9-7 last week, finally falling back towards mediocrity. I blame the Bears, as I had to watch more of that game than I would have otherwise. With Mariota going down and the Cards/Browns winning, there were not a lot of things for this partisan to be happy about, besides the weather. (I got a tan in December!?!) Fantasy team is up 3 headed into the second leg. That's something.
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE
Matt Cassell, while probably not made of sand, melted down last week. He couldn't beat Jacksonville's secondary, I'd bet he probably won't figure out Houston's.
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
Minnesota still can't score. Chicago has been playing spoiler long enough to be dangerous, but they made me look pretty dumb last week against a hungry Redskins team. This pick is tentative.
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES
The Cards are too good at running the ball to let the Rams back into this one if they get ahead. The only way I see LA winning at home is with early points off turnovers.
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO
The Chargers are just sooo 2000 and late. Better luck is overdue for this franchise, but short of a division change or a Brees homecoming season, next year might be even rougher.
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
The Sqwaks just need to hit cruise control and put their talons up for this one. They haven't looked capable of that all year, but I think they can get it done comfortably against a familiar (new haircut?) QB.
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT
The Lions have looked more like the Lions of yesteryear recently, and now get to be spanked at home in front of fans who at one point were certain they had this whole playoff thing locked up. Woe, the ides of Janurary.
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI
The Ravens just lost their season by scoring too quickly. Chances are, they haven't gotten over it inside the locker room just yet.
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Both teams are a bit of an enigma to me right now. Going with the home one.
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS
Stupid Jacksonville hurt my man. Damn you Jags. Damn you.
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
They could rest their starters. They won't. Even if I had insider info that Brady won't take a snap, it wouldn't justify taking the Dolphins here.
BUFFALO @ NEW YORK JETS
Tyrod Taylor has been benched, so EJ Manuel will get to test his mettle this week against a Jets team that is probably less interested in playing than the rest of the Bills are. If you know what's good for you, don't watch this game.
DALLAS @ PHILIDELHPIA
The Cowboys had every reason to give their starters a rest last week against Detroit. I think they actually do rest them this week, and the Eagles win accordingly. Lane Johnson looked every bit as good against the G-men as the Philly faithful could have expected, now if only Dallas could figure out New York...
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
The Browns, to the surprise of many, got their first win against a depleted Chargers team, making it a rough week 16 for us Lions fans. We now get to wonder how many years we might have to wait for another 0-16 team to join us in historical abomination. Pittsburgh hits the gas, then coasts 3 quarters.
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
The Saints are trying to reach .500, and the Falcons are playing for a first round bye. Atlanta is also expecting at least one more win in the Georgia Dome before the doors are shuttered for good this offseason. Usually a stadium's last ride is cause for away teams to worry. Not so at the Joe in Detroit so far, but that's a story for another blog.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
Washington needs a W to get into the playoffs. DeSean Jackson is having himself a year, averaging almost 20 yards a catch over the last 4. As good as the Giants are, I think OBJ will be slowed by Norman, particularly when McAdoo has no reason to risk his stars in a game that's all cost / no benefit.
OAKLAND @ DENVER
I want to see Denver take this game seriously. However, I don't see any incentive to risk injuries this week just to potentially reward Kansas City. I think playing backups makes much more sense if you are heading into the postseason, but I've never had to answer to a player on my fantasy team when he gets hurt week 17. Paxton Lynch can use all the reps he can get. Oakland still wants this AFC West title, in part to forget their own QB issues, which almost certainly will dash their SB hopes.
When you come to a fork in the road, take it. - Yogi Berra
Friday, December 30, 2016
Thursday, December 22, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Sitting nice and pretty at +1200 on Thursdays. Gonna slow roll the next few to keep things in the green.
1ST TD SCORER - OBJ +500
ANYTIME TD SCORER - OBJ -140
ANYTIME TD SCORER - R. MATTHEWS +120
RUSH YARDS - R. JENNINGS - UNDER 40 1/2 (-105)
RUSH YARDS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 55 1/2 (-125)
RECEPTIONS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 1/2 (-175)
Imma take it light this week, a returning Lane Johnson has me spooked. He could return the Eagles to respectability, or he could show some rust. The Giants won't wait to test him. I think he's a factor, but not a game changer.
Ouch. Rough total for the year, +750
1ST TD SCORER - OBJ +500
ANYTIME TD SCORER - OBJ -140
ANYTIME TD SCORER - R. MATTHEWS +120
RUSH YARDS - R. JENNINGS - UNDER 40 1/2 (-105)
RUSH YARDS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 55 1/2 (-125)
RECEPTIONS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 1/2 (-175)
Imma take it light this week, a returning Lane Johnson has me spooked. He could return the Eagles to respectability, or he could show some rust. The Giants won't wait to test him. I think he's a factor, but not a game changer.
Ouch. Rough total for the year, +750
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Week 16 NFL Picks
The sun is shining, the day is Wednesday and my blog is early. Weird. The common thread of these final weeks is "who wants it more?" Most people will say "I do" before considering what "it" is. I just want to stop all the wanting.
TENNESSE @ JACKSONVILLE
The Jags should get out of the way of their "rivals" from Nashville just so the Texans don't default their way to the AFC South.
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY
The Pack has nothing to lose and yards to gain on a tired Minnesota defense.
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
Seattle is already in the playoffs, and Arizona is already not. The Seahawks, despite having a GB-shaped bruise, are still who we thought they were: NFC North champs. They need to stay focused on the task at hand, which is pretty easy for this team at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES
This week on Loser Bowl: So-Cal Edition: We have a spectacular, horrendous game where everybody loses and the points don't matter. Being the first winnable game for either team in a long while, I think it stays close throughout, as players try their darndest to stay out of the CFL.
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Even new, unique, horsehoes won't fix the Broncos' running problems. Remember the Titans?
DETROIT @ DALLAS
Tate ≠ OBJ, Stafford > Eli, EZ-E vs. Ziggy. The comparisons between the Lions and Giants are fairley straightforward. I think they get back to their winning ways after a few tough weeks.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILIDELPHIA
The Giants still have plenty to lose, the Eagles are just plain tired of losing. They have spotted a silver lining in Lane Johnson's shadow, but I don't think he can stop the playoff bound from doing what they do.
MIAMI @ BUFFALO
Matt Moore looked pretty good in his highly-anticipated return, and I think he's capable of the same this week. He's 32, a free agent in 2018 and deserving of many props for performing well when called upon. Houston could have saved themselves 70 mil if they wanted a decent backup.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
This registers a 2 on the Bristol-Stool scale.
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND
Maybe a loud 3?
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO
Fun Fact: Bears boil their potatoes before mashing them. Only certain types, mind you.
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Go with the flow, Luke. Your mind matters more than this game does. Julio Jones should be well rested and ready to get back to work on the road. I don't expect it to be easy, but I do think the Falcons eek this one out.
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND
Indy seems like a prime candidate for mattress of the week. While Oakland has their ticket punched, Indy has no path. Neither team seems interested in playing much defense. The way this year has gone, Oakland will get a play or two from Kalil Mack and seal it.
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The fairy dust is finally on the floor. The fans are all clapped out. The Bucs are still quite dangerous, but I think they lost some serious swagger in Dallas. The worst good team won't be able to regain it quickly enough to beat Brees in the Superdome.
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON
To: Refs:
CC: CIN Secondary
The Titans could use some help. Make Week 17 great again.
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
Game of the week, every time it's played. A truly capable defense will be tasked with stopping the three headed hydra that the fantasy projectors were all abuzz about during the preseason. Le'Veon put me on his back a' la Greg Jennings and carried me into the finals of my fantasy league. Apologies to anybody who had to watch that from the wrong side. He should have had 4 doh.
TENNESSE @ JACKSONVILLE
The Jags should get out of the way of their "rivals" from Nashville just so the Texans don't default their way to the AFC South.
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY
The Pack has nothing to lose and yards to gain on a tired Minnesota defense.
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
Seattle is already in the playoffs, and Arizona is already not. The Seahawks, despite having a GB-shaped bruise, are still who we thought they were: NFC North champs. They need to stay focused on the task at hand, which is pretty easy for this team at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES
This week on Loser Bowl: So-Cal Edition: We have a spectacular, horrendous game where everybody loses and the points don't matter. Being the first winnable game for either team in a long while, I think it stays close throughout, as players try their darndest to stay out of the CFL.
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Even new, unique, horsehoes won't fix the Broncos' running problems. Remember the Titans?
DETROIT @ DALLAS
Tate ≠ OBJ, Stafford > Eli, EZ-E vs. Ziggy. The comparisons between the Lions and Giants are fairley straightforward. I think they get back to their winning ways after a few tough weeks.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILIDELPHIA
The Giants still have plenty to lose, the Eagles are just plain tired of losing. They have spotted a silver lining in Lane Johnson's shadow, but I don't think he can stop the playoff bound from doing what they do.
MIAMI @ BUFFALO
Matt Moore looked pretty good in his highly-anticipated return, and I think he's capable of the same this week. He's 32, a free agent in 2018 and deserving of many props for performing well when called upon. Houston could have saved themselves 70 mil if they wanted a decent backup.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
This registers a 2 on the Bristol-Stool scale.
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND
Maybe a loud 3?
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO
Fun Fact: Bears boil their potatoes before mashing them. Only certain types, mind you.
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Go with the flow, Luke. Your mind matters more than this game does. Julio Jones should be well rested and ready to get back to work on the road. I don't expect it to be easy, but I do think the Falcons eek this one out.
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND
Indy seems like a prime candidate for mattress of the week. While Oakland has their ticket punched, Indy has no path. Neither team seems interested in playing much defense. The way this year has gone, Oakland will get a play or two from Kalil Mack and seal it.
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The fairy dust is finally on the floor. The fans are all clapped out. The Bucs are still quite dangerous, but I think they lost some serious swagger in Dallas. The worst good team won't be able to regain it quickly enough to beat Brees in the Superdome.
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON
To: Refs:
CC: CIN Secondary
The Titans could use some help. Make Week 17 great again.
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
Game of the week, every time it's played. A truly capable defense will be tasked with stopping the three headed hydra that the fantasy projectors were all abuzz about during the preseason. Le'Veon put me on his back a' la Greg Jennings and carried me into the finals of my fantasy league. Apologies to anybody who had to watch that from the wrong side. He should have had 4 doh.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Week 15 NFL Picks
This week, the usual suspects are all more or less expected to win, and I just don't buy it. SEA-LA set me back a bit, but -157 adheres to the odd number rule and is therefore OK with me.
LOS ANGELES @ SEATTLE
The Rams absolutely lost the trade they made last year with the Titans. They gave up a 1st and a 3rd for Goff, who we all know is a hot pile of trash on a rusty tin roof. Now they get to watch the Titans get WAAAY better than they already are next year and have to somehow build around Goff with no picks. Cellar, meet Rams. Rams, Cellar.
DETROIT @ NEW YORK GIANTS
I've gone against the Lions too much already this year. It's embarrassing enough to be the last one on my home team's bandwagon, but Seattle was a great place to snow-bird while the Ford-owned franchise found its sea legs the same year they lost Megatron. Both teams have to throw, I think Stafford and Big-Play Slay can force Eli to make some more funny faces.
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
This one is complicated. I think to compare Denver and KC would be to do the Chiefs a disservice, but there are plenty of parallels. The Broncos secondary certainly scared Mariota from throwing anywhere near his own wideouts. Kansas City will keep them quiet for a second straight week. However, the Titans defense might be sneaky good without Cox around to screw it up. All Mariota has to do is hit a few deep throws to win this game. My backup guess: He loses the game on his first red-zone pick.
INDIANAPOILIS @ MINNESOTA
Waffling here. Sam Bradford and TY Hilton are both questionable at time-of-post, if one of them can go, and the other can't, I reserve the right to mulligan. My gut says Minnesota is too good on D to let a one dimensional offense like the Colts beat them at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA
The story leading in to this one surrounds Julio's toe, and whether or not to sit your star because there's a good excuse. Simply no way Chip beats a playoff team.
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA
The Saints are too bad on defense to beat any team that ranks in the top 10 on that side of the ball. They can win in a shootout, or not at all.
MIAMI @ NEW YORK JETS
Matt Moore's last win came 5 years ago against the Jets. I think he's a good enough backup to get the job done on the road, especially since he's across Bryce Petty. The Jets should keep Ajayi bottled up. It will probably come down to special teams and turnovers, just like the previous bout.
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
Chicago held Detroit to within 3, I think they can make Green Bay sweat a little more than the Seahawks did last week. The Bears secondary only allows 235 yards through the air, they could sneak up on some folks from Wisconsin who celebrated a little longer than usual after their last W.
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON
Jacksonville played Houston tight once, I for one hope they can win this one. But I wouldn't try to convince anybody else their offense can get it done against a Houston defense that specializes in stopping aerial attacks.
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO
The Browns are not worth disparaging further.
PHILIDELPHIA @ BALTIMORE
Baltimore still has it all to play for. Philly doesn't, and after seeing 3 more Eagles go down to injuries, I doubt they find a way to play with the required intensity. The Eagles are 1-6 on the road to boot. Wentzlmania has officially hit it's first goose patch. Expect the boo birds to blame yet another coach for their own failings (letting/making Andy Reid go).
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI
The Bengals usually sport a stout rush defense, but this year they allow close to 120 yards a game. That won't cut it against Le'Veon Bell and Co. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Bengals, but most sportswriters favor the Steelers, including this one.
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER
Denver has the hardest 3-game slate in NFL history between them and the playoffs (Three 10+ win teams in a row). The scheduling gods have it out for last year's Cinderella.
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO
Sandy Eggo is just waaay too beat up to win games. I don't give them any chance of upsetting the Raiders, especially without Melvin Gordon or any of their usual WR's. This is my lock of the week, if you're asking.
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS
Tampa Bay has that "it" factor that Dallas had in the preseason. Jameis has his team playing together. The defense and the offense have each other's back. "Special D" has far too many egos to satisfy individually before they can determine what is best for the team as a whole.
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON
Jordan Reed is the ex factor here, and another swing vote injury. I think Carolina can win this game if they don't have to worry about the pass-catching TE. Motivation is starting to be a serious question in Carolina, as they can't help but take their eyes off the football when they all know they're going to get to the golf course early.
Quotient Quotables:
"Outlaws are can openers in the supermarket of life." Still Life With Woodpecker - Tom Robbins
LOS ANGELES @ SEATTLE
The Rams absolutely lost the trade they made last year with the Titans. They gave up a 1st and a 3rd for Goff, who we all know is a hot pile of trash on a rusty tin roof. Now they get to watch the Titans get WAAAY better than they already are next year and have to somehow build around Goff with no picks. Cellar, meet Rams. Rams, Cellar.
DETROIT @ NEW YORK GIANTS
I've gone against the Lions too much already this year. It's embarrassing enough to be the last one on my home team's bandwagon, but Seattle was a great place to snow-bird while the Ford-owned franchise found its sea legs the same year they lost Megatron. Both teams have to throw, I think Stafford and Big-Play Slay can force Eli to make some more funny faces.
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
This one is complicated. I think to compare Denver and KC would be to do the Chiefs a disservice, but there are plenty of parallels. The Broncos secondary certainly scared Mariota from throwing anywhere near his own wideouts. Kansas City will keep them quiet for a second straight week. However, the Titans defense might be sneaky good without Cox around to screw it up. All Mariota has to do is hit a few deep throws to win this game. My backup guess: He loses the game on his first red-zone pick.
INDIANAPOILIS @ MINNESOTA
Waffling here. Sam Bradford and TY Hilton are both questionable at time-of-post, if one of them can go, and the other can't, I reserve the right to mulligan. My gut says Minnesota is too good on D to let a one dimensional offense like the Colts beat them at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA
The story leading in to this one surrounds Julio's toe, and whether or not to sit your star because there's a good excuse. Simply no way Chip beats a playoff team.
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA
The Saints are too bad on defense to beat any team that ranks in the top 10 on that side of the ball. They can win in a shootout, or not at all.
MIAMI @ NEW YORK JETS
Matt Moore's last win came 5 years ago against the Jets. I think he's a good enough backup to get the job done on the road, especially since he's across Bryce Petty. The Jets should keep Ajayi bottled up. It will probably come down to special teams and turnovers, just like the previous bout.
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
Chicago held Detroit to within 3, I think they can make Green Bay sweat a little more than the Seahawks did last week. The Bears secondary only allows 235 yards through the air, they could sneak up on some folks from Wisconsin who celebrated a little longer than usual after their last W.
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON
Jacksonville played Houston tight once, I for one hope they can win this one. But I wouldn't try to convince anybody else their offense can get it done against a Houston defense that specializes in stopping aerial attacks.
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO
The Browns are not worth disparaging further.
PHILIDELPHIA @ BALTIMORE
Baltimore still has it all to play for. Philly doesn't, and after seeing 3 more Eagles go down to injuries, I doubt they find a way to play with the required intensity. The Eagles are 1-6 on the road to boot. Wentzlmania has officially hit it's first goose patch. Expect the boo birds to blame yet another coach for their own failings (letting/making Andy Reid go).
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI
The Bengals usually sport a stout rush defense, but this year they allow close to 120 yards a game. That won't cut it against Le'Veon Bell and Co. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Bengals, but most sportswriters favor the Steelers, including this one.
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER
Denver has the hardest 3-game slate in NFL history between them and the playoffs (Three 10+ win teams in a row). The scheduling gods have it out for last year's Cinderella.
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO
Sandy Eggo is just waaay too beat up to win games. I don't give them any chance of upsetting the Raiders, especially without Melvin Gordon or any of their usual WR's. This is my lock of the week, if you're asking.
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS
Tampa Bay has that "it" factor that Dallas had in the preseason. Jameis has his team playing together. The defense and the offense have each other's back. "Special D" has far too many egos to satisfy individually before they can determine what is best for the team as a whole.
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON
Jordan Reed is the ex factor here, and another swing vote injury. I think Carolina can win this game if they don't have to worry about the pass-catching TE. Motivation is starting to be a serious question in Carolina, as they can't help but take their eyes off the football when they all know they're going to get to the golf course early.
Quotient Quotables:
"Outlaws are can openers in the supermarket of life." Still Life With Woodpecker - Tom Robbins
Thursday Night Props
Oddly, my week 15 total of Thursday Props is 1,357. I kinda want to take the next two off, and just bask in the glory.
FIRST SCORE - RAMS FG +550
FIRST SCORE - SEATTLE TD +120
SCORE IN FIRST 7:30 - YES (-150)
IST TD SCORER - KEARSE +900
1ST TD SCORER - RAWLS +300
TOTAL SCUCCESSFUL FG'S - RAMS - OVER 1/2 (-200)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - R. WILSON - UNDER 25 1/2 +105
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. RAWLS UNDER 77 1/2 (-105)
TOTAL RECIEVING YARDS - T. RAWLS - OVER 12 1/2 (-115)
So, lots to consider in this game. Sherman called these games "poopfests", which has me oddly aroused. Anyways, it's about as appealing to the Vegas crowd. The linett started at 15, which seems about right to me. Lots of unknowns within the Rams organization in a time of midseason transition, which should scream easy W for Seattle. It's just that every time Seattle plays LA, it's supposed to be an easy W. Then 4 sacks and 2 fumbles later, the Hawks get sent packing, like they did earlier this year (disclaimer: not actual statistics from earlier this year). I feel confident they come ready to play after getting schelacked by GB, but I don't think they have an answer for the Earl Thomas sized hole in their secondary. It's just that Goff can't exploit it.
FIRST SCORE - RAMS FG +550
FIRST SCORE - SEATTLE TD +120
SCORE IN FIRST 7:30 - YES (-150)
IST TD SCORER - KEARSE +900
1ST TD SCORER - RAWLS +300
TOTAL SCUCCESSFUL FG'S - RAMS - OVER 1/2 (-200)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - R. WILSON - UNDER 25 1/2 +105
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. RAWLS UNDER 77 1/2 (-105)
TOTAL RECIEVING YARDS - T. RAWLS - OVER 12 1/2 (-115)
So, lots to consider in this game. Sherman called these games "poopfests", which has me oddly aroused. Anyways, it's about as appealing to the Vegas crowd. The linett started at 15, which seems about right to me. Lots of unknowns within the Rams organization in a time of midseason transition, which should scream easy W for Seattle. It's just that every time Seattle plays LA, it's supposed to be an easy W. Then 4 sacks and 2 fumbles later, the Hawks get sent packing, like they did earlier this year (disclaimer: not actual statistics from earlier this year). I feel confident they come ready to play after getting schelacked by GB, but I don't think they have an answer for the Earl Thomas sized hole in their secondary. It's just that Goff can't exploit it.
Saturday, December 10, 2016
Week 14 NFL Picks
Numbahs first. Thursday Night was much more lopsided than expected, and if Oakland could cover a punt, I would have had a nice night. All told, I was down 95 dolares. When it comes to the straight up picks, I'm at 79-41-7. There was some faulty math in the last post, expect to see more in the future. It's since been corrected, and at 0.658%, I'm running at a pretty good clip.
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY
This one pretty much went according to plan. I didn't think Kelce would have the success he did, but in general the Chiefs looked comfortable and confident throughout.
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO - PIT -2
With Sammy Watkins questionable and Shady almost certainly not 100%, I have a hard time seeing the Steelers letting this one slip. The Bills don't have much to play for, and while I expect it to be close, I think Pittsburgh will find a way to win.
DENVER @ TENNESSEE - OVER 44
This is a different story. I think Mariota is scary accurate, and will do much better against the Denver secondary than most people expect. The Broncos allow 123 rypg, good for 28th in the league. If the Titans can't exploit that weakness, I don't know who can. The real question is with the Titans defense, as they finally cut their woeful CB Parish Cox. Brice McCain or rookie LeShaun Sims will get the start. Trevor Siemian is also listed as questionable for the Broncos, who need this game as badly as the Titans do.
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA - WSH -2
Both Jordan and Ryan Matthews are questionable, and I can't think of the last time I saw another Eagle make a play. There is a 70 yard difference in expected offensive yardage in favor of the Redskins. Without Lane Johnson, this Philly team just isn't dangerous. The late-season Redskins are exactly that, and Cousins has been clutch before.
ARIZONA @ MIAMI
Tyran Mathieu and Kiko Alonso are out, so both defenses are missing key pieces. Arizona is much better at stopping the rush than the Dolphins are, allowing about 100 yards a game to Miami's 130. Both teams have to have success running the ball to win, with little separation out wide. Arizona is 1-4 on the road, Miami is 5-1 at home. Not encouraging, until you look at the Dolphins lone home loss which came against Tennessee, another ground-first offense. I think Arizona can overcome their road woes and deal a significant blow to the Fins wildcard chances.
SAN DIEGO @ CAROLINA
Cam Newton and Rivera seem to be in a bit of a tiff at the moment. Losing will test relationships, but the division of play calling responsibility seems to be unduly focused of Kuechly and Rivera, as Cam rarely changes plays at the line or protections.
CINCINATTI @ CLEVELAND
I just can't pick the Browns. I really wanted to.
CHICAGO @ DETROIT - OVER 43 1/2
The only things missing from this game will be nearby, guarding the entrance to Comerica Park. Ohh my, Detroit has finally fielded a decent football team. Of course, I didn't expect them to, and they still lack anything resembling a RB. Jim Bob Cooter should get the NFL equivalent of a gold star, and a head coaching gig as soon as his contract expires. Also, Deandre Levy is back, and does not plan to break again anytime soon.
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS
Pretty much nobody has the Texans this week, which I think is surprising. While they can't score, they excel in the one defensive group that matters when you play the Colts. I expect Brock to make a boneheaded play or two, but I think this will be closer than the 6 1/2 point line suggests.
MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE - OVER 39
Jacksonville is actually better on both sides of the ball when yardage is considered. Their big failings are turnovers ( -18, dead last in the NFL). Minnesota sits at +13, and I expect the gap to grow before this game is through. Bradford has only thrown 3 picks all year.
NEW YORK JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO
The 9ers give up 169 rush yards a game. The Jets only allow 90. Both teams are playing for pride at this point, and with equally shitty passing attacks, the advantage goes to the Jets. I'm somewhat baffled Chip is rethinking the QB situation at this point in the year, particularly when Kaepernick has a 3-1 TD/INT ratio. San Fran also has to overcome whatever the opposite of a home field advantage is, and would probably prefer to play on the road than at Fake-Boob Valley, Lev-I-Early Stadium
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY
Fun Fact: the leading rushers for these two teams combine for 4 TD's. Basically, Tampa Bay's hopes rest squarely on Mike Evans' shoulder pads. I think their defense is good enough to keep the Saints around the 20 point mark, and expect this game to stay tight. Brees and Co have lost close a lot recently, and I expect them to do everything in their power to prevent being eliminated from the NFC South race. The fairy dust will come of Jameis soon enough, but I wouldn't expect it this week.
ATLANTA @ LOS ANGELES
Goff has 509 yards in 3 starts. He just can't throw the deep ball, and Fisher seems content to lose rather than attempt it. The Rams are 4/33 on third down during his tenure at QB, a damning indictment for a pitiful offense.
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY
This one will be fun. Still not over the Fail Mary, the Pack get to enjoy home cooking before testing their QB's bold words against a recently shaken up Seattle LOB. Earl Thomas is out for the year and possibly more after colliding with Kam Chancellor. If he does retire, his diminutive frame will be sorely missed (by no WR who has been properly introduced).
DALLAS @ NEW YORK GIANTS - DAL -4
I, like a vast majority of NFL fans, have been patiently waiting for the Cowboys to slip. They just haven't yet. The Giants will be without JPP, and struggle on 3rd down, regardless of yardage. There are not many justifications for picking against the Cowboys until someone does the improbable.
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND - BAL +7
Another nationally televised game that is sure to live up to it's billing. Tom Brady in a short season has 19 TD's and 1 INT. The Patriots have a point differential of +112, followed closely by Dallas at +105, then Seattle at +70. Nobody will get too much credit for predicting a DAL/NE Super Bowl, but it seems almost inevitable at this point. Baltimore is historically good at stopping the run, but Belichek could win a game without calling a single one.
Thursday, December 8, 2016
Thursday Night Props
In what will surely be the best Thursday Night Football, the two best teams from the best division in the NFL will play for what will most likely amount to the AFC West crown. I should let this
sleeping dog lie, but we both know I can't resist the urge to wake the dog, pretend it was a mistake, and smile at the blur that used to be the cat. The weather is the deciding factor for me. The game will be played in what feels like 10 degrees, a seriously hostile enviroment for any Californian, no matter what Derek Carr says. Justin Houston and Latavius Murray are healthy and will both put their own stamp on this game, but the question remains: Which team will pave it's way to the postseason?
Will either team score 3 unanswered? - No - +145
Margin of Victory - Raiders by 1-6 - +400
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 1-6 - +325
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 7-12 - +450
Anytime TD Scorer - Murray - (-125)
Anytime TD Scorer - Ware - (-120)
Anytime TD Scorer - Crabtree - +125
A. Cooper - Under 5 1/2 Receptions - (-105)
D. Carr - Passing Yards - Under 267 1/2 - (-115)
A. Smith - Passing Yards - Under 252 1/2 (-120)
Longest TD - Under 40 1/2 Yards - (-115)
Defensive or Special Teams Score? - No - (-180)
Seriously though, don't touch this game unless you enjoy nervousness and nail-biting.
Will either team score 3 unanswered? - No - +145
Margin of Victory - Raiders by 1-6 - +400
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 1-6 - +325
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 7-12 - +450
Anytime TD Scorer - Murray - (-125)
Anytime TD Scorer - Ware - (-120)
Anytime TD Scorer - Crabtree - +125
A. Cooper - Under 5 1/2 Receptions - (-105)
D. Carr - Passing Yards - Under 267 1/2 - (-115)
A. Smith - Passing Yards - Under 252 1/2 (-120)
Longest TD - Under 40 1/2 Yards - (-115)
Defensive or Special Teams Score? - No - (-180)
Seriously though, don't touch this game unless you enjoy nervousness and nail-biting.
Saturday, December 3, 2016
Week 13 NFL Picks
Another week is in the books, and still we wait for news of the elusive "sure-thang". Last Sunday I did pretty well (11-2) bringing my straight-up totals to 71-35-7 (.661). I also discovered I still can't math good. Apologies. The games on Thursday I did not pick I will consider draws, even though I would have gone with the favorites. I was awful close to a mic-drop on Thursday night, reminding myself why it's nice to only lose in theory.
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA
With Poe and Houston both questionable, the rest of the Kansas City defense will have to put in the same sort of effort they found in Denver. This is a huge game in relation to playoff odds for both teams. Tampa Bay nips at the heels of the Falcons in the NFC South, and the Chiefs hope to stay in front of the Broncos who are all but guaranteed to win in Jacksonville.
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS
I think New Orleans is due for a letdown after they schelacked Gregg Williams and the Rams. Detroit seems due for a letdown of their own, after repeated late escapes. I like the Under at 53 1/2, based on how much both teams will understand what a two-score deficit means to their playoff hopes.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND
Gronk is out, which is cause for worry in Patriot nation. Not this week though, Brady is gunning for the title of winningest QB in NFL history, and I do not think the Rams have enough on offense to make him wait.
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE
Denard Robinson is in, but Allen Hurns is out, leaving a one dimensional offense even more limited than usual. Julius Thomas is out as well, so a bit of the homecoming drama will be missing. Paxton Lynch gets the start, and he is the only potential roadblock between the Broncos and another road W.
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY
Aaron Rodgers must be grateful Clooney will have to sit this game out. Without Watt and Clooney, I still expect to see the Packers struggle keeping Rodgers upright. Matthews has shifted to ILB for the Pack, and I think the front 7 get into Brock's head enough to win what is essentially a playoff game.
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINATTI
Wentz needs to get his swagger back, I think this is a good opportunity to do that. The Bengals have obvious flaws, but they will not go gently into the night.
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The Ravens can boast the best rush defense in DVOA history, a remarkable statistic for a team that would be .500 if they lose. Miami has played their way into a wild card spot, this game will be a fun one to watch.
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO
ESPN said it best: "Bears - 49er's biggest impact could be on 17' draft ...somebody has to win"
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND
Buffalo is plagued with injuries, with Watkins, Ihedigbo, and Dareus all questionable. Oakland looks like the team to challenge New England in the AFC.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH
The G-Men are on a 6 game win streak and still trail Dallas. I think they make the playoffs, but lose a few games first, including this one.
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA
The Redskins have played very well in recent weeks, I don't think Arizona can keep up.
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO
I have to use this space to issue a personal apology to James Winston. I wrote him off after his CFB collapse against Oregon. Not only has he developed into a useful QB, he has quite a knack for leadership. Big ups.
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE
When your team signs Dan France off the CLE practice squad, there are legitimate causes for concern.
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW YORK JETS
I really want the Colts to lose this one, but I can't think of a good reason they will.
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA
With Poe and Houston both questionable, the rest of the Kansas City defense will have to put in the same sort of effort they found in Denver. This is a huge game in relation to playoff odds for both teams. Tampa Bay nips at the heels of the Falcons in the NFC South, and the Chiefs hope to stay in front of the Broncos who are all but guaranteed to win in Jacksonville.
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS
I think New Orleans is due for a letdown after they schelacked Gregg Williams and the Rams. Detroit seems due for a letdown of their own, after repeated late escapes. I like the Under at 53 1/2, based on how much both teams will understand what a two-score deficit means to their playoff hopes.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND
Gronk is out, which is cause for worry in Patriot nation. Not this week though, Brady is gunning for the title of winningest QB in NFL history, and I do not think the Rams have enough on offense to make him wait.
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE
Denard Robinson is in, but Allen Hurns is out, leaving a one dimensional offense even more limited than usual. Julius Thomas is out as well, so a bit of the homecoming drama will be missing. Paxton Lynch gets the start, and he is the only potential roadblock between the Broncos and another road W.
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY
Aaron Rodgers must be grateful Clooney will have to sit this game out. Without Watt and Clooney, I still expect to see the Packers struggle keeping Rodgers upright. Matthews has shifted to ILB for the Pack, and I think the front 7 get into Brock's head enough to win what is essentially a playoff game.
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINATTI
Wentz needs to get his swagger back, I think this is a good opportunity to do that. The Bengals have obvious flaws, but they will not go gently into the night.
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The Ravens can boast the best rush defense in DVOA history, a remarkable statistic for a team that would be .500 if they lose. Miami has played their way into a wild card spot, this game will be a fun one to watch.
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO
ESPN said it best: "Bears - 49er's biggest impact could be on 17' draft ...somebody has to win"
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND
Buffalo is plagued with injuries, with Watkins, Ihedigbo, and Dareus all questionable. Oakland looks like the team to challenge New England in the AFC.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH
The G-Men are on a 6 game win streak and still trail Dallas. I think they make the playoffs, but lose a few games first, including this one.
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA
The Redskins have played very well in recent weeks, I don't think Arizona can keep up.
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO
I have to use this space to issue a personal apology to James Winston. I wrote him off after his CFB collapse against Oregon. Not only has he developed into a useful QB, he has quite a knack for leadership. Big ups.
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE
When your team signs Dan France off the CLE practice squad, there are legitimate causes for concern.
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW YORK JETS
I really want the Colts to lose this one, but I can't think of a good reason they will.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Just sitting down to watch this one, I expect quite a match.
First FG - DAL - + 300
First FG - MIN - + 400
First TD - E. Elliott - + 300
First TD - Thielen - + 1200
No TD - + 5000
Total Sacks - DAL - OVER 2 (-115)
If Dallas can run the ball in the first half, I think the game is over. The Vikings will have a lot of problems if they need to put the ball in the air (unlike Mr. Brady, who seems to be a natural).
First FG - DAL - + 300
First FG - MIN - + 400
First TD - E. Elliott - + 300
First TD - Thielen - + 1200
No TD - + 5000
Total Sacks - DAL - OVER 2 (-115)
If Dallas can run the ball in the first half, I think the game is over. The Vikings will have a lot of problems if they need to put the ball in the air (unlike Mr. Brady, who seems to be a natural).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)