Soccer 9/29 - 9/30

My picks, with help from Team Bankroll and the chat.

WIN: Chelsea - Liverpool Draw Double Chance (1.46) 3U to win 1.40
LOSS: Werder Bremen (1.84) 3U to win 2.52
WIN: Juventus (1.75) 3U to win 2.26
WIN: Genoa (2.29) 3U to win 3.87
WIN: Sevilla (2.32) 5U to win 6.60
WIN: Real Madrid - Atl. Madrid Draw Double Chance (1.76) 3U to win 2.31
LOSS: Girona (3.05) 3U to win 6.15

Parlay:

LOSS: PSG and Lyon to win (1.7) 3U to win 2.11

Up 7.44U

NCAAF Week 5

Going a little heavy on totals this week.

WIN: UCF -13 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73
LOSS: North Texas -7 (-110) 3U to win 2.73
LOSS: BYU +17 (-110) 5U to win 4.55

WIN: Boise St - Wyoming OVER 47 1/2 (-105) 2U to win 1.90
WIN: Stanford - Notre Dame OVER 52 (-110) 3U to win 2.73
WIN: Washington St - Utah OVER 50 (-110) 3U to win 2.73
WIN: Florida State - Louisville OVER 46 (-105) 3U to win 2.86
LOSS: Michigan - Northwestern OVER 47 (-105) 3U to win 2.86
LOSS: Bowling Green - Georgia Tech UNDER 65 (-105) 3U to win 2.86
WIN: Ohio State - Penn St UNDER 71 (-105) 5U to win 4.76
LOSS: Hawaii - San Jose St UNDER 67 1/2 (-115) 3U to win 2.61

+.71U

NFL Week 4

Last week sucked. Here's to a speedy recovery. 

WIN: LAR -6 1/2 (-105) 3U to win 2.86

LOSS: BUF +10 1/2 (-125) 3U to win 2.40

WIN: DET +3 1/2 (-115) 5U to win 4.35

LOSS: NYJ +7 1/2 (-112) 3U to win 2.68

LOSS: TB +3 (-110) 3U to win 2.73

PUSH: KC -4 (-112) 5U to win 4.46

PUSH: SEA -3 (-120) 3U to win 2.50
LOSS: MIA +6.5 (-113) 3U to win 2.65

LOSS: SEA-ARI Over 37 1/2 (-110) 5U to win 4.55

Yikes. -9.79 on the day with KC left.

Totals 10/3

SOCCER +37.25U
NFL -16.67U
NCAAF +1.27U
ESPORTS +17.85U
NHL +1.14U

EPL Week 6

Team Bankroll was a massive help in compiling these, but there's quite a few bets I can't structure the way I would like. For instance, they often play BTTS and the over 2.5 goals together, which I can't do. :/ I've gotten over it and played for straight wins. 

WIN: Liverpool to win to nil (1.8) 3U to win 2.4U
WIN: Leicester (1.6) 2U to win 1.2U
WIN: Tottenham (1.78) 2U to win 1.57U

WIN: Juventus to win to nil (1.77) 2U to win 1.54U
LOSS: Barcelona to win to nil (1.77) 2U to win 1.54U
LOSS: Wolfsburg (1.71) 3U to win 2.13U
WIN: Sevilla (2.14) 3U to win 3.42U
LOSS: Dortmund (2.56) 3U to win 4.68U
WIN: Atl. Madrid (1.86) 3U to win 2.58U

Lucrative Larry:

WIN: Lyon -1 over Dijon (+110) 3U to win 3.3U

+8.01U

AIK to win over Gothenburg (1.71) 5U to win 3.55U

Reddit Picks of the Day

WIN: Vegas (+115) over Colorado (NHL Preseason) +1.15U
WIN: Juventus (-112) over Valencia +.89U
LOSS: Vegas (3.10) over Colorado(NHL Preseason)-1.00U
Total: +1.04U

Preseason NHL

So, I'm bored. Of course I could just watch baseball, but I've sworn off betting on it and it's been a long time since I watched a game without a stake. Luckily, preseason hockey has started so I'm headed in that direction. Sadly, the Arizona game is off the board.

WIN: VEGAS (+115) 2U to win 2.30U
LOSS: ST.LOUIS (+120)  2U to win 2.40U

LIVE:

LOSS: (-125) 2U to win 1.6U

Wednesday 9/19

LOSS: PITTSBURGH(+110) 2U to win 2.2U
LOSS: TB/CAR UNDER 6 (-125) 2U to win 1.6U

Thursday 9/20

WIN: CHI/DET OVER 5.5 (-125) 2U to win 1.6U

Andrew Mcinnis - Twitter:

WIN:EDM/WPG OVER 5.5 (-125) 2U to win 1.6U

9/24

The Vegas line is at Bet365, looks like an obvious error to me.

WIN: MON-TOR OVER 5 1/2 (-130) 2U to win 1.54U
WIN: WPG (+110) 2U to win 2.20U
LOSS: VGS (+210) 3U to win 6.30U

WIN: CAR +175 2U to win 3.50
WIN: DET CHI OVER 5 1/2 (-125) 3U to win 2.40
LOSS: DET - BOS OVER 5 1/2 (-140) 3U to win 2.14


Up 1.14U

Champions Leauge Group Stage

Selected with advice from Team Bankroll, another SBR product:


LOSS: Atl. Madrid - Monaco - Under 2.5 Goals (1.73) 2U to win 1.46U
WIN: Liverpool - PSG - BTTS ; YES (1.45) 4U to win 1.80U
WIN: Liverpool to win (2.3) 3U to win 3.9U
WIN: Galatasaray to win (1.91) 2U to win 1.82U
WIN: Dortmund to win (1.8) 2U to win 1.60U
LOSS: Porto to win (2.90) 2U to win 3.8U
WIN: Inter Milan to win and DNB (1.72) 3U to win 2.14U

And Freddy Fortune

WIN: Leeds v. Preston (-116) 2U to win 1.72U

Parlay:
LOSS: Porto, Galatasaray, and Dortmund to win (8.85) 2U to win 17.7U


FIRMINHO! What a match that was. So close on the parlay, Porto drew 1:1.

Up 6.98U on the day. 6.73U on the year.


Wednesday:

WIN: Juventus to win (1.85) 7U to win 5.95U
WIN: Man U -1 (2.35) 3U to win 4.05U
LOSS: Ajax to win by a scoreline of 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 (2.5) 2U to win 3U
LOSS: Man City / Man City HT/FT (1.55) 2U to win 1.10U

LOSS: (SBR) Lucrative Larry's Parlay 3U to win 3.51U

3 Game Parlay (+117) avail. at Bet365
Ajax over AEK Athens (-250)
Man. City over Lyon (-600)
Real Madrid over Roma (-300)

Up 3U on Wednesday, for a total of 9.98U on the week, 9.73U on the year, with a few MLS plays left.

WIN: Atlanta (-155) to win v, San Jose (MLS) 3U to win 1.94
WIN: Portland - Columbus OVER 2.5 Goals (-120) 3U to win 2.5U

Up 14.17U total before Juan's play.

#Juan's play:

WIN: San Lorenzo to win (-135) 3U to win 2.22U

NCAAF Week 4

My early plays from the week 4 card. I upped the TCU bet from 3 to 5 U and added Army and Washington St.

WIN: Texas A&M +24 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U
WIN: Stanford -1 1/2 (-110) 5U to win 4.55U
LOSS: TCU -3 (-105) 5U to win 4.76U
WIN: Arizona St +17 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U
WIN: Army +31 1/2 (+105) 3U to win 3.15U
WIN: Wash St +3 1/2 (-107) 3U to win 2.80U
WIN: N. Texas -12 1/2 (-108) 3U to win 2.78U
LOSS: Indiana +6 (-109) 3U to win 2.75

Moneyline:

LOSS: Indiana (+190) 4U to win 7.60U

Totals:

WIN: USC - Washington St - OVER 51 1/2 (-110) 5U to win 4.55

+11.29U

NFL Week 3

Fuckin' hell. What a day. -29.66U on Sunday and -6.88 overall.

Sides:

LOSS: CHI -4 (-110) 5U to win 4.55U

LOSS: OAK +3 (-115) 3U to win 2.61U
LOSS: MIN -16 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73
LOSS: GB -2 1/2 (-118) 3U to win 2.84
LOSS: NE -6 1/2 (-105) 7U to win 6.67U

Totals:

WIN: KC - SF OVER 55 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U
WIN: PIT - TB OVER 52 (-110) 5U to win 4.55U
LOSS: NYJ - CLE OVER 39 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U
WIN: LAC -LAR OVER 49 (-115) 3U to win 2.61U

1st Half Lines

LOSS: NE -3 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U
LOSS: GB -1 1/2 (+100) 3U to win 3U
LOSS: CHI -3 1/2 (+105) 3U to win 3.15U

Thursday Night

LOSS: NYJ TT OVER 17.5 (-140) 3U to win 2.14U
LOSS: Quiney Enunwa - Anytime TD (+180) 2U to win 3.6U

LIVE:

LOSS: SEA - DAL UNDER 34.5 (-130) 5U to win 3.85U

LOL eSports

Echo Fox won 3 matches at an average of 25 minutes in the Third Place match during the Spring Split. The over/under here is 32 minutes. I think Clutch will improve their showing and perhaps elongate these games, but I think they're still in danger of another sweep. I prefer these lines:

WIN: Echo Fox -1.5 (-200) 4U to win 2U
WIN: Clutch Gaming - To win at least one map - NO - (+171) 1U to win 1.71U
WIN: Gen. G - +1.5 - (-132) 2U to win 1.52U

Like the EPL, I'll keep these numbers separate from football.

WIN: RNG to win 2nd Match - (-135) - 1U to win .74
LOSS: RNG to win 3rd Match - (-135) - 1U to win .74

LOSS: RNG to win 3rd Match- (-130) - 4U to win 3.08U

LOSS: RNG to win 4th Match (-120) - 7U to win 5.83U

Ouch. Welp. Reverse Sweep? Potentially. One game left and it's anybody's guess. Not going to throw more units at it.

So here goes a similar play on Echo Fox after game one. I don't think I was wrong to feel confident with RNG, they pulled it out in the end and were getting pretty decent value. Unfortunately, most of the value is gone now that Echo Fox won the first match.

WIN: Echo Fox -2.5 (-111) 3U to win 2.7U

So, -3.33U isn't too bad given that I lost 12U on two matches. One win for Clutch would have seriously hurt. Huni and Dardoch ran wild on the top lanes against Lira and Solo and kept Febiven largely in check.

Late Addition:

11pm and nothing left to bet on? Not so fast. Here's some more Chinese LOL action.

Edward Gaming - Rouge Warriors Total Time Under 36 Min (-116)

WIN: Match 3 - 5U to win 4.3
LOSS: Match 4 - 5U to win 4.3
PUSH: Match 5 - 5U to win 4.3

Edward Gaming - Rouge Warriors Over 25.5 Total Kills (-122)

LOSS: Match 1 - 2U to win 1.64
LOSS: Match 2 - 2U to win 1.64
WIN: Match 3 - 2U to win 1.64
LOSS: Match 4 - 2U to win 1.64
PUSH: Match 5 - 2U to win 1.64

WIN: Edward Gaming - Winner Match 4 (-141) 3U to win 2.13

-6.26U Total. RNG screwed me but I kept it close otherwise.


WIN: Damwon Gaming -1.5 ( +103) 3U to win 3.09U
WIN: MVP to win (-169) 5U to win 2.95U

LOSS: bbq OLIVERS to win a map: NO (+201) 3U to win 6.03U

Not gonna do the math just yet, I'm down about 3 units.

9/21

WIN: MVP to win 1 map : NO (+758) 1U to win 7.58U
WIN: Team BattleComics to win (+121) 5U to win 6.05U

LIVE:

WIN: Team BattleComics to win Match 2 (-108) 4U to win 3.72U
WIN: Team BattleComics to win Match 3 (-108) 4U to win 3.72U

Up 17.85U.

EPL Week 5

So, I'm at -2.68U after my first week (week 4).

I took a bad line here. Should have just gone with the win without the condition attached.

WIN: Liverpool and OVER 2.5 goals (+250) 2U to win 5U

These two I like more:

WIN: LIV-TOT Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (the Alex Classic) (-120) 2U to win 1.67U
WIN: Liverpool to win v. Tottenham (2.5) 2U to win 5U

LOSS: Watford draw no bet (+200) 2U to win 4U
WIN: Wolverhampton by 1 goal (+240) 2U to win 4.8U

WIN: Chelsea / Chelsea HT/FT (-180) 2U to win 1.11
LOSS: Leicester City -1 (+100) 2U to win 2U

Decimal odds now, for a few European matches

LOSS: Napoli - Fiorentina OVER 2.5 Goals (1.66) 2U to win 1.32U

This game was nil-nil in the 85'. Fuckin' ridiculous.
LOSS: Atl. Madrid - Eibar BTTS: NO (1.63) 2U to win 1.26U


And some MLS Plays courtesy of Pedro @ pedrosoccertips.com

LOSS: DC -1 (1.88) 5U to win 4.4U
LOSS: POR + .5 (1.88) 5U to win 4.4U
LOSS: LAFC -.75 (1.75) 5U to win 3.75U

And his lean (which I share)

WIN: ATL -.75 (1.97) 3U to win 2.91U

One more play from #Juan from SBR:

WIN: River Plate -1 (-133) 3U to win 2.26U

The two MLS losses pretty much wipe out the profit from Liverpool this morning. I'll finish the math when the Watford and DC results come in, but right now I should be hovering around 0.

-0.25U The MLS Card was brutal but the late Tottenham goal was delightful. Up and then down, this week was a wash.

NCAAF Week 3

Some early bets on next week's action:

LOSS: BALL ST +14 (-110) 5U to win 4.55
WIN: VANDERBILT + 14 1/2 (-110) 5U to win 4.55

I'll bet these to be safe, but I prefer these two teams on the moneyline.

WIN: GEORGIA -31 1/2 (-117) 5U to win 4.27

LOSS: OHIO ST -12 1/2 (-115) 5U to win 4.35

LOSS: OKLAHOMA -17 1/2 (-105) 5U to win 4.76
LOSS: WISCONSIN -22 (-105) 5U to win 4.76
LOSS: BOISE ST +3 (-115) 5U to win 4.35
POST: APP ST - 15 (-115) 5U to win 4.35

I downgraded the Georgia play from 7U to 5U, I don't feel great about leaving the backdoor open. That's the largest number I have, and I think much higher of MTSU than UTEP.

WIN: WASHINGTON -6 1/2 (-110) 4U to win 3.64
LOSS: TEN -30 (-110) 4U to win 3.64
WIN: DUKE - BAYLOR OVER 50 (-110) 3U to win 2.73
WIN: LSU +9 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73

Can't find a line for Cincinnati, but I would bet on them if I could. Really impressive defensively last week.

Moneylines

WIN: L.S.U +295 3U to win 8.85U
LOSS: Vanderbilt +500 3U to win 15U
LOSS: Ball St +445 3U to win 13.35U
WIN: Syracuse +155 3U to win 4.65

Parlay:

LOSS: Vandy and Ball State Moneyline 3U to win 95.1U

Down -6.58U on the day, -11.85U on the year. Pretty brutal day overall but the LSU game saved me.

NFL Week 2

So, just starting this page so I can put down some obvious (to me) bets against the Cardinals and Bills. I get the feeling they will be obvious to a lot of people and I want to get ahead of the line move. (Update: the Chargers line moved the other way, to 7, which I guess I should have expected)

WIN: LAC -7 1/2 (-104) 7U to win 6.73U
WIN: LAR -10 (-103) 5U to win 4.85U

They took the LAR line down, but I will be doubling down as soon as I can after watching Monday Night. It's now back up and hovering around -13 1/2. So one line I bought too early, one I got right.

WIN: LAR -13 1/2 (-112) 5U to win 4.46U

Kansas City looks like a pretty good line to buy early as well, I had them at +5 at PIT but I decided I like the moneyline more, so that's this week's edit. I'm also dropping my bet on the Browns.

WIN: KC moneyline (+200) 10U to win 20U
LOSS: PHI -3 (-120) 7U to win 5.83U

Philly at -3 is just flat ridiculous. Tampa Bay will look like a different team when they face a stout D.

LOSS: SEA - CHI OVER 43 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U

Two good defenses here, but I see two close games and enough offensive weapons to get up and over these numbers. Defensive scores have been all the rage Week 1 (7 by my count) and one is all you need.

This week is pretty much Chiefs or bust, I just don't see a whole lot else on the card right now. My 7U play last week on the Ravens cashed, and it turned out to be the easiest game to call. Hopefully this week is the same, though the Steelers are a whole different animal than the hapless Bills. I expect a shootout and I think either team could win a close game.

The Chiefs pick came in, so now I'm just waiting on the Rams to give me my first positive week.

LOSS: NYG-DAL - D/ST Score: YES (+190) 2U to win 3.80U
WIN: 1st Quarter - Over 7 1/2 - (+105) 2U to win 2.10U

+29.14U on the day, + about 28U on the year. Just waiting for the Seattle-Chicago game.

Monday Night Props

LOSS: First Score - CHI Rushing TD (+650) 1U to win 6.5U
WIN: Total Tackles and Assists - OVER 4 1/2 - Khalil Mack - YES (-110) 3U to win 2.73U

And tailing these from @2sharp2beAsquare Bovada and 5Dimes, respecfully:

WIN: Jordan Howard (CHI) over 2½ receptions (-145) 2U to win 1.38U
LOSS: Tarik Cohen (CHI) over 47½ rush+receiving yards (+120) 2U to win 2.4U

Up 27.25U on the week, 26.23U on the year.

NFL Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL is upon us. Hopefully it's kinder to us than the NCAA was.

WIN: BAL -6 1/2 (-119) 7U to win 5.88U
LOSS: TEN -1 (-105) 3U to win 2.86U
WIN: JAX -3 (-113) 3U to win 2.65U

These 3 jumped out at me, and I can't decide if I should just stick to them and play big or try to find some other value on the prop market. For the moment, this is it, because BetOnline doesn't have props yet. Also, I can't get Baltimore at -6 1/2 anymore, but I like them to win by 14+.  One more teaser:

SEA DEN UNDER 47 1/2
BUF BAL UNDER 45 1/2
HOU +12

LOSS: 2U to win 3.20U

So, BetOnline has considerably fewer props than I'm used to, and a significantly clunkier website. I'm taking a risk and going where I know I probably shouldn't, the "First TD" prop. 1U each

LOSS: Delanie Walker +1200
LOSS: Melvin Gordon +550
LOSS: Royce Freeman +700
LOSS: Jordan Reed +800
LOSS: JMon Moore +2500
LOSS: LeGarrette Blount +800

Addition:

LOSS: BAL - BUF UNDER 40 1/2 -110 3U to win 2.73U

Additional Addition

WIN: LAR -4 1/2 (-105) 1U to win .95U

Thursday Night Prop:

WIN: ATL to kick +1 1/2 FG (-150) 3U to win 2U

Monday Night Addition

LOSS: DET -6 1/2 (-112) 3U to win 2.68U

Leans:

WIN: Chicago to cover +7 1/2 against GB

WIN: Philly -2 1/2 against the Falcons. 

LOSS: PIT -4 1/2 versus the Browns.

-3.47U before the LAR - OAK game.

WIN: Double Result - (+550) 1U to win 5.50U
OAK 1st Half LAR 2nd Half

LOSS: OAK OVER 1 1/2 FG (+100) 3U to win 3U
WIN: LAR OVER 2 1/2 TD (-150) 3U to win 2U

LOSS: OAK TT OVER 20 1/2 (-120) 3U to win 2.5U

-1.02U on the week in NFL. All in all, I think I had a decent read on the games not involving the teams I have a rooting interest in (DET, TEN). Next week I would fade DET but there isn't a line posted yet, probably because they played tonight. Anyways, my big mistake was taking the first to score props. without those I would have been up about 5U.

NCAAF Week 2

This Saturday can't come fast enough. Arizona, Miami, and Michigan be damned.

WIN: MISS ST -9 1/2 (-110) 5U to win 4.55U
WIN: MARYLAND -16 (-110) 5U to win 4.55U
WIN: BALL ST +33 1/2 (-117) 5U to win 4.27U
WIN: APP ST -14 (-107) 5U to win 4.67U

WHOO +18.04U

WIN: CINCINNATI +2 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U
LOSS: OKLAHOMA -29 1/2 (-115) 3U to win 2.61U
LOSS: CAL v BYU OVER 45 1/2 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U
LOSS: TCU 1ST HALF -13 1/2 (-122)3U to win 2.46U

LOSS: PARLAY: 1.5U to win 20.53U
MISS ST, BALL ST, MARYLAND and OKLAHOMA all to cover the spread.

LOSS: PARLAY:1.5U to win 263.7U (rough math)
MISS ST, BALL ST, MARYLAND, OKLAHOMA, HAWAII-RICE OVER 69 1/2, TCU-SMU OVER 59, BOISE ST -31 1/2, BALTIMORE (NFL) -7

LOSS: 1ST QUARTER PARLAY: 3U to win 7.27U
MARYLAND -3 1/2
APP ST -3 1/2

LOSS: PARLAY:1.9U to win 25.13U
MARYLAND FULL GAME -14
BOISE ST 1ST HALF -21
OKLAHOMA STATE 1ST HALF -20
ARKANSAS 1ST HALF -7 1/2

-7.9U on parlays. yikes. Still, the four 5U plays have come in, so if I had just fuckin' parlayed them...

With CIN-MIA (OHIO) and CAL-BYU still left in play, I am at +4.14U on the day.

LOSS: PARLAY: 2.98U to win 17.91U
ALL 1ST HALF UNDER @  35 1/2

SAN JOSE ST V WASH ST (-115)
RICE V HAWAII (-110)
CONNECTICUT V BOISE ST (-105)

Shoulda known Boise State would do it by themselves. yeesh. +3.89U right now with a doomed over in the BYU - CAL game left, so most likely, +.89U on the day, -5.27U on the year.

Damn, a great start to the day was pretty much wiped out by a lot of close losses. The parlays were stupid, I'll be avoiding them for a few weeks. BYU - CAL is final, and it got close but stayed under.