Conference Championship Props

Back on the waggin' with some prop bets for the first of today's games. Pretty much everybody knows how this first game is going to go, so, in a shift to realistic bettor fashion, I will stick to the game with an expected outcome and not let the NFL's TV scheduling dictate who gets props. :P


ALTERNATE TOTAL - OVER 53 1/2 - (-275)
ALTERNATE TOTAL - UNDER 70 1/2 - (-325)
ANYTIME TD - D. ADAMS - (EVEN)
ANYTIME TD - D. FREEMAN - (-125)
ANYTIME TD - J.COOK - +125
ANYTIME TD - J.JONES - (-150)


I don't know how deep Belichek can hide plays up a sleeveless sweatshirt, but I do know better than to try to guess. I think points are probably going to flow freely in both games. I'll add a Blount TD, because it fits the "old team who cut him" narrative, even though he basically forced them to. I also suspect the Pats rested him specifically so they could rely on him being a factor today. The odds of this game being a defensive struggle are much higher, but like I've said before, you should take a lot of salt with anybody's prediction.


ANYTIME TD - L. BLOUNT (-125)

NFL Playoffs - Conference Championships

Meh. 2-2 last week, but I feel like I should have seen the two losses coming. Aaron Rodgers is on another level, and LeVeon Bell is as close as anybody to reaching it (Frogger reference in the works). That pretty much betrays how I feel about Sunday's games, except for a sneaking suspicion that the well rested Pats will have saved half their playbook for the next two games.


GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA (GB +4 1/2)


Atlanta had a much easier time dismantling an undermanned Seattle secondary than many expected. They could never boast a strong defense though, and I think Rodgers is as close to a runaway train as a player can be. When he said "run the table" I don't think he meant "regular season table".


PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND


 The Steelers have issues on defense. There were plenty of opportunities for Kansas City to win last week. New England had the easiest schedule in the league this year, and has not been tested by an opponent of this caliber. I usually give the edge to the team who has played in more tough games, but I also don't usually go against the Pats. LeGarette Blount is the X-factor here, having been cut by the Steelers. I expect a Patriot W, but I'll be rooting for the Steelers to score one against the evil empire.

Quotient quotables:

"As you know I'm not on Snapface and all that, so I don't really get those," he said. "I'm really just worried about getting our team ready to go. I'm not really too worried about what they put on Instantchat, or whatever it is."

- Belichek on the Brown/Tomlin locker room video.

NFL Playoffs - First Round

So, how best to erase the taste of a bad loss in Houston? More football, of course  I'm sticking with the home teams this time, but since posting I've changed my mind on the Pittsburgh/KC tilt. Nothing in particular warranted the switch, I just don't think KC will be able to score enough. I'm taking the line off on that game as well, and I had the Dallas line backwards, they're 4.5 point favorites.

Update: Sticking with a recent theme, I will now chicken out of my Pittsburgh pick. Back to KC and a full slate of home cookin'.

SEATTLE @ ATLANTA (SEA+4 1/2)

Atlanta probably should have won the prior meeting in Seattle. For those that missed it, there was a no-call on Sherman that prevented the Falcons from kicking what almost certainly would have been a game winning field goal. This Seattle team is inconsistent, and on the road. Not saying it's impossible, just sayin'.

HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND (NE - 15)

Now I will say it's impossible. There's no way the least hospitable B-and-B in New England let Osweiler get comfortable on the road. New England is essentially getting a bye all the way to the conference finals when you consider the level of competition in the other AFC semifinal. Somebody should make sure Brady doesn't de-fluff the pillows.

PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY

This one is going to be good. Kansas City's secondary will most likely take Antonio Brown out of the game and force the Steelers to beat them on the ground. The Titans have drafted the blueprint to do just that, but, without a Delanie Walker-type TE, I don't think PIT can replicate. Kansas City just doesn't have the offensive weapons to keep up if Pittsburgh can turn this into a shootout.

GREEN BAY @ DALLAS (DAL -4 1/2)

Aaron Rodgers blew the top of the NY Giants last week, without breaking a sweat. OBJ's awful case of the drops (or Eli's usual case of inaccuracy) was what truly put the game on it's head. The Giants couldn't get their D off the field, I think the Pack will be the ones having a hard time getting their own to the bench in this one. See: Previous meeting at Lambeau, which GB never looked competitive in.

Wild Card Props - Sunday (Live)

Hey, so a busy morning prevented me from the obligatory pregame post. I'll be taking the prop bets off, but wanted to let y'all know I was down with the Packers and Steelers before it was cool.


I haven't tabulated yesterday, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't good. In a rare instance of not doing my homework, I had no idea the Raiders LT was out. Anybody trying to stop Clowney in his first game at a new position on the road is going to have a bad time,  especially when the Center goes out as well. Anyways, enough whining. On to some better football. (I hope)




Update: I'd like to amend my picks already. A: Turns out the Steelers already won, but I was ignorant of the start time, so I'm not giving myself credit for that one. And B: The Packers look real shitty. The Giants just need to keep chuckin' it.


Update: I'd like to return to my original pick. Good thing I wasn't going to award myself the take-backsies anyways. Uncle Moe is back on the Packers side and I think they'll get the turnover they need. The Giants D has played lights out so far, and without Jordy, it will be tough. Rodgers is in his zone though, and Eli is Eli.

Update to the Update: screw that. Points for  Kyle's Pittsburgh pick. Also what game is this?!? Here I thought we were in a defensive struggle. Pack's up 21-13.

Update: Good thing I didn't update all year. This is tiring. Talk about a game of two halves.

Wild Card Props - Saturday

Finally, the playoffs are here. My season average straight-up was .660, which is pretty damn good in comparison to the sportswriters around the league. Of course, I started late, so there is an asterisk. I won my Fantasy League, mostly because Le'Veon Bell carried me through the last few weeks.


The Raiders are hoping another ex-Spartan, Conner Cook, can guide them through a similar predicament. I usually don't trust rooks, but I've seen this kid play more than most and I think he outguns Osweiler this afternoon. Cook was routinely clutch in college, as many Michigan and Notre Dame fans know all too well. Houston will surely improve on last year's showing, but I don't think they run effectively enough to win. Neither team should expect to go any further than the second round.


FIRST HALF - OAK +3 (-115)
FIRST HALF TOTAL - OAK - OVER  7 1/2 (-130)
FIRST TD - M.CRABTREE +900
FIRST TD - A.COOPER +900
C.COOK - COMPLETIONS - OVER 18 (-125)
C.COOK - PASS YARDS - OVER 190 (-115)
L. MILLER - RUSH YARDS - UNDER 80 1/2 +120
SACKS - OAK - OVER 1 1/2 (-150)


Detroit has been relevant a week longer than usual, but their recent losses to Green Bay and Dallas make me think the comeback machine has run out of juice. Stafford is still having a banner year, and the offense is much more capable than I ever thought it would be, but Seattle on the road is too tall a task for this defense.


ANYTIME TD - TATE +200
ANYTIME TD - RAWLS (EVEN)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 38 1/2 (-115)
TATE- RECEPTIONS - UNDER 5 1/2 (-125)