I guess I picked the wrong week to root for the little guys. Jacksonville at least denied the Lions the blowout some were expecting. In a week most experts did very well, I eeked over 50%. This week, I expect the expected.
Live streaming right now, my phone sabotaged me this morning.
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO TEN -6
Looking pretty safe so far. I think Mariota has the offense clicking at a level the Titans fans wouldn't have dared to dream of, but their defense is incredibly bad. They're taking a CB in the first round next year.
JACKSONVILLE@ BUFFALO OVER 45
I wanted to take the over off the board, but it's been there too long and I won't back away from something I posted on principle. The Bills are going to start running away with this, and I don't think the Jags can put up enough to reach this one. The Jags just tied it. Guess I might be right after all.
CINCINATTI @ BALTIMORE BAL -4 1/2
This one was easy to predict.
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA
Haven't seen much of this one, but I know it's close and I expect it to stay that way. Starting to lean towards the Cardinals because good defenses have beat the Falcons before.
CLEVELAND @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Dunno, don't care.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS
A welcome sight, the Rams have finally found some offense.
SAN FRANSISCO @ MIAMI
I never would have guessed that the 49ers could keep Ajayi as quiet as they have so far. Pretty impressive, but the Dolphins are still going to find a way.
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON
Haven't seen much of this one, but it falls in the category of close, interesting, and utterly impossible to predict.
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE SEA -6 1/2
It's a trap! I'm going to continue to milk that meme for all it's worth.
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND
The Panthers need Kuechly more than they need Cam. There is no replacement.
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW YORK JETS
The Jets can stop the run, not the pass. Brady will roll.
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
Looking forward to this one. A defensive battle worthy of the national spotlight, I expect the loser of this game to resign itself from the AFC West race.
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA
The Packers, even with Matthews back, will not right this ship.
Sunday, November 27, 2016
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Thursday Night Props
So, the NFL threw me for a loop by scheduling three of these things. Can't we all just watch the Lions for one gawdamn week? One of my favorite pastimes is watching the Gobbler get passed around from team to team like the dirty bird it is.
MOST FIRST DOWNS - PIT (-3 1/2) - (-135)
FIRST TD - L. BELL (+350)
FIRST TD - S. COATES - +1400
ANYTIME TD -L. BELL - (-250)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 42 1/2 - (-115)
TOTAL FG'S - COLTS - OVER 1 1/2 ( -140)
TOTAL INT'S - COLTS - OVER 1/2 - (-225)
Lady Luck has finally broke the Titans way, as they force the Colts to go without their superstar for a week. I think the Steelers win comfortably, with good offense and a few mistakes from Tolzien.
MOST FIRST DOWNS - PIT (-3 1/2) - (-135)
FIRST TD - L. BELL (+350)
FIRST TD - S. COATES - +1400
ANYTIME TD -L. BELL - (-250)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 42 1/2 - (-115)
TOTAL FG'S - COLTS - OVER 1 1/2 ( -140)
TOTAL INT'S - COLTS - OVER 1/2 - (-225)
Lady Luck has finally broke the Titans way, as they force the Colts to go without their superstar for a week. I think the Steelers win comfortably, with good offense and a few mistakes from Tolzien.
Sunday, November 20, 2016
Week 11 NFL Picks
Ahh, where to begin. Thursday night finally went my way, but watching Luke Kuechly get carted off made me very sad. I have since recovered. Now I am fairly certain I have every game pegged, just like last week (7/7). There are a fair amount of locks this week, so I'll start with a parlay.
PIT KC NE SEA OAK
Moneylines were not available for NE-SF, so I had to take the line (-13). This leaves me at about 5/1. I've just been assuming my Sunday picks are (-115), so if I hit it, I'll give myself 4 wins and a pat on the back. If NE doesn't cover, I'll give myself 3 and a golf clap.
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
Well, I have to say, before Kalil and Kuechly went out, I called this game to a tee. Score 1 for Kyle.
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND - PIT (-9)
The Browns will get RGIII back when they play Cincinnati in week 14, and that's about it for things the Brown's faithful can look forward to. Expect them to add the Heisman winner and still suck. Then do it again on draft day. I don't think he will play this year, but if he does, he can't help their rush defense (140 ypg) or their scoring defense (30 ppg). The Steelers, after losing four straight, will not let this team beat them.
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS
I despise EZ-E and Dak Prescott. I like how they play ball. Jerry should be given credit for a great draft, because you know he didn't ask for any advice. I knew Dak would be a steal, but was not expecting Elliot. Romo oozes leadership and maturity, which both the young guns lack. Still, they would not be 8-1 if he didn't get hurt in Seattle. I think the Seahawks will be the next team to beat them, at Jerryworld, in the playoffs, just like Tony tweeted.
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT - OVER 48
My bold pick of the week is the Lions to lose at home. What a sentence that is. The Lions just cannot run the ball, and that is what has been giving the Jags fits all season. Jacksonville only gives up 215 passing yards a game, and while I expect Stafford to throw closer to 300, I think lady luck finally deserts a team that should be 3-6. Detroit's 5 wins have come by a total of 17 points. Of course, there is still the potential for a blowout if Bortles continues to throw to the wrong team (11 INT's). Jim Bob Cooter is a helluva coach, and his bag of tricks is deep. I think they run dry.
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS - TEN (+3)
I don't think I've ever enjoyed watching a regular season football game as much as I did watching the Titans blowout the Packers. It was instant, total, and exotically smashmouthed. Mariota made Aaron Rodgers look like Mr Rodgers. Delanie Walker was shedding tackles like a broken lawnmower. DeMarco Murray went to the house on the first play of the Titans first possession, then threw a TD to cap the second. Rishard Matthews saluted his fallen brother, and Tajae Sharpe took a nap after a long overdue first. The commentator recommended the victory formation with 10 minutes left. They go into Indy healthy and mad, having lost 10 straight (15 of 16) to the Colts. The Titans have arrived.
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI
This is easily my least confident pick. Both are already irrelevant in my eyes, with the wildcards both headed to the torrid AFC West. The Bengals have an outside shot, but I don't think they think they're good enough to take it. The swing vote was Eric Wood, the starting center for the Bills, being out due to a broken leg. There is never a good week to break in a new center. Just ask Cam.
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY
KC @ ARROWHEAD = W
CHICAGO @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Usually I expect teams that suffered a blowout to respond well the next week. The Bears (and the Pack) just can't beat a good team, or win on the road. To expect them to do both, while denying a desperate NFC East contender, is just too much to ask. Cutler is counting down the days to golf, and JPP is praying that this is the week that proves you don't need all of your fingers to grab a ... QB.
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA
The reports of the Viking's death are greatly exaggerated. Bradford has indeed reverted to his pre-Viking, turnover-prone ways, but the defense was all they had during their 5 game win streak. Now, they just have to outplay one of the league's other defenses. Arizona can't score either. The onus is on either defense to make a big play. The Honey Badger will be out, which is good news for the Norse, ankles, and slithery-snakes everywhere.
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES - OVER 39 1/2
Call me crazy (or maybe), but is L.A not where rushing attacks go to die? This defense is fahreal, and Goff is going to come out slingin' in his first NFL game. I think he makes a few mistakes, but also makes a few plays Keenum wouldn't dream of. Fisher strikes me as the type of coach to punish a rookie (and fans) who think he's the best available, even if it's true. Miami has played very well of late, and I think this is easily the most entertaining afternoon game.
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO - NE (-13)
The 9ers put a good scare in the Cardinals last week. They wish they could fast-forward to Monday this week.
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE
Stephen A. thinks the Eagles should sit Wentz for no other reason than the Seattle defense. I think he's right. It does not help that Jordan Matthews is questionable. The Eagles will need to keep the skies clear, and get some help from special teams just to keep this thing within reach.
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON - OVER 49 1/2
Clay Matthews makes or breaks the Packer defense, and if he is missing or limited I don't think they have much of a chance. The Cheese-Doodles will be missing two starting o-linemen, which is only made worse by Rodger's lack of mobility. Without any run game to speak of, I think Washington can drive a stake in the Packers hopes of being competitive this year. Lucky for them, the NFC North will still be there for the taking.
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND - OVER 46
I'm going with Oakland, because Houston will not be able to put up enough points. The Raiders have a variety of ways to beat you, but defense is generally not one of them. Osweiler just flat-out misses Hopkins on a consistent enough basis to lose games. Elevation will play a large role in this one, but I can't for the life of me figure out who will benefit more from it. The Azteca is 2000ft higher than Mile High, and will provide an atmosphere (or lack thereof) unlike any in London. The Texans are without their 2nd and 3rd string RB, and will be hoping Miller has shaken off a injured ankle. They need a lot of things to go right to win.
PIT KC NE SEA OAK
Moneylines were not available for NE-SF, so I had to take the line (-13). This leaves me at about 5/1. I've just been assuming my Sunday picks are (-115), so if I hit it, I'll give myself 4 wins and a pat on the back. If NE doesn't cover, I'll give myself 3 and a golf clap.
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
Well, I have to say, before Kalil and Kuechly went out, I called this game to a tee. Score 1 for Kyle.
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND - PIT (-9)
The Browns will get RGIII back when they play Cincinnati in week 14, and that's about it for things the Brown's faithful can look forward to. Expect them to add the Heisman winner and still suck. Then do it again on draft day. I don't think he will play this year, but if he does, he can't help their rush defense (140 ypg) or their scoring defense (30 ppg). The Steelers, after losing four straight, will not let this team beat them.
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS
I despise EZ-E and Dak Prescott. I like how they play ball. Jerry should be given credit for a great draft, because you know he didn't ask for any advice. I knew Dak would be a steal, but was not expecting Elliot. Romo oozes leadership and maturity, which both the young guns lack. Still, they would not be 8-1 if he didn't get hurt in Seattle. I think the Seahawks will be the next team to beat them, at Jerryworld, in the playoffs, just like Tony tweeted.
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT - OVER 48
My bold pick of the week is the Lions to lose at home. What a sentence that is. The Lions just cannot run the ball, and that is what has been giving the Jags fits all season. Jacksonville only gives up 215 passing yards a game, and while I expect Stafford to throw closer to 300, I think lady luck finally deserts a team that should be 3-6. Detroit's 5 wins have come by a total of 17 points. Of course, there is still the potential for a blowout if Bortles continues to throw to the wrong team (11 INT's). Jim Bob Cooter is a helluva coach, and his bag of tricks is deep. I think they run dry.
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS - TEN (+3)
I don't think I've ever enjoyed watching a regular season football game as much as I did watching the Titans blowout the Packers. It was instant, total, and exotically smashmouthed. Mariota made Aaron Rodgers look like Mr Rodgers. Delanie Walker was shedding tackles like a broken lawnmower. DeMarco Murray went to the house on the first play of the Titans first possession, then threw a TD to cap the second. Rishard Matthews saluted his fallen brother, and Tajae Sharpe took a nap after a long overdue first. The commentator recommended the victory formation with 10 minutes left. They go into Indy healthy and mad, having lost 10 straight (15 of 16) to the Colts. The Titans have arrived.
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI
This is easily my least confident pick. Both are already irrelevant in my eyes, with the wildcards both headed to the torrid AFC West. The Bengals have an outside shot, but I don't think they think they're good enough to take it. The swing vote was Eric Wood, the starting center for the Bills, being out due to a broken leg. There is never a good week to break in a new center. Just ask Cam.
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY
KC @ ARROWHEAD = W
CHICAGO @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Usually I expect teams that suffered a blowout to respond well the next week. The Bears (and the Pack) just can't beat a good team, or win on the road. To expect them to do both, while denying a desperate NFC East contender, is just too much to ask. Cutler is counting down the days to golf, and JPP is praying that this is the week that proves you don't need all of your fingers to grab a ... QB.
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA
The reports of the Viking's death are greatly exaggerated. Bradford has indeed reverted to his pre-Viking, turnover-prone ways, but the defense was all they had during their 5 game win streak. Now, they just have to outplay one of the league's other defenses. Arizona can't score either. The onus is on either defense to make a big play. The Honey Badger will be out, which is good news for the Norse, ankles, and slithery-snakes everywhere.
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES - OVER 39 1/2
Call me crazy (or maybe), but is L.A not where rushing attacks go to die? This defense is fahreal, and Goff is going to come out slingin' in his first NFL game. I think he makes a few mistakes, but also makes a few plays Keenum wouldn't dream of. Fisher strikes me as the type of coach to punish a rookie (and fans) who think he's the best available, even if it's true. Miami has played very well of late, and I think this is easily the most entertaining afternoon game.
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO - NE (-13)
The 9ers put a good scare in the Cardinals last week. They wish they could fast-forward to Monday this week.
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE
Stephen A. thinks the Eagles should sit Wentz for no other reason than the Seattle defense. I think he's right. It does not help that Jordan Matthews is questionable. The Eagles will need to keep the skies clear, and get some help from special teams just to keep this thing within reach.
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON - OVER 49 1/2
Clay Matthews makes or breaks the Packer defense, and if he is missing or limited I don't think they have much of a chance. The Cheese-Doodles will be missing two starting o-linemen, which is only made worse by Rodger's lack of mobility. Without any run game to speak of, I think Washington can drive a stake in the Packers hopes of being competitive this year. Lucky for them, the NFC North will still be there for the taking.
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND - OVER 46
I'm going with Oakland, because Houston will not be able to put up enough points. The Raiders have a variety of ways to beat you, but defense is generally not one of them. Osweiler just flat-out misses Hopkins on a consistent enough basis to lose games. Elevation will play a large role in this one, but I can't for the life of me figure out who will benefit more from it. The Azteca is 2000ft higher than Mile High, and will provide an atmosphere (or lack thereof) unlike any in London. The Texans are without their 2nd and 3rd string RB, and will be hoping Miller has shaken off a injured ankle. They need a lot of things to go right to win.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Thursday Night Props
After a two forgettable weeks, a wonderfully useless HOU-DEN (+520) and a disastrous CLE-BAL (-640), my grand total of Thursday night profit is 8 simoleons. C'est la vie.
TOTAL SCORE - UNDER 53 1/2 - (-110)
FIRST TD - STEWART - +750
ANYTIME TD - STEWART +120 - BENJAMIN EVEN -
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - STEWART - OVER 69 1/2 - (-115)
LONGEST TD - SAINTS - (-115)
TOTAL TD'S - UNDER 6 (-115)
TOTAL SACKS - SAINTS - OVER 2 (-115)
My gut feeling is Carolina rolls. I know that the Saints just arguably beat Denver, but they are on the road against a team that has a lot of pride at stake. Cam, and the healthy Panther secondary, have no path to the playoffs except to win every division game left, starting tonight. If they can avoid early mistakes, look for Stewart and Cam to focus on short gains and clock management.
"They are (looking at me under a microscope), but what am I going to change? My aggressiveness? My beastiality?"
Washighton cornerback Josh Norman, not planning on having sex with any fewer animals despite being under heavy scrutiny around the league for his controversial play. (Ben Standig, Breaking Burgundy) - Football Outsiders
TOTAL SCORE - UNDER 53 1/2 - (-110)
FIRST TD - STEWART - +750
ANYTIME TD - STEWART +120 - BENJAMIN EVEN -
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - STEWART - OVER 69 1/2 - (-115)
LONGEST TD - SAINTS - (-115)
TOTAL TD'S - UNDER 6 (-115)
TOTAL SACKS - SAINTS - OVER 2 (-115)
My gut feeling is Carolina rolls. I know that the Saints just arguably beat Denver, but they are on the road against a team that has a lot of pride at stake. Cam, and the healthy Panther secondary, have no path to the playoffs except to win every division game left, starting tonight. If they can avoid early mistakes, look for Stewart and Cam to focus on short gains and clock management.
"They are (looking at me under a microscope), but what am I going to change? My aggressiveness? My beastiality?"
Washighton cornerback Josh Norman, not planning on having sex with any fewer animals despite being under heavy scrutiny around the league for his controversial play. (Ben Standig, Breaking Burgundy) - Football Outsiders
Sunday, November 13, 2016
Week 10 NFL Picks
So, I'm just going to throw the picks up and update the blog with my reasoning and bets as kickoff approaches. Pretty much everything subject to change before 10.
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE
fuckitty fuck fuck Josh McCown!?! WTF Hue. I believed in you.
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE
Mariota has been unfairly singled out as the only reason for the Titans losses. He certainly has some gigantic turnovers to answer for, but I place the blame squarely on the refs for this last one.
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON
The inability to score has caught up to Minnesota. They really need to win this game, but I don't think anybody is afraid to play the Vikings anymore. Until Bradford leads a comeback, they won't be.
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY
A tough game to call here. I hedge toward the home team, but I wouldn't recommend betting or watching this one.
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA
This one simply comes down to who wants it more. I don't think the Chiefs play particularly well on the road, and the Panthers have been playing for their season since they lost to the Buccaneers.
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA
This is my pick for the game of the week, along with SEA - NE. Both teams certainly need the boost that comes with beating a contender, and they can expect to see each other in the NFC hunt.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW YORK JETS (UNDER 39)
This one has been picked pretty heavy for the Jets, and I feel pretty uneasy about following suit. If the Rams could score, I would go with them, but this is a watchable game I don't expect anyone to watch.
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS (NO -3)
Without Talib, the Denver secondary took a big step back. The Oakland passing attack and the New Orleans passing attack resemble each other too much to feel good about their chances in the dome.
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE (HOU +2)
The Texans have a good passing defense, and Jacksonville is stuck in the air. They hung around in Kansas City, but I think that's more because of Nick Foles than anything they did.
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO (SD- 4 1/2)
Nobody's giving Miami a chance on the road, and I won't either. A 4 1/2 point line seems to suggest Vegas thinks this will be a closer game than the pundits expect.
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH (DAL +2)
The Cowboys haven't been stopped by anyone yet. I don't think Pittsburgh has the answer, but I do want them to win this one, for totally non-selfish reasons. The history should at least make it tough.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA
A 14 point line is too much for me, but I don't really have a good reason to tell anybody else it won't happen.
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND (SEA +8)
The Patriots remember the Fail Mary, and expect to get some street cred they don't even need.
CINCINNATI @ NEW YORK GIANTS
No thoughts on this one. The Giants have burned me too much to pick against them again.
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE
fuckitty fuck fuck Josh McCown!?! WTF Hue. I believed in you.
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE
Mariota has been unfairly singled out as the only reason for the Titans losses. He certainly has some gigantic turnovers to answer for, but I place the blame squarely on the refs for this last one.
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON
The inability to score has caught up to Minnesota. They really need to win this game, but I don't think anybody is afraid to play the Vikings anymore. Until Bradford leads a comeback, they won't be.
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY
A tough game to call here. I hedge toward the home team, but I wouldn't recommend betting or watching this one.
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA
This one simply comes down to who wants it more. I don't think the Chiefs play particularly well on the road, and the Panthers have been playing for their season since they lost to the Buccaneers.
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA
This is my pick for the game of the week, along with SEA - NE. Both teams certainly need the boost that comes with beating a contender, and they can expect to see each other in the NFC hunt.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW YORK JETS (UNDER 39)
This one has been picked pretty heavy for the Jets, and I feel pretty uneasy about following suit. If the Rams could score, I would go with them, but this is a watchable game I don't expect anyone to watch.
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS (NO -3)
Without Talib, the Denver secondary took a big step back. The Oakland passing attack and the New Orleans passing attack resemble each other too much to feel good about their chances in the dome.
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE (HOU +2)
The Texans have a good passing defense, and Jacksonville is stuck in the air. They hung around in Kansas City, but I think that's more because of Nick Foles than anything they did.
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO (SD- 4 1/2)
Nobody's giving Miami a chance on the road, and I won't either. A 4 1/2 point line seems to suggest Vegas thinks this will be a closer game than the pundits expect.
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH (DAL +2)
The Cowboys haven't been stopped by anyone yet. I don't think Pittsburgh has the answer, but I do want them to win this one, for totally non-selfish reasons. The history should at least make it tough.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA
A 14 point line is too much for me, but I don't really have a good reason to tell anybody else it won't happen.
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND (SEA +8)
The Patriots remember the Fail Mary, and expect to get some street cred they don't even need.
CINCINNATI @ NEW YORK GIANTS
No thoughts on this one. The Giants have burned me too much to pick against them again.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Aight, so updated S.U totals are at 32-19-4. As far as the bets go, the totals (excluding Thursdays) to date are 9-12, and on Thursdays my prop totals are at 16-11, but I'm still crunching the numbers in terms of profit. I'm also including the bets I made for the HOU-DEN game, which I did not post.
As a Lions fan, it would be nice to not be remembered as the only 0-16 team in history. The Browns, by losing every game, cannot make a claim to be better than any other team in the league. They are considerably better than some, though, being JAX and S.F. The carousel at QB is the x-factor. For the last few weeks (excluding Dallas) I've been telling myself I can be the boy who cried Browns win first. Even though Baltimore has everything to lose, they play close games every week.
WINNING MARGIN - +1- 6 - BROWNS - (+600)
FIRST TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+900) - T. WEST (+500)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+175) - T. WEST (-125)
SUCCESSFUL FG'S - BROWNS - OVER 1 1/2 (+110)
TOTAL PASSING YARDS - KESSLER - OVER 225 1/2 - (-125)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. WEST - OVER 62 1/2 (-115)
RECEIVING YARDS - S. SMITH - OVER 54 1/2 (-125)
FIRST SCORE - BROWNS FG - (+425)
NOTE: There is an odd line on Bovada regarding the first TD scorer. They excluded Mike Wallace from the list, and "field" is at +500. Be warned, he will be covered by Joe Haden, the Brown's best CB. I don't feel it's worth the risk, but if Haden isn't quite healthy, it could be a steal.
I understand how much better Baltimore's organization is, and how strong their defense is in comparison to Cleveland's. They simply don't allow any opponent to rush. Kessler has been sneaky good though, with 5 TD's to 1 INT. If I was playing with money, I might take the Browns at +8, but would certainly like the Ravens to get it done at home. Since I'm not, I'll let caution slip and yet again chase the gambler's white dragon of the first Browns win.
As a Lions fan, it would be nice to not be remembered as the only 0-16 team in history. The Browns, by losing every game, cannot make a claim to be better than any other team in the league. They are considerably better than some, though, being JAX and S.F. The carousel at QB is the x-factor. For the last few weeks (excluding Dallas) I've been telling myself I can be the boy who cried Browns win first. Even though Baltimore has everything to lose, they play close games every week.
WINNING MARGIN - +1- 6 - BROWNS - (+600)
FIRST TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+900) - T. WEST (+500)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+175) - T. WEST (-125)
SUCCESSFUL FG'S - BROWNS - OVER 1 1/2 (+110)
TOTAL PASSING YARDS - KESSLER - OVER 225 1/2 - (-125)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. WEST - OVER 62 1/2 (-115)
RECEIVING YARDS - S. SMITH - OVER 54 1/2 (-125)
FIRST SCORE - BROWNS FG - (+425)
NOTE: There is an odd line on Bovada regarding the first TD scorer. They excluded Mike Wallace from the list, and "field" is at +500. Be warned, he will be covered by Joe Haden, the Brown's best CB. I don't feel it's worth the risk, but if Haden isn't quite healthy, it could be a steal.
I understand how much better Baltimore's organization is, and how strong their defense is in comparison to Cleveland's. They simply don't allow any opponent to rush. Kessler has been sneaky good though, with 5 TD's to 1 INT. If I was playing with money, I might take the Browns at +8, but would certainly like the Ravens to get it done at home. Since I'm not, I'll let caution slip and yet again chase the gambler's white dragon of the first Browns win.
Saturday, November 5, 2016
Week 9 NFL Picks
So, my totally-not-made-up, straight up totals are 23-15-4. The "4" stems from the two ties and two games I forgot to pick. I'll get into where I've been right and wrong a little more later, but I wanted to get my picks in ASAP. If you know me well, the last minute is ASAP.
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND
The 'Boy's are at a crossroads. They seem to have already determined what is best for them, but we are getting to the point where someone needs to explain this to Tony. If I were him, I would retire. I would also have never played this barbaric sport, cuz I am a 5'11'', 190lb, smart cookie who likes his internal organs to remain where God intended. Kessler will get some points up, but not enough. I do think they win a game before the season is out, but there isn't a patsy left on the Brown's schedule.
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE
This game hinges on Roethlisberger's meniscus. The very idea of playing football two weeks after knee surgery boggles the mind, particularly when it's against your biggest rival. Even healthy, Big Ben is about as mobile as his namesake, and Sunday he will be sporting an incredibly short leash. Both teams are coming off the bye. Home team gets the edge, especially considering how badly the Ravens need a W.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA - DET + 6 1/2
Minnesota is at 5-2 with the league's second worst offense. This is a pretty big trap game for them, and I think the pieces Detroit may get back on D will seriously hamper their chances of putting points on the board. The unexpected departure of Norv Turner will mean his replacement( TE coach Pat Shurmur) will keep the Lions guessing. I have to give a big shoutout to family friend Audie Cole, who will get the start in place of injured MLB Eric Kendricks this week. If anybody can get me to root against the Lions, it's him.
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY - UNDER 44
Without QB Alex Smith (who is not in the concussion protocol, but almost certainly has one) the Chiefs will turn to Nick Foles, a perfectly suitable, if uninspiring, backup. Jacksonville should come out hot, as they got embarrassed by Tennessee on national TV last week. Any offense as pass-heavy as the Jag's is terrified of Arrowhead. After firing their OC Greg Olsen, all eyes will be on Gus Bradley. I think it was a largely symbolic gesture, and he is being allowed to finish out the year.
DENVER @ OAKLAND - DEN (PICK EM')
Please excuse me while I barf some stats. The gap between what the Broncos allow through the air (202 ypg) and what OAK expects to gain (290 ypg) highlights how critical it is for both of these teams to win their matchups on the outside. The Broncos will have to do so without Aquib Talib, who is out with a back injury. Amari Cooper is questionable for Oakland. The Raiders just don't have an alternative, and have struggled mightily against defenses who cover well. Their average yardage numbers (406 for - 417 against) show just how lucky they were. I have a virulent dislike for Jack Del Rio and Derek Carr, and intend to enjoy every bit of their regression to the mean.
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -
We are starting to reach the point where there is no road to recovery for certain teams. Either of these two can recover from a loss this week, but not easily. Essentially half the playmakers for GB are hurt, and they still managed to play ATL close. Indy's issues mostly lie with the offensive line. The Colts are also very vulnerable through the air, giving up 413 yards a game. Rodgers feasts on defenses that soft, particularly at home.
CAROLINA @ L.A RAMS - UNDER 44
My weekly Swami-Sez-Wrong pick is Carolina to win on the road. I think the Rams are certainly built to stop the read-option attack that makes the Panthers dangerous, but my issue is with their own offense. Gurley hasn't done much to justify his preseason hype, and with Goff waiting in the wings, I think Keenum will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand. The Panthers essentially need to win out to make the playoffs, and I don't think they are ready to give up on this year just yet.
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS - OVER 43
Josh Huff had himself a DAT (or Blount, or Lyerla or...) moment when he was caught speeding across state lines with hollow-points and <50g of reefer. As much as I support the second amendment and marijuana legalization, he gave the PHI ownership no choice. To his credit, he has said all the right things in the aftermath; hardly consolation to his special team-ates. The Giants had their entire roster at practice, with OBJ's banged-up hip being the only injury nine weeks in. That's pretty odd. Lane Johnson's suspension is seriously hurting the Eagles, but I think they get a turnover or two and win.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI - UNDER 44
In this week's "game nobody's watching", the Jets will bring their elite rush defense to Miami's recently elite rushing offense. I was one of the unfortunates who dropped Ajayi in Wk 6, and as such, would like to not have a monument to my own stupidity enshrined in the record books. The simmering feud of Marshall v. Maxwell will probably determine the outcome of this one, and I think Byron can win that battle again.
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO - N.O -4
The 49er's simply cannot stop the run. Lucky for them, The Saint's don't. There's probably more attention given to Kaepernick's protest than the rest of the team combined. They will get Carlos Hyde back, and that will certainly help, but I think this team is considerably worse than the Browns. Kaep will continue to make mistakes downfield, and I think the Saints win very big on the road.
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO - OVER 47 1/2
The best 3-5 team in the NFL needs W's to keep up in the fierce AFC West. The city itself is about to vote on the plans to fund a new stadium. As much as I like what the Titans have been able to do, I cannot in good conscience ignore how significant this game is to the other boys in powder blue.
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE - BUF +7
This has all the makings of another 9-6, 13-10 type slugfest. Seattle has put themselves in a good spot. They still can't score, but the tie with Arizona pretty much ensured them a playoff berth if they just stay .500 the rest of the year. Pete should have something special cooked up on offense, considering that's all he really needs to work on. I have Beast Mode on my fantasy bench, just in case. It's hard to imagine the Bills leaving the Clink with a W, but a defensive score could do it.
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND
The 'Boy's are at a crossroads. They seem to have already determined what is best for them, but we are getting to the point where someone needs to explain this to Tony. If I were him, I would retire. I would also have never played this barbaric sport, cuz I am a 5'11'', 190lb, smart cookie who likes his internal organs to remain where God intended. Kessler will get some points up, but not enough. I do think they win a game before the season is out, but there isn't a patsy left on the Brown's schedule.
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE
This game hinges on Roethlisberger's meniscus. The very idea of playing football two weeks after knee surgery boggles the mind, particularly when it's against your biggest rival. Even healthy, Big Ben is about as mobile as his namesake, and Sunday he will be sporting an incredibly short leash. Both teams are coming off the bye. Home team gets the edge, especially considering how badly the Ravens need a W.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA - DET + 6 1/2
Minnesota is at 5-2 with the league's second worst offense. This is a pretty big trap game for them, and I think the pieces Detroit may get back on D will seriously hamper their chances of putting points on the board. The unexpected departure of Norv Turner will mean his replacement( TE coach Pat Shurmur) will keep the Lions guessing. I have to give a big shoutout to family friend Audie Cole, who will get the start in place of injured MLB Eric Kendricks this week. If anybody can get me to root against the Lions, it's him.
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY - UNDER 44
Without QB Alex Smith (who is not in the concussion protocol, but almost certainly has one) the Chiefs will turn to Nick Foles, a perfectly suitable, if uninspiring, backup. Jacksonville should come out hot, as they got embarrassed by Tennessee on national TV last week. Any offense as pass-heavy as the Jag's is terrified of Arrowhead. After firing their OC Greg Olsen, all eyes will be on Gus Bradley. I think it was a largely symbolic gesture, and he is being allowed to finish out the year.
DENVER @ OAKLAND - DEN (PICK EM')
Please excuse me while I barf some stats. The gap between what the Broncos allow through the air (202 ypg) and what OAK expects to gain (290 ypg) highlights how critical it is for both of these teams to win their matchups on the outside. The Broncos will have to do so without Aquib Talib, who is out with a back injury. Amari Cooper is questionable for Oakland. The Raiders just don't have an alternative, and have struggled mightily against defenses who cover well. Their average yardage numbers (406 for - 417 against) show just how lucky they were. I have a virulent dislike for Jack Del Rio and Derek Carr, and intend to enjoy every bit of their regression to the mean.
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -
We are starting to reach the point where there is no road to recovery for certain teams. Either of these two can recover from a loss this week, but not easily. Essentially half the playmakers for GB are hurt, and they still managed to play ATL close. Indy's issues mostly lie with the offensive line. The Colts are also very vulnerable through the air, giving up 413 yards a game. Rodgers feasts on defenses that soft, particularly at home.
CAROLINA @ L.A RAMS - UNDER 44
My weekly Swami-Sez-Wrong pick is Carolina to win on the road. I think the Rams are certainly built to stop the read-option attack that makes the Panthers dangerous, but my issue is with their own offense. Gurley hasn't done much to justify his preseason hype, and with Goff waiting in the wings, I think Keenum will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand. The Panthers essentially need to win out to make the playoffs, and I don't think they are ready to give up on this year just yet.
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS - OVER 43
Josh Huff had himself a DAT (or Blount, or Lyerla or...) moment when he was caught speeding across state lines with hollow-points and <50g of reefer. As much as I support the second amendment and marijuana legalization, he gave the PHI ownership no choice. To his credit, he has said all the right things in the aftermath; hardly consolation to his special team-ates. The Giants had their entire roster at practice, with OBJ's banged-up hip being the only injury nine weeks in. That's pretty odd. Lane Johnson's suspension is seriously hurting the Eagles, but I think they get a turnover or two and win.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI - UNDER 44
In this week's "game nobody's watching", the Jets will bring their elite rush defense to Miami's recently elite rushing offense. I was one of the unfortunates who dropped Ajayi in Wk 6, and as such, would like to not have a monument to my own stupidity enshrined in the record books. The simmering feud of Marshall v. Maxwell will probably determine the outcome of this one, and I think Byron can win that battle again.
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO - N.O -4
The 49er's simply cannot stop the run. Lucky for them, The Saint's don't. There's probably more attention given to Kaepernick's protest than the rest of the team combined. They will get Carlos Hyde back, and that will certainly help, but I think this team is considerably worse than the Browns. Kaep will continue to make mistakes downfield, and I think the Saints win very big on the road.
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO - OVER 47 1/2
The best 3-5 team in the NFL needs W's to keep up in the fierce AFC West. The city itself is about to vote on the plans to fund a new stadium. As much as I like what the Titans have been able to do, I cannot in good conscience ignore how significant this game is to the other boys in powder blue.
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE - BUF +7
This has all the makings of another 9-6, 13-10 type slugfest. Seattle has put themselves in a good spot. They still can't score, but the tie with Arizona pretty much ensured them a playoff berth if they just stay .500 the rest of the year. Pete should have something special cooked up on offense, considering that's all he really needs to work on. I have Beast Mode on my fantasy bench, just in case. It's hard to imagine the Bills leaving the Clink with a W, but a defensive score could do it.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Ahh, what a game. S.F got some sweet revenge on the city that dashed their dreams, and even the Indians players will eventually be happy to have been involved in getting that monkey off the MLB's collective back. If only the Browns were so lucky. Not soon, but I do think their title is coming and Francona will get them there.
Anyways, time to move on to sub-optimal football. This one has all the makings of a landslide.
ANYTIME TD SCORER - FREEMAN (-175)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - M. EVANS (-110)
TOTAL YARDS - FREEMAN - OVER 64 1/2 (-115)
LONGEST TD YARDAGE - UNDER 44 1/2 (-115)
TOTAL SUCCESSFUL FG'S - TB - OVER 1 1/2 (-130)
TOTAL INT'S THROWN - WINSTON - OVER 1/2 (-200)
I am still wavering on the longest TD call, given Julio's deep threat ability. He's been on my fantasy team though, and has put up enough duds so far that I'd rather bet against it. I think ATL gets up eventually and has no issue stopping TB's limited offense, leading to a long night for the Bucs and another boring Thursday night game for the rest of us.
Anyways, time to move on to sub-optimal football. This one has all the makings of a landslide.
ANYTIME TD SCORER - FREEMAN (-175)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - M. EVANS (-110)
TOTAL YARDS - FREEMAN - OVER 64 1/2 (-115)
LONGEST TD YARDAGE - UNDER 44 1/2 (-115)
TOTAL SUCCESSFUL FG'S - TB - OVER 1 1/2 (-130)
TOTAL INT'S THROWN - WINSTON - OVER 1/2 (-200)
I am still wavering on the longest TD call, given Julio's deep threat ability. He's been on my fantasy team though, and has put up enough duds so far that I'd rather bet against it. I think ATL gets up eventually and has no issue stopping TB's limited offense, leading to a long night for the Bucs and another boring Thursday night game for the rest of us.
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