time on my hands and no more money to waste.


Week 7 -

Thursday -

Chicago @ Green Bay - CHI +8.5, OVER 46.5

I still feel good about my picks in this one, even though I lost both. Hard to predict when a QB will go down, and not surprising the 3rd string couldn't find a way through a Packers secondary that played pretty well, considering their positions on the depth chart. If someone had told me I'd be picking Hoyer to hang tight with Rodgers in Lambeau before this year began, well, let's just say it's been a weird year for us all.


Sunday -

New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams - OVER 44.5

It will be interesting to see what the environment is like in London's Twickenham Stadium. The Rams will hope to get a repeat performance from Case Keenum and Kenny Britt, who torched a depleted Detroit D for career numbers in a loss last week. Even though there are some encouraging signs, the Mountain Goats will look to end a three game skid that has them back where they belong, around .500. Another factor could be the grass, a blend that's much closer to actual grass than turf. That should benefit LA. The Giants have won the last 6 matchups between these two by an average of 14.2 points. That margin certainly won't be reached in this one, I get the feeling field goals will be sparse.

Washington @ Detroit - OVER 50

Washington will wish Jordan Reed was available against a Detroit team that struggles to stop tight ends. Detroit, conversely, will wish they had Ngata and Levy back to stop a potent Washington rushing attack. Jim Bob Cooter has been able to score against just about everybody, and just about anybody can run on a tissue-thin Detroit front 7. Sensing a pattern here? This back-and-forth game will come down to the wire. I like Stafford to outduel Cousins at home and end the Redskin's 4 game winning streak, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee - TEN -3

Mularkey's boys have looked better and better as the year goes on, particularly in the passing game. The defense is much more competent than projected, which I attribute to Dick LeBeau and stellar defensive play-calling. After Indy's 4th quarter collapse against Houston, Colts linebacker Eric Walden described the loss thusly: "We blew it, this feeling is gross. It's like we pissed down our own leg". Their defensive line probably feels the same way about facing one of the best offensive lines in the league. I think Mariota continues his stellar play and Luck struggles to keep up, not because of an inability to make the throws, but simply because he won't have the time or space to step up into them.

New Orleans @ Kansas City -

The Chiefs secondary has proven itself to be among the best in the country, and that usually spells doom for Brees and his disciples. After beating Oakland on the road, I think KC will continue to roll at home. Mike Triplett at ESPN dug up the stats on the only previous meeting between Brandin Cooks and Marcus Peters, who matched up back in 2013. Cooks had 10 catches for 117 yards and a TD, which would suggest the Saints, until you compare it to Peters' 2 INT, 3 passes defended, and a forced fumble (Washington 69 - Oregon State 27). I like the Chiefs to win at Arrowhead.
 
Cleveland @ Cincinnati - CLE +10.5

A.J Green misses his friends. Watching Sanu and Jones be successful elsewhere has got the whole city down. I see this as a game between Eifert and Pryor Jr. as they both struggle to overcome injuries and make an impact. It's probably a good thing this game is on the road, because Cleveland fans are absolutely oblivious to the fact they have a football team right now. The "Battle of Ohio" is bound to be a miserable affair, the type of contest where no combatant really wins, but one certainly loses.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia - MIN -3

Now that the N.D State playbook has been exhausted, the glitter is beginning to fade on the darlings of the first 3 weeks. Remember when Doug Pedersen and Jim Schwartz were the talk of the NFL? What a difference a loss to the Lions can make. Now Zimmer's D wants to make a statement of intent to Bradford individually, and the league at large, as they prepare for a serious SB run. While it remains to be seen who won that trade, this defense has only allowed 63 points TOTAL thru week 7. Terrance Newman has played like a man possessed. The only reason 38 year-olds do that is a ring, baby, and Philadelphia will lose this coaching battle.

Buffalo @ Miami - BUF -3

Miami is the enigma of the NFL season so far. They've drawn the ire of bettors everywhere by knocking off a Steelers team that forgot to pack it's big boy pants for the trip down south.  I like this to be an entertaining game for at least 3 quarters. Buffalo boasts the best point differential in the NFL at +59. Miami is at -16, which is much better than I would have guessed. Tyrod Taylor has outperformed probably even his own expectations, and with or without Shady in the backfield, I think he can pull this one out and keep the train on the tracks.  Ryan Tannehill and Jay Ajayi have been playing better recently, but this Miami team is without a serious WR 1, 2, or 3. They will need to run through a stout D to have a chance, and I don't think they can.

Baltimore @ New York Jets - BAL +2, OVER 41

Geno Smith will get the start he's been obnoxiously anticipating, and I think it will take all of a quarter for him to remember how much it sucks to play for the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick, like it or not, is not as bad as a QB as his recent numbers suggest. I really don't think Geno's second day in the sun will go any better than the first. There is just nobody out there for him to throw to. Decker is sorely missed, and Marshall, God bless him, is not capable of beating double coverage. Without a RB that demands respect, a banged up Baltimore defense will have no problem sitting back and waiting for the mistakes that are bound to come.

Oakland @ Jacksonville -

Playing at home doesn't seem to help either of these teams. Oakland, having high hopes for their season and smarting after a comprehensive defeat, should find a way over and around Jacksonville. The Jags have been close is almost every game they've played, only getting blown out by the Chargers on the road.Besides being a statement game for the Raider's O-line,  I see this as a straight up WR duel. This game has all the makings of another last possession shootout for two teams that don't know any other way to win.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco -

Between Colin Kaepernick and Jameis Winston, it's hard to decide which QB I dislike less. They are both inaccurate, and rather poor at everything. Neither one seems to know how to audible into successful plays or avoid taking hits, but I have to acknowledge that sometimes trying to do too much is the only way to play when your receivers are crap. As a sort of bastardized home debut for Kap, I think he outplays Jameis and makes the job his own, till the offseason. Between this and the Cincy/Cleveland game, they might as well flip a coin and save us all some grief.

San Diego @ Atlanta -

IT'S NOT A TRAP! I don't think Atlanta will be sleeping on San Diego after what they've done this year. If they do get beat, it will not be because they underestimated their opponents. Atlanta has struggled to stop TE's, only Cleveland is worse. San Diego has two of the best. Joey Bosa will need to have another monster game to keep Atlanta within striking distance, which is within the realm of possibility considering his performances so far. I think it comes down to turnovers and who has the ball last, as all good games should. The Chargers seem like a team tired of losing close games on the road. The Swami picked the upset, and he's been freakishly good this year. In fact, ignore my picks and ride that man's coattails while you still have a chance.

New England @ Pittsburgh - NE -8

Leave it to a inanimate object to frustrate Bill more than any team has in a decade (full quote below). I have to agree with him, tablets are either stupid, needlessly oversized phones, or shitty laptops with no room for activities. That said, no other coach has been reduced to his unique method of troubleshooting. As an added bonus, we got to hear Pete Carroll walk the tightrope between trashing his sponsor's new product and insulting the intelligence of the best coach in the NFL. Oh, yeah, the game. Nobody beats New England with a backup. Only New England can beat New England.

Seattle @ Arizona -

The implications of this game are enormous, as a home loss would almost certainly damn Arizona to a wild card berth at best. Seattle's chances to make the playoffs would increase 25% with a win. Seattle seems to be finding itself as the season wears on, and is finally getting decent blocking from Jimmy Graham. I don't think Arizona can keep up, and for that reason I'm thinking the Seahawks are primed for a statement win on Sunday night. Two of the top 3 defenses going at it? Yes please.

Monday -

Houston @ Denver - DEN -9

I am not too high on either Denver QB, but they are both better options than the man Elway let skip town this summer. I think the Broncos want to welcome Osweiler back to Denver with open arms; Then wrap him up like a Christmas present and send his ass back to whence he came. (which is actually Montana, not Houston, but I digress). Bonus points if the PA guy plays "I Will Survive" pregame. In all seriousness, his average drop-back is 5 1/2 yards, and anyone who saw the Super Bowl knows how much Von Miller loves a backpedal. Denver by a mile.


Odds & Ends -

"As you probably noticed, I'm done with the tablets. They're too undependable… I just can't take it anymore… There are very few games where there aren't issues in some form or fashion with the equipment… There's a lot of things involved, and inevitably, something goes wrong somewhere at some point in time… And first of all, you have to figure out what the problem is. Is it a battery? Is it a helmet? Is it the coach's pack?… It could be one of 15 different things… It was a problem last week. It's basically a problem every week… I'm done with the tablets. I'll use paper pictures from here on, because I just have given it my best shot."
 - Bill Belichek

And some sage advice from Nick Saban's biography:

"You've got guys out there chasing pussy, having all these kids. And then you come in here and try to play football. Ultimately it's a distraction. Ultimately, you don't want to be out there chasing after midnight. If you haven't locked  it up by midnight, it's not worth it." 
  At this point, Saban paused, and shuffled on his feet. The color had risen in his face. His players had no idea what to expect next. "Ultimately, you never want to sleep with anybody who has less to lose than you do," he said. "So ultimately, if I'm ever going to sleep around on Miss Terry, it's going to be with Hillary Fucking Rodham Clinton."
  A few members of the team laughed so hard that the fell out of their seats. "It was funny as hell," says a former player. "And it was actually a great lesson."

I found this on the excellent twitter feed of Ben Cohen @bzcohen