Week 6 NFL Picks

PHI @ CAR
DET @ NO (DET +5)
SF @ WSH
CHI @ BAL
CLE @ HOU
MIA @ ATL (ATL -13.5)
GB @ MIN (GB-3)
NE @ NYJ
TB @ ARI
LAR @ JAX
LAC @ OAK
PIT @ KC (KC-3.5)
NYG @ DEN (DEN -13)
IND @ TEN

Monday Night Props

TOTAL FG - OVER 1 1/2 - CHICAGO - (+115)
LONGEST TD - MIN - (-130)
TOTAL TD PASSES - S. BRADFORD - OVER 1 1/2 (-105)

Week 5 NFL Picks

NE @ TB
SEA @ LAR (LAR +0)
CAR @ DET (DET -2)
TEN @ MIA
KC @ HOU (OVER 45)
BUF @ CIN (BUF +3)
NYJ @ CLE (NYJ +0)
SF @ IND
LAC @ NYG
ARI @ PHI
JAX @ PIT
BAL @ OAK
GB @ DAL
MIN @ CHI

TOTAL: Before the start of week 5, I am 33-30 SU 10-10 ATS

Monday Night Props

TOTAL TD PASSES - A.SMITH - OVER 1 1/2 - (-150)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - K.HUNT - (-200)
TOTAL SACKS - UNDER 5 - (+105)

Week 4 NFL Picks

GB @ CHI

NO V MIA (NO-3)

BUF @ ATL

CIN @ CLE (CIN-3) (OVER 42)

LAR @ DAL (LAR +6)

DET @ MIN

CAR @ NE

JAX @ NYJ

PIT @ BAL

TEN @ HOU (TEN -1.5 and OVER 43.5)

SF @ ARI

PHI @ LAC

NYG @ TB (OVER 44)

OAK @ DEN

IND @ SEA (IND +13)

WSH @ KC

UPDATE: added 3 more bets. LAR +6, NO -3, and CIN/CLE OVER 42.

Monday Night Props

RECEPTIONS  - D. BRYANT - UNDER 5  - (-125)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - E. ELLIOT - (-175)

UPDATE: This week +137.14
TOTAL: -11.83 (+278.17 since wk 1)

Week 3 NFL Picks

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO

BALTIMORE V. JACKSONVILLE - IN LONDON

DENVER @ BUFFALO (-3 1/2)

PITTSBURGH @ CHICAGO

ATLANTA @ DETROIT

CLEVELAND @ INDIANAPOLIS

TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA

HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND

MIAMI @ NEW YORK JETS

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA (-6)

NEW ORLEANS  @ CAROLINA

SEATTLE @ TENNESSEE (-3)

CINCINNATI @ GREEN BAY (-8)

KANSAS CITY @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3 1/2)

OAKLAND @ WASHINGTON

DALLAS @ ARIZONA

UPDATE: I went 7-9 this week, 2-3 ATS.
TOTALS: 24-22 straight up, 5-7ATS

Monday Night Props

SCORE IN FIRST 7 MIN 30 SEC OF 1ST QUARTER - YES - (-150)

TOTAL RECEPTIONS - B. MARSHALL - UNDER 4 - (-115)

TOTAL TD PASSES - M. STAFFORD - OVER 1 1/2 - (-135)

UPDATE: +61.03
TOTAL:  -148.97

Week 2 NFL Picks

HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI

PHILADELPHIA  @ KANSAS CITY

TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE

SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE (SEA -14)

CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE

BUFFALO @ CAROLINA

ARIZONA @ INDIANAPOLIS (ARI -7 1/2)

NEW ENGLAND @ NEW ORLEANS (NE -7)

MINNESOTA @ PITTSBURGH

CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY

MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

NEW YORK JETS @ OAKLAND (OAK -13 1/2)

DALLAS @ DENVER

WASHINGTON @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA

DETROIT @ NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 43 1/2)

UPDATE: I went 11-5 this week, 2-3 ATS.
TOTALS: 17-13 straight up, 3-4 ATS

Thursday Night Props

Another turdsday night stinker. I am going to rethink when I do the props, Mondays seem like the better date. Anyways, in what is universally being hailed as an ugly game, the only thing I'm comfortable rooting for are sacks and field goals.


TOTAL RUSH YARDS - A. DALTON - UNDER 7.5 - (-115)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - D. WATSON - UNDER 25 1/2 - (+120)
TOTAL SUCCESFUL FG - OVER 3 1/2 - (-105)

UPDATE: +80 on the night. One stupid play away from perfect.
TOTAL: -210

Week 1 NFL Picks

KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots can score in a lot of different ways. The Chiefs simply don't have the firepower to keep up. They'll need some big special teams or defensive plays just to keep within striking distance in Foxborough. Update: Well, a tough night for NE was hard to see coming but long overdue

ARIZONA @ DETROIT

Detroit's rookie LB Jarrad Davis will be tested early and often. The pass defense was a huge liability in 2016  (ranked 32nd). While I wouldn't bet against Matthew Stafford late in a close game, I think Arizona's defense will make a play or two and win this one for the road team.

OAKLAND @ TENNESSEE

This was a close game last year and I expect another one this time around. I don't think Tennessee's defense is going to be ready for BeastMode 2.0, but Mariota has some new toys on offense as well. The Oakland secondary will be tested, I don't think they can hang.

SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY

This game marks the return of Eddie Lacy, but exactly how much action he gets in a crowded Seattle backfield remains to be seen. Another classic pick'em between two playoff caliber teams. 

NEW YORK JETS @ BUFFALO

Even though they have an excellent run defense and Buffalo is run-heavy, I just can't pick the Jets.Vegas moved heavily in favor of Buffalo. This line opened at -5 and at time of writing, sits at -9 in favor of the Bills. I probably won't pick NYJ to win a single game this year, and I would rather live with the couple of wins they are bound to scrape up then go out on a limb for them this early.

ATLANTA @ CHICAGO (ATL -7)

I think Atlanta benefits from seeing Mike Glennon instead of Mitch Trubisky at QB for the Bears. Mitch has showed well in the preseason, I don't think it will be too long before he's taking the snaps in Chicago. I expect them to lose until he wins the starting job.

BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI

With Flacco questionable to start the season, I'll stick with the home team in what should be a tight one. Cincinnati is healthy for now and I just don't see where Baltimore is going to get their offense from.

PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND

Rookie QB in his first start? Easy choice here. 

JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON

Tom Savage is another placeholder QB meant to alleviate the pressure on a rookie, in this case, Deshawn Watson. He's not going to play well, but I think Bortles will play worse.

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI

Postponed to Week 11

PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON

 I think it will take a few weeks for Washington to gel together as a team. Washington has won 5 straight against Philly, I think this week the Eagles get some revenge.

INDIANAPOLIS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

The better defense wins here, with the added bonus of a team playing at home for the first time. The Colts are in for a long year. 

CAROLINA @ SAN FRANCISCO

I am not very high on Carolina this year. Could be closer than most people expect (Carolina is a 6 point favorite). I expect Hoyer to keep SF within striking distance.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS

The Giants will continue to be Dallas' bugaboo, as they match up very well against the Cowboys rushing attack and are built to exploit a rebuilt Dallas secondary.

NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA

Minnesota's offense was woeful in 2016, I simply haven't seen enough from them yet to think they can keep up with a Saints team that is sure to put at least a few points on the board.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ DENVER (LAC +3)

Re-signing Brock Osweiler is a sign of a team in crisis. While Denver's defense is stout, I like the Chargers in an upset. 


Update: Yuck. 6-8 straight up, 1-1 ATS.

Thursday Night Props

Just the bare bones for now.

xTEAM TO RECORD MORE 1ST DOWNS - PATRIOTS - (-200)
xLONGEST TD YARDAGE - UNDER 43 1/2 - (115)
+TOTAL RECEPTIONS - GRONKOWSKI - UNDER 5 - (+110)
xTOTAL RECEPTIONS - T. HILL - UNDER 4 1/2 - (+120)
xTOTAL TOUCHDOWNS - UNDER 5 1/2 - (-125)

Update:

OUCH. -290 to start the year.

Super Bowl

I got all my props right, righting the ship from the Houston-Oakland debacle. Right now for the playoffs I'm sitting at +385 on the props, and exactly even straight up.


Atlanta right now is at +3. The Falcons are blitzing a lot more in the playoffs, which is pretty much the only way to stop a QB as good as Brady. Aaron Rodgers was playing close to Brady-level, but he had no run game to bring the safeties up.


I think the game will stay close, and the Falcons seem like they have the edge. Picking the Pats to win again would make for a rather hollow victory. My personal bias cannot stand for it, and I think that's how most of the league feels as well.


I'm picking Atlanta straight up, and playing it safe on the props.


SCORE IN FINAL 2:00 OF 1ST HALF (-275)
NO PENALTIES FOR EXCESSIVE CELEBRATION (-400)
SCORE IN THE FIRST 7:30 OF 1ST QUARTER (-225)

Postgame: Uhh, WTF just happened? That may have been the most fantastic example of the game of football I've ever seen, and I for one don't expect to ever see another game anything like it. "The Catch" is now Edleman's. I walked away from the TV. Luckily I returned in time to see it. The Superbowl as a spectacle is over now, we may as well give up on seeing a better one. Lady Gaga spelunking the stadium was fierce; she should have been the talk of a boring blowout. The Falcons will have to own the biggest second half collapse ever. It's days, and games, like this that make being a Lions fan so easy. Did we win the Superbowl? No. But we didn't LOSE the Superbowl either. This team will probably never get it's mojo back, not as long as the Patriots are around to remind them of the ring they should have had. The Lions, however, will celebrate their postseason berth and can happily reminisce about 2016 for years to come. So, +346 on the postseason. -1 straight up. Thoughts and prayers go out to all the people who put serious dough on Atlanta.

Conference Championship Props

Back on the waggin' with some prop bets for the first of today's games. Pretty much everybody knows how this first game is going to go, so, in a shift to realistic bettor fashion, I will stick to the game with an expected outcome and not let the NFL's TV scheduling dictate who gets props. :P


ALTERNATE TOTAL - OVER 53 1/2 - (-275)
ALTERNATE TOTAL - UNDER 70 1/2 - (-325)
ANYTIME TD - D. ADAMS - (EVEN)
ANYTIME TD - D. FREEMAN - (-125)
ANYTIME TD - J.COOK - +125
ANYTIME TD - J.JONES - (-150)


I don't know how deep Belichek can hide plays up a sleeveless sweatshirt, but I do know better than to try to guess. I think points are probably going to flow freely in both games. I'll add a Blount TD, because it fits the "old team who cut him" narrative, even though he basically forced them to. I also suspect the Pats rested him specifically so they could rely on him being a factor today. The odds of this game being a defensive struggle are much higher, but like I've said before, you should take a lot of salt with anybody's prediction.


ANYTIME TD - L. BLOUNT (-125)

NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Meh. 2-2 last week, but I feel like I should have seen the two losses coming. Aaron Rodgers is on another level, and LeVeon Bell is as close as anybody to reaching it (Frogger reference in the works). That pretty much betrays how I feel about Sunday's games, except for a sneaking suspicion that the well rested Pats will have saved half their playbook for the next two games.


GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA (GB +4 1/2)


Atlanta had a much easier time dismantling an undermanned Seattle secondary than many expected. They could never boast a strong defense though, and I think Rodgers is as close to a runaway train as a player can be. When he said "run the table" I don't think he meant "regular season table".


PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND


 The Steelers have issues on defense. There were plenty of opportunities for Kansas City to win last week. New England had the easiest schedule in the league this year, and has not been tested by an opponent of this caliber. I usually give the edge to the team who has played in more tough games, but I also don't usually go against the Pats. LeGarette Blount is the X-factor here, having been cut by the Steelers. I expect a Patriot W, but I'll be rooting for the Steelers to score one against the evil empire.

Quotient quotables:

"As you know I'm not on Snapface and all that, so I don't really get those," he said. "I'm really just worried about getting our team ready to go. I'm not really too worried about what they put on Instantchat, or whatever it is."

- Belichek on the Brown/Tomlin locker room video.

NFL Playoffs - First Round

So, how best to erase the taste of a bad loss in Houston? More football, of course  I'm sticking with the home teams this time, but since posting I've changed my mind on the Pittsburgh/KC tilt. Nothing in particular warranted the switch, I just don't think KC will be able to score enough. I'm taking the line off on that game as well, and I had the Dallas line backwards, they're 4.5 point favorites.

Update: Sticking with a recent theme, I will now chicken out of my Pittsburgh pick. Back to KC and a full slate of home cookin'.

SEATTLE @ ATLANTA (SEA+4 1/2)

Atlanta probably should have won the prior meeting in Seattle. For those that missed it, there was a no-call on Sherman that prevented the Falcons from kicking what almost certainly would have been a game winning field goal. This Seattle team is inconsistent, and on the road. Not saying it's impossible, just sayin'.

HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND (NE - 15)

Now I will say it's impossible. There's no way the least hospitable B-and-B in New England let Osweiler get comfortable on the road. New England is essentially getting a bye all the way to the conference finals when you consider the level of competition in the other AFC semifinal. Somebody should make sure Brady doesn't de-fluff the pillows.

PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY

This one is going to be good. Kansas City's secondary will most likely take Antonio Brown out of the game and force the Steelers to beat them on the ground. The Titans have drafted the blueprint to do just that, but, without a Delanie Walker-type TE, I don't think PIT can replicate. Kansas City just doesn't have the offensive weapons to keep up if Pittsburgh can turn this into a shootout.

GREEN BAY @ DALLAS (DAL -4 1/2)

Aaron Rodgers blew the top of the NY Giants last week, without breaking a sweat. OBJ's awful case of the drops (or Eli's usual case of inaccuracy) was what truly put the game on it's head. The Giants couldn't get their D off the field, I think the Pack will be the ones having a hard time getting their own to the bench in this one. See: Previous meeting at Lambeau, which GB never looked competitive in.

Wild Card Props - Sunday (Live)

Hey, so a busy morning prevented me from the obligatory pregame post. I'll be taking the prop bets off, but wanted to let y'all know I was down with the Packers and Steelers before it was cool.


I haven't tabulated yesterday, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't good. In a rare instance of not doing my homework, I had no idea the Raiders LT was out. Anybody trying to stop Clowney in his first game at a new position on the road is going to have a bad time,  especially when the Center goes out as well. Anyways, enough whining. On to some better football. (I hope)




Update: I'd like to amend my picks already. A: Turns out the Steelers already won, but I was ignorant of the start time, so I'm not giving myself credit for that one. And B: The Packers look real shitty. The Giants just need to keep chuckin' it.


Update: I'd like to return to my original pick. Good thing I wasn't going to award myself the take-backsies anyways. Uncle Moe is back on the Packers side and I think they'll get the turnover they need. The Giants D has played lights out so far, and without Jordy, it will be tough. Rodgers is in his zone though, and Eli is Eli.

Update to the Update: screw that. Points for  Kyle's Pittsburgh pick. Also what game is this?!? Here I thought we were in a defensive struggle. Pack's up 21-13.

Update: Good thing I didn't update all year. This is tiring. Talk about a game of two halves.

Wild Card Props - Saturday

Finally, the playoffs are here. My season average straight-up was .660, which is pretty damn good in comparison to the sportswriters around the league. Of course, I started late, so there is an asterisk. I won my Fantasy League, mostly because Le'Veon Bell carried me through the last few weeks.


The Raiders are hoping another ex-Spartan, Conner Cook, can guide them through a similar predicament. I usually don't trust rooks, but I've seen this kid play more than most and I think he outguns Osweiler this afternoon. Cook was routinely clutch in college, as many Michigan and Notre Dame fans know all too well. Houston will surely improve on last year's showing, but I don't think they run effectively enough to win. Neither team should expect to go any further than the second round.


FIRST HALF - OAK +3 (-115)
FIRST HALF TOTAL - OAK - OVER  7 1/2 (-130)
FIRST TD - M.CRABTREE +900
FIRST TD - A.COOPER +900
C.COOK - COMPLETIONS - OVER 18 (-125)
C.COOK - PASS YARDS - OVER 190 (-115)
L. MILLER - RUSH YARDS - UNDER 80 1/2 +120
SACKS - OAK - OVER 1 1/2 (-150)


Detroit has been relevant a week longer than usual, but their recent losses to Green Bay and Dallas make me think the comeback machine has run out of juice. Stafford is still having a banner year, and the offense is much more capable than I ever thought it would be, but Seattle on the road is too tall a task for this defense.


ANYTIME TD - TATE +200
ANYTIME TD - RAWLS (EVEN)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 38 1/2 (-115)
TATE- RECEPTIONS - UNDER 5 1/2 (-125)