9-7 last week, finally falling back towards mediocrity. I blame the Bears, as I had to watch more of that game than I would have otherwise. With Mariota going down and the Cards/Browns winning, there were not a lot of things for this partisan to be happy about, besides the weather. (I got a tan in December!?!) Fantasy team is up 3 headed into the second leg. That's something.
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE
Matt Cassell, while probably not made of sand, melted down last week. He couldn't beat Jacksonville's secondary, I'd bet he probably won't figure out Houston's.
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
Minnesota still can't score. Chicago has been playing spoiler long enough to be dangerous, but they made me look pretty dumb last week against a hungry Redskins team. This pick is tentative.
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES
The Cards are too good at running the ball to let the Rams back into this one if they get ahead. The only way I see LA winning at home is with early points off turnovers.
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO
The Chargers are just sooo 2000 and late. Better luck is overdue for this franchise, but short of a division change or a Brees homecoming season, next year might be even rougher.
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
The Sqwaks just need to hit cruise control and put their talons up for this one. They haven't looked capable of that all year, but I think they can get it done comfortably against a familiar (new haircut?) QB.
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT
The Lions have looked more like the Lions of yesteryear recently, and now get to be spanked at home in front of fans who at one point were certain they had this whole playoff thing locked up. Woe, the ides of Janurary.
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI
The Ravens just lost their season by scoring too quickly. Chances are, they haven't gotten over it inside the locker room just yet.
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Both teams are a bit of an enigma to me right now. Going with the home one.
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS
Stupid Jacksonville hurt my man. Damn you Jags. Damn you.
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
They could rest their starters. They won't. Even if I had insider info that Brady won't take a snap, it wouldn't justify taking the Dolphins here.
BUFFALO @ NEW YORK JETS
Tyrod Taylor has been benched, so EJ Manuel will get to test his mettle this week against a Jets team that is probably less interested in playing than the rest of the Bills are. If you know what's good for you, don't watch this game.
DALLAS @ PHILIDELHPIA
The Cowboys had every reason to give their starters a rest last week against Detroit. I think they actually do rest them this week, and the Eagles win accordingly. Lane Johnson looked every bit as good against the G-men as the Philly faithful could have expected, now if only Dallas could figure out New York...
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
The Browns, to the surprise of many, got their first win against a depleted Chargers team, making it a rough week 16 for us Lions fans. We now get to wonder how many years we might have to wait for another 0-16 team to join us in historical abomination. Pittsburgh hits the gas, then coasts 3 quarters.
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
The Saints are trying to reach .500, and the Falcons are playing for a first round bye. Atlanta is also expecting at least one more win in the Georgia Dome before the doors are shuttered for good this offseason. Usually a stadium's last ride is cause for away teams to worry. Not so at the Joe in Detroit so far, but that's a story for another blog.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
Washington needs a W to get into the playoffs. DeSean Jackson is having himself a year, averaging almost 20 yards a catch over the last 4. As good as the Giants are, I think OBJ will be slowed by Norman, particularly when McAdoo has no reason to risk his stars in a game that's all cost / no benefit.
OAKLAND @ DENVER
I want to see Denver take this game seriously. However, I don't see any incentive to risk injuries this week just to potentially reward Kansas City. I think playing backups makes much more sense if you are heading into the postseason, but I've never had to answer to a player on my fantasy team when he gets hurt week 17. Paxton Lynch can use all the reps he can get. Oakland still wants this AFC West title, in part to forget their own QB issues, which almost certainly will dash their SB hopes.
When you come to a fork in the road, take it. - Yogi Berra
Friday, December 30, 2016
Thursday, December 22, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Sitting nice and pretty at +1200 on Thursdays. Gonna slow roll the next few to keep things in the green.
1ST TD SCORER - OBJ +500
ANYTIME TD SCORER - OBJ -140
ANYTIME TD SCORER - R. MATTHEWS +120
RUSH YARDS - R. JENNINGS - UNDER 40 1/2 (-105)
RUSH YARDS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 55 1/2 (-125)
RECEPTIONS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 1/2 (-175)
Imma take it light this week, a returning Lane Johnson has me spooked. He could return the Eagles to respectability, or he could show some rust. The Giants won't wait to test him. I think he's a factor, but not a game changer.
Ouch. Rough total for the year, +750
1ST TD SCORER - OBJ +500
ANYTIME TD SCORER - OBJ -140
ANYTIME TD SCORER - R. MATTHEWS +120
RUSH YARDS - R. JENNINGS - UNDER 40 1/2 (-105)
RUSH YARDS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 55 1/2 (-125)
RECEPTIONS - R. MATTHEWS - OVER 1/2 (-175)
Imma take it light this week, a returning Lane Johnson has me spooked. He could return the Eagles to respectability, or he could show some rust. The Giants won't wait to test him. I think he's a factor, but not a game changer.
Ouch. Rough total for the year, +750
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Week 16 NFL Picks
The sun is shining, the day is Wednesday and my blog is early. Weird. The common thread of these final weeks is "who wants it more?" Most people will say "I do" before considering what "it" is. I just want to stop all the wanting.
TENNESSE @ JACKSONVILLE
The Jags should get out of the way of their "rivals" from Nashville just so the Texans don't default their way to the AFC South.
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY
The Pack has nothing to lose and yards to gain on a tired Minnesota defense.
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
Seattle is already in the playoffs, and Arizona is already not. The Seahawks, despite having a GB-shaped bruise, are still who we thought they were: NFC North champs. They need to stay focused on the task at hand, which is pretty easy for this team at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES
This week on Loser Bowl: So-Cal Edition: We have a spectacular, horrendous game where everybody loses and the points don't matter. Being the first winnable game for either team in a long while, I think it stays close throughout, as players try their darndest to stay out of the CFL.
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Even new, unique, horsehoes won't fix the Broncos' running problems. Remember the Titans?
DETROIT @ DALLAS
Tate ≠ OBJ, Stafford > Eli, EZ-E vs. Ziggy. The comparisons between the Lions and Giants are fairley straightforward. I think they get back to their winning ways after a few tough weeks.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILIDELPHIA
The Giants still have plenty to lose, the Eagles are just plain tired of losing. They have spotted a silver lining in Lane Johnson's shadow, but I don't think he can stop the playoff bound from doing what they do.
MIAMI @ BUFFALO
Matt Moore looked pretty good in his highly-anticipated return, and I think he's capable of the same this week. He's 32, a free agent in 2018 and deserving of many props for performing well when called upon. Houston could have saved themselves 70 mil if they wanted a decent backup.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
This registers a 2 on the Bristol-Stool scale.
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND
Maybe a loud 3?
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO
Fun Fact: Bears boil their potatoes before mashing them. Only certain types, mind you.
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Go with the flow, Luke. Your mind matters more than this game does. Julio Jones should be well rested and ready to get back to work on the road. I don't expect it to be easy, but I do think the Falcons eek this one out.
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND
Indy seems like a prime candidate for mattress of the week. While Oakland has their ticket punched, Indy has no path. Neither team seems interested in playing much defense. The way this year has gone, Oakland will get a play or two from Kalil Mack and seal it.
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The fairy dust is finally on the floor. The fans are all clapped out. The Bucs are still quite dangerous, but I think they lost some serious swagger in Dallas. The worst good team won't be able to regain it quickly enough to beat Brees in the Superdome.
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON
To: Refs:
CC: CIN Secondary
The Titans could use some help. Make Week 17 great again.
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
Game of the week, every time it's played. A truly capable defense will be tasked with stopping the three headed hydra that the fantasy projectors were all abuzz about during the preseason. Le'Veon put me on his back a' la Greg Jennings and carried me into the finals of my fantasy league. Apologies to anybody who had to watch that from the wrong side. He should have had 4 doh.
TENNESSE @ JACKSONVILLE
The Jags should get out of the way of their "rivals" from Nashville just so the Texans don't default their way to the AFC South.
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY
The Pack has nothing to lose and yards to gain on a tired Minnesota defense.
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
Seattle is already in the playoffs, and Arizona is already not. The Seahawks, despite having a GB-shaped bruise, are still who we thought they were: NFC North champs. They need to stay focused on the task at hand, which is pretty easy for this team at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES
This week on Loser Bowl: So-Cal Edition: We have a spectacular, horrendous game where everybody loses and the points don't matter. Being the first winnable game for either team in a long while, I think it stays close throughout, as players try their darndest to stay out of the CFL.
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Even new, unique, horsehoes won't fix the Broncos' running problems. Remember the Titans?
DETROIT @ DALLAS
Tate ≠ OBJ, Stafford > Eli, EZ-E vs. Ziggy. The comparisons between the Lions and Giants are fairley straightforward. I think they get back to their winning ways after a few tough weeks.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILIDELPHIA
The Giants still have plenty to lose, the Eagles are just plain tired of losing. They have spotted a silver lining in Lane Johnson's shadow, but I don't think he can stop the playoff bound from doing what they do.
MIAMI @ BUFFALO
Matt Moore looked pretty good in his highly-anticipated return, and I think he's capable of the same this week. He's 32, a free agent in 2018 and deserving of many props for performing well when called upon. Houston could have saved themselves 70 mil if they wanted a decent backup.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
This registers a 2 on the Bristol-Stool scale.
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND
Maybe a loud 3?
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO
Fun Fact: Bears boil their potatoes before mashing them. Only certain types, mind you.
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Go with the flow, Luke. Your mind matters more than this game does. Julio Jones should be well rested and ready to get back to work on the road. I don't expect it to be easy, but I do think the Falcons eek this one out.
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND
Indy seems like a prime candidate for mattress of the week. While Oakland has their ticket punched, Indy has no path. Neither team seems interested in playing much defense. The way this year has gone, Oakland will get a play or two from Kalil Mack and seal it.
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The fairy dust is finally on the floor. The fans are all clapped out. The Bucs are still quite dangerous, but I think they lost some serious swagger in Dallas. The worst good team won't be able to regain it quickly enough to beat Brees in the Superdome.
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON
To: Refs:
CC: CIN Secondary
The Titans could use some help. Make Week 17 great again.
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
Game of the week, every time it's played. A truly capable defense will be tasked with stopping the three headed hydra that the fantasy projectors were all abuzz about during the preseason. Le'Veon put me on his back a' la Greg Jennings and carried me into the finals of my fantasy league. Apologies to anybody who had to watch that from the wrong side. He should have had 4 doh.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Week 15 NFL Picks
This week, the usual suspects are all more or less expected to win, and I just don't buy it. SEA-LA set me back a bit, but -157 adheres to the odd number rule and is therefore OK with me.
LOS ANGELES @ SEATTLE
The Rams absolutely lost the trade they made last year with the Titans. They gave up a 1st and a 3rd for Goff, who we all know is a hot pile of trash on a rusty tin roof. Now they get to watch the Titans get WAAAY better than they already are next year and have to somehow build around Goff with no picks. Cellar, meet Rams. Rams, Cellar.
DETROIT @ NEW YORK GIANTS
I've gone against the Lions too much already this year. It's embarrassing enough to be the last one on my home team's bandwagon, but Seattle was a great place to snow-bird while the Ford-owned franchise found its sea legs the same year they lost Megatron. Both teams have to throw, I think Stafford and Big-Play Slay can force Eli to make some more funny faces.
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
This one is complicated. I think to compare Denver and KC would be to do the Chiefs a disservice, but there are plenty of parallels. The Broncos secondary certainly scared Mariota from throwing anywhere near his own wideouts. Kansas City will keep them quiet for a second straight week. However, the Titans defense might be sneaky good without Cox around to screw it up. All Mariota has to do is hit a few deep throws to win this game. My backup guess: He loses the game on his first red-zone pick.
INDIANAPOILIS @ MINNESOTA
Waffling here. Sam Bradford and TY Hilton are both questionable at time-of-post, if one of them can go, and the other can't, I reserve the right to mulligan. My gut says Minnesota is too good on D to let a one dimensional offense like the Colts beat them at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA
The story leading in to this one surrounds Julio's toe, and whether or not to sit your star because there's a good excuse. Simply no way Chip beats a playoff team.
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA
The Saints are too bad on defense to beat any team that ranks in the top 10 on that side of the ball. They can win in a shootout, or not at all.
MIAMI @ NEW YORK JETS
Matt Moore's last win came 5 years ago against the Jets. I think he's a good enough backup to get the job done on the road, especially since he's across Bryce Petty. The Jets should keep Ajayi bottled up. It will probably come down to special teams and turnovers, just like the previous bout.
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
Chicago held Detroit to within 3, I think they can make Green Bay sweat a little more than the Seahawks did last week. The Bears secondary only allows 235 yards through the air, they could sneak up on some folks from Wisconsin who celebrated a little longer than usual after their last W.
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON
Jacksonville played Houston tight once, I for one hope they can win this one. But I wouldn't try to convince anybody else their offense can get it done against a Houston defense that specializes in stopping aerial attacks.
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO
The Browns are not worth disparaging further.
PHILIDELPHIA @ BALTIMORE
Baltimore still has it all to play for. Philly doesn't, and after seeing 3 more Eagles go down to injuries, I doubt they find a way to play with the required intensity. The Eagles are 1-6 on the road to boot. Wentzlmania has officially hit it's first goose patch. Expect the boo birds to blame yet another coach for their own failings (letting/making Andy Reid go).
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI
The Bengals usually sport a stout rush defense, but this year they allow close to 120 yards a game. That won't cut it against Le'Veon Bell and Co. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Bengals, but most sportswriters favor the Steelers, including this one.
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER
Denver has the hardest 3-game slate in NFL history between them and the playoffs (Three 10+ win teams in a row). The scheduling gods have it out for last year's Cinderella.
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO
Sandy Eggo is just waaay too beat up to win games. I don't give them any chance of upsetting the Raiders, especially without Melvin Gordon or any of their usual WR's. This is my lock of the week, if you're asking.
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS
Tampa Bay has that "it" factor that Dallas had in the preseason. Jameis has his team playing together. The defense and the offense have each other's back. "Special D" has far too many egos to satisfy individually before they can determine what is best for the team as a whole.
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON
Jordan Reed is the ex factor here, and another swing vote injury. I think Carolina can win this game if they don't have to worry about the pass-catching TE. Motivation is starting to be a serious question in Carolina, as they can't help but take their eyes off the football when they all know they're going to get to the golf course early.
Quotient Quotables:
"Outlaws are can openers in the supermarket of life." Still Life With Woodpecker - Tom Robbins
LOS ANGELES @ SEATTLE
The Rams absolutely lost the trade they made last year with the Titans. They gave up a 1st and a 3rd for Goff, who we all know is a hot pile of trash on a rusty tin roof. Now they get to watch the Titans get WAAAY better than they already are next year and have to somehow build around Goff with no picks. Cellar, meet Rams. Rams, Cellar.
DETROIT @ NEW YORK GIANTS
I've gone against the Lions too much already this year. It's embarrassing enough to be the last one on my home team's bandwagon, but Seattle was a great place to snow-bird while the Ford-owned franchise found its sea legs the same year they lost Megatron. Both teams have to throw, I think Stafford and Big-Play Slay can force Eli to make some more funny faces.
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
This one is complicated. I think to compare Denver and KC would be to do the Chiefs a disservice, but there are plenty of parallels. The Broncos secondary certainly scared Mariota from throwing anywhere near his own wideouts. Kansas City will keep them quiet for a second straight week. However, the Titans defense might be sneaky good without Cox around to screw it up. All Mariota has to do is hit a few deep throws to win this game. My backup guess: He loses the game on his first red-zone pick.
INDIANAPOILIS @ MINNESOTA
Waffling here. Sam Bradford and TY Hilton are both questionable at time-of-post, if one of them can go, and the other can't, I reserve the right to mulligan. My gut says Minnesota is too good on D to let a one dimensional offense like the Colts beat them at home.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA
The story leading in to this one surrounds Julio's toe, and whether or not to sit your star because there's a good excuse. Simply no way Chip beats a playoff team.
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA
The Saints are too bad on defense to beat any team that ranks in the top 10 on that side of the ball. They can win in a shootout, or not at all.
MIAMI @ NEW YORK JETS
Matt Moore's last win came 5 years ago against the Jets. I think he's a good enough backup to get the job done on the road, especially since he's across Bryce Petty. The Jets should keep Ajayi bottled up. It will probably come down to special teams and turnovers, just like the previous bout.
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
Chicago held Detroit to within 3, I think they can make Green Bay sweat a little more than the Seahawks did last week. The Bears secondary only allows 235 yards through the air, they could sneak up on some folks from Wisconsin who celebrated a little longer than usual after their last W.
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON
Jacksonville played Houston tight once, I for one hope they can win this one. But I wouldn't try to convince anybody else their offense can get it done against a Houston defense that specializes in stopping aerial attacks.
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO
The Browns are not worth disparaging further.
PHILIDELPHIA @ BALTIMORE
Baltimore still has it all to play for. Philly doesn't, and after seeing 3 more Eagles go down to injuries, I doubt they find a way to play with the required intensity. The Eagles are 1-6 on the road to boot. Wentzlmania has officially hit it's first goose patch. Expect the boo birds to blame yet another coach for their own failings (letting/making Andy Reid go).
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI
The Bengals usually sport a stout rush defense, but this year they allow close to 120 yards a game. That won't cut it against Le'Veon Bell and Co. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Bengals, but most sportswriters favor the Steelers, including this one.
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER
Denver has the hardest 3-game slate in NFL history between them and the playoffs (Three 10+ win teams in a row). The scheduling gods have it out for last year's Cinderella.
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO
Sandy Eggo is just waaay too beat up to win games. I don't give them any chance of upsetting the Raiders, especially without Melvin Gordon or any of their usual WR's. This is my lock of the week, if you're asking.
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS
Tampa Bay has that "it" factor that Dallas had in the preseason. Jameis has his team playing together. The defense and the offense have each other's back. "Special D" has far too many egos to satisfy individually before they can determine what is best for the team as a whole.
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON
Jordan Reed is the ex factor here, and another swing vote injury. I think Carolina can win this game if they don't have to worry about the pass-catching TE. Motivation is starting to be a serious question in Carolina, as they can't help but take their eyes off the football when they all know they're going to get to the golf course early.
Quotient Quotables:
"Outlaws are can openers in the supermarket of life." Still Life With Woodpecker - Tom Robbins
Thursday Night Props
Oddly, my week 15 total of Thursday Props is 1,357. I kinda want to take the next two off, and just bask in the glory.
FIRST SCORE - RAMS FG +550
FIRST SCORE - SEATTLE TD +120
SCORE IN FIRST 7:30 - YES (-150)
IST TD SCORER - KEARSE +900
1ST TD SCORER - RAWLS +300
TOTAL SCUCCESSFUL FG'S - RAMS - OVER 1/2 (-200)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - R. WILSON - UNDER 25 1/2 +105
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. RAWLS UNDER 77 1/2 (-105)
TOTAL RECIEVING YARDS - T. RAWLS - OVER 12 1/2 (-115)
So, lots to consider in this game. Sherman called these games "poopfests", which has me oddly aroused. Anyways, it's about as appealing to the Vegas crowd. The linett started at 15, which seems about right to me. Lots of unknowns within the Rams organization in a time of midseason transition, which should scream easy W for Seattle. It's just that every time Seattle plays LA, it's supposed to be an easy W. Then 4 sacks and 2 fumbles later, the Hawks get sent packing, like they did earlier this year (disclaimer: not actual statistics from earlier this year). I feel confident they come ready to play after getting schelacked by GB, but I don't think they have an answer for the Earl Thomas sized hole in their secondary. It's just that Goff can't exploit it.
FIRST SCORE - RAMS FG +550
FIRST SCORE - SEATTLE TD +120
SCORE IN FIRST 7:30 - YES (-150)
IST TD SCORER - KEARSE +900
1ST TD SCORER - RAWLS +300
TOTAL SCUCCESSFUL FG'S - RAMS - OVER 1/2 (-200)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - R. WILSON - UNDER 25 1/2 +105
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. RAWLS UNDER 77 1/2 (-105)
TOTAL RECIEVING YARDS - T. RAWLS - OVER 12 1/2 (-115)
So, lots to consider in this game. Sherman called these games "poopfests", which has me oddly aroused. Anyways, it's about as appealing to the Vegas crowd. The linett started at 15, which seems about right to me. Lots of unknowns within the Rams organization in a time of midseason transition, which should scream easy W for Seattle. It's just that every time Seattle plays LA, it's supposed to be an easy W. Then 4 sacks and 2 fumbles later, the Hawks get sent packing, like they did earlier this year (disclaimer: not actual statistics from earlier this year). I feel confident they come ready to play after getting schelacked by GB, but I don't think they have an answer for the Earl Thomas sized hole in their secondary. It's just that Goff can't exploit it.
Saturday, December 10, 2016
Week 14 NFL Picks
Numbahs first. Thursday Night was much more lopsided than expected, and if Oakland could cover a punt, I would have had a nice night. All told, I was down 95 dolares. When it comes to the straight up picks, I'm at 79-41-7. There was some faulty math in the last post, expect to see more in the future. It's since been corrected, and at 0.658%, I'm running at a pretty good clip.
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY
This one pretty much went according to plan. I didn't think Kelce would have the success he did, but in general the Chiefs looked comfortable and confident throughout.
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO - PIT -2
With Sammy Watkins questionable and Shady almost certainly not 100%, I have a hard time seeing the Steelers letting this one slip. The Bills don't have much to play for, and while I expect it to be close, I think Pittsburgh will find a way to win.
DENVER @ TENNESSEE - OVER 44
This is a different story. I think Mariota is scary accurate, and will do much better against the Denver secondary than most people expect. The Broncos allow 123 rypg, good for 28th in the league. If the Titans can't exploit that weakness, I don't know who can. The real question is with the Titans defense, as they finally cut their woeful CB Parish Cox. Brice McCain or rookie LeShaun Sims will get the start. Trevor Siemian is also listed as questionable for the Broncos, who need this game as badly as the Titans do.
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA - WSH -2
Both Jordan and Ryan Matthews are questionable, and I can't think of the last time I saw another Eagle make a play. There is a 70 yard difference in expected offensive yardage in favor of the Redskins. Without Lane Johnson, this Philly team just isn't dangerous. The late-season Redskins are exactly that, and Cousins has been clutch before.
ARIZONA @ MIAMI
Tyran Mathieu and Kiko Alonso are out, so both defenses are missing key pieces. Arizona is much better at stopping the rush than the Dolphins are, allowing about 100 yards a game to Miami's 130. Both teams have to have success running the ball to win, with little separation out wide. Arizona is 1-4 on the road, Miami is 5-1 at home. Not encouraging, until you look at the Dolphins lone home loss which came against Tennessee, another ground-first offense. I think Arizona can overcome their road woes and deal a significant blow to the Fins wildcard chances.
SAN DIEGO @ CAROLINA
Cam Newton and Rivera seem to be in a bit of a tiff at the moment. Losing will test relationships, but the division of play calling responsibility seems to be unduly focused of Kuechly and Rivera, as Cam rarely changes plays at the line or protections.
CINCINATTI @ CLEVELAND
I just can't pick the Browns. I really wanted to.
CHICAGO @ DETROIT - OVER 43 1/2
The only things missing from this game will be nearby, guarding the entrance to Comerica Park. Ohh my, Detroit has finally fielded a decent football team. Of course, I didn't expect them to, and they still lack anything resembling a RB. Jim Bob Cooter should get the NFL equivalent of a gold star, and a head coaching gig as soon as his contract expires. Also, Deandre Levy is back, and does not plan to break again anytime soon.
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS
Pretty much nobody has the Texans this week, which I think is surprising. While they can't score, they excel in the one defensive group that matters when you play the Colts. I expect Brock to make a boneheaded play or two, but I think this will be closer than the 6 1/2 point line suggests.
MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE - OVER 39
Jacksonville is actually better on both sides of the ball when yardage is considered. Their big failings are turnovers ( -18, dead last in the NFL). Minnesota sits at +13, and I expect the gap to grow before this game is through. Bradford has only thrown 3 picks all year.
NEW YORK JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO
The 9ers give up 169 rush yards a game. The Jets only allow 90. Both teams are playing for pride at this point, and with equally shitty passing attacks, the advantage goes to the Jets. I'm somewhat baffled Chip is rethinking the QB situation at this point in the year, particularly when Kaepernick has a 3-1 TD/INT ratio. San Fran also has to overcome whatever the opposite of a home field advantage is, and would probably prefer to play on the road than at Fake-Boob Valley, Lev-I-Early Stadium
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY
Fun Fact: the leading rushers for these two teams combine for 4 TD's. Basically, Tampa Bay's hopes rest squarely on Mike Evans' shoulder pads. I think their defense is good enough to keep the Saints around the 20 point mark, and expect this game to stay tight. Brees and Co have lost close a lot recently, and I expect them to do everything in their power to prevent being eliminated from the NFC South race. The fairy dust will come of Jameis soon enough, but I wouldn't expect it this week.
ATLANTA @ LOS ANGELES
Goff has 509 yards in 3 starts. He just can't throw the deep ball, and Fisher seems content to lose rather than attempt it. The Rams are 4/33 on third down during his tenure at QB, a damning indictment for a pitiful offense.
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY
This one will be fun. Still not over the Fail Mary, the Pack get to enjoy home cooking before testing their QB's bold words against a recently shaken up Seattle LOB. Earl Thomas is out for the year and possibly more after colliding with Kam Chancellor. If he does retire, his diminutive frame will be sorely missed (by no WR who has been properly introduced).
DALLAS @ NEW YORK GIANTS - DAL -4
I, like a vast majority of NFL fans, have been patiently waiting for the Cowboys to slip. They just haven't yet. The Giants will be without JPP, and struggle on 3rd down, regardless of yardage. There are not many justifications for picking against the Cowboys until someone does the improbable.
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND - BAL +7
Another nationally televised game that is sure to live up to it's billing. Tom Brady in a short season has 19 TD's and 1 INT. The Patriots have a point differential of +112, followed closely by Dallas at +105, then Seattle at +70. Nobody will get too much credit for predicting a DAL/NE Super Bowl, but it seems almost inevitable at this point. Baltimore is historically good at stopping the run, but Belichek could win a game without calling a single one.
Thursday, December 8, 2016
Thursday Night Props
In what will surely be the best Thursday Night Football, the two best teams from the best division in the NFL will play for what will most likely amount to the AFC West crown. I should let this
sleeping dog lie, but we both know I can't resist the urge to wake the dog, pretend it was a mistake, and smile at the blur that used to be the cat. The weather is the deciding factor for me. The game will be played in what feels like 10 degrees, a seriously hostile enviroment for any Californian, no matter what Derek Carr says. Justin Houston and Latavius Murray are healthy and will both put their own stamp on this game, but the question remains: Which team will pave it's way to the postseason?
Will either team score 3 unanswered? - No - +145
Margin of Victory - Raiders by 1-6 - +400
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 1-6 - +325
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 7-12 - +450
Anytime TD Scorer - Murray - (-125)
Anytime TD Scorer - Ware - (-120)
Anytime TD Scorer - Crabtree - +125
A. Cooper - Under 5 1/2 Receptions - (-105)
D. Carr - Passing Yards - Under 267 1/2 - (-115)
A. Smith - Passing Yards - Under 252 1/2 (-120)
Longest TD - Under 40 1/2 Yards - (-115)
Defensive or Special Teams Score? - No - (-180)
Seriously though, don't touch this game unless you enjoy nervousness and nail-biting.
Will either team score 3 unanswered? - No - +145
Margin of Victory - Raiders by 1-6 - +400
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 1-6 - +325
Margin of Victory - Chiefs by 7-12 - +450
Anytime TD Scorer - Murray - (-125)
Anytime TD Scorer - Ware - (-120)
Anytime TD Scorer - Crabtree - +125
A. Cooper - Under 5 1/2 Receptions - (-105)
D. Carr - Passing Yards - Under 267 1/2 - (-115)
A. Smith - Passing Yards - Under 252 1/2 (-120)
Longest TD - Under 40 1/2 Yards - (-115)
Defensive or Special Teams Score? - No - (-180)
Seriously though, don't touch this game unless you enjoy nervousness and nail-biting.
Saturday, December 3, 2016
Week 13 NFL Picks
Another week is in the books, and still we wait for news of the elusive "sure-thang". Last Sunday I did pretty well (11-2) bringing my straight-up totals to 71-35-7 (.661). I also discovered I still can't math good. Apologies. The games on Thursday I did not pick I will consider draws, even though I would have gone with the favorites. I was awful close to a mic-drop on Thursday night, reminding myself why it's nice to only lose in theory.
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA
With Poe and Houston both questionable, the rest of the Kansas City defense will have to put in the same sort of effort they found in Denver. This is a huge game in relation to playoff odds for both teams. Tampa Bay nips at the heels of the Falcons in the NFC South, and the Chiefs hope to stay in front of the Broncos who are all but guaranteed to win in Jacksonville.
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS
I think New Orleans is due for a letdown after they schelacked Gregg Williams and the Rams. Detroit seems due for a letdown of their own, after repeated late escapes. I like the Under at 53 1/2, based on how much both teams will understand what a two-score deficit means to their playoff hopes.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND
Gronk is out, which is cause for worry in Patriot nation. Not this week though, Brady is gunning for the title of winningest QB in NFL history, and I do not think the Rams have enough on offense to make him wait.
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE
Denard Robinson is in, but Allen Hurns is out, leaving a one dimensional offense even more limited than usual. Julius Thomas is out as well, so a bit of the homecoming drama will be missing. Paxton Lynch gets the start, and he is the only potential roadblock between the Broncos and another road W.
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY
Aaron Rodgers must be grateful Clooney will have to sit this game out. Without Watt and Clooney, I still expect to see the Packers struggle keeping Rodgers upright. Matthews has shifted to ILB for the Pack, and I think the front 7 get into Brock's head enough to win what is essentially a playoff game.
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINATTI
Wentz needs to get his swagger back, I think this is a good opportunity to do that. The Bengals have obvious flaws, but they will not go gently into the night.
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The Ravens can boast the best rush defense in DVOA history, a remarkable statistic for a team that would be .500 if they lose. Miami has played their way into a wild card spot, this game will be a fun one to watch.
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO
ESPN said it best: "Bears - 49er's biggest impact could be on 17' draft ...somebody has to win"
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND
Buffalo is plagued with injuries, with Watkins, Ihedigbo, and Dareus all questionable. Oakland looks like the team to challenge New England in the AFC.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH
The G-Men are on a 6 game win streak and still trail Dallas. I think they make the playoffs, but lose a few games first, including this one.
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA
The Redskins have played very well in recent weeks, I don't think Arizona can keep up.
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO
I have to use this space to issue a personal apology to James Winston. I wrote him off after his CFB collapse against Oregon. Not only has he developed into a useful QB, he has quite a knack for leadership. Big ups.
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE
When your team signs Dan France off the CLE practice squad, there are legitimate causes for concern.
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW YORK JETS
I really want the Colts to lose this one, but I can't think of a good reason they will.
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA
With Poe and Houston both questionable, the rest of the Kansas City defense will have to put in the same sort of effort they found in Denver. This is a huge game in relation to playoff odds for both teams. Tampa Bay nips at the heels of the Falcons in the NFC South, and the Chiefs hope to stay in front of the Broncos who are all but guaranteed to win in Jacksonville.
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS
I think New Orleans is due for a letdown after they schelacked Gregg Williams and the Rams. Detroit seems due for a letdown of their own, after repeated late escapes. I like the Under at 53 1/2, based on how much both teams will understand what a two-score deficit means to their playoff hopes.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND
Gronk is out, which is cause for worry in Patriot nation. Not this week though, Brady is gunning for the title of winningest QB in NFL history, and I do not think the Rams have enough on offense to make him wait.
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE
Denard Robinson is in, but Allen Hurns is out, leaving a one dimensional offense even more limited than usual. Julius Thomas is out as well, so a bit of the homecoming drama will be missing. Paxton Lynch gets the start, and he is the only potential roadblock between the Broncos and another road W.
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY
Aaron Rodgers must be grateful Clooney will have to sit this game out. Without Watt and Clooney, I still expect to see the Packers struggle keeping Rodgers upright. Matthews has shifted to ILB for the Pack, and I think the front 7 get into Brock's head enough to win what is essentially a playoff game.
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINATTI
Wentz needs to get his swagger back, I think this is a good opportunity to do that. The Bengals have obvious flaws, but they will not go gently into the night.
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The Ravens can boast the best rush defense in DVOA history, a remarkable statistic for a team that would be .500 if they lose. Miami has played their way into a wild card spot, this game will be a fun one to watch.
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO
ESPN said it best: "Bears - 49er's biggest impact could be on 17' draft ...somebody has to win"
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND
Buffalo is plagued with injuries, with Watkins, Ihedigbo, and Dareus all questionable. Oakland looks like the team to challenge New England in the AFC.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH
The G-Men are on a 6 game win streak and still trail Dallas. I think they make the playoffs, but lose a few games first, including this one.
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA
The Redskins have played very well in recent weeks, I don't think Arizona can keep up.
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO
I have to use this space to issue a personal apology to James Winston. I wrote him off after his CFB collapse against Oregon. Not only has he developed into a useful QB, he has quite a knack for leadership. Big ups.
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE
When your team signs Dan France off the CLE practice squad, there are legitimate causes for concern.
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW YORK JETS
I really want the Colts to lose this one, but I can't think of a good reason they will.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Just sitting down to watch this one, I expect quite a match.
First FG - DAL - + 300
First FG - MIN - + 400
First TD - E. Elliott - + 300
First TD - Thielen - + 1200
No TD - + 5000
Total Sacks - DAL - OVER 2 (-115)
If Dallas can run the ball in the first half, I think the game is over. The Vikings will have a lot of problems if they need to put the ball in the air (unlike Mr. Brady, who seems to be a natural).
First FG - DAL - + 300
First FG - MIN - + 400
First TD - E. Elliott - + 300
First TD - Thielen - + 1200
No TD - + 5000
Total Sacks - DAL - OVER 2 (-115)
If Dallas can run the ball in the first half, I think the game is over. The Vikings will have a lot of problems if they need to put the ball in the air (unlike Mr. Brady, who seems to be a natural).
Sunday, November 27, 2016
Week 12 NFL Picks
I guess I picked the wrong week to root for the little guys. Jacksonville at least denied the Lions the blowout some were expecting. In a week most experts did very well, I eeked over 50%. This week, I expect the expected.
Live streaming right now, my phone sabotaged me this morning.
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO TEN -6
Looking pretty safe so far. I think Mariota has the offense clicking at a level the Titans fans wouldn't have dared to dream of, but their defense is incredibly bad. They're taking a CB in the first round next year.
JACKSONVILLE@ BUFFALO OVER 45
I wanted to take the over off the board, but it's been there too long and I won't back away from something I posted on principle. The Bills are going to start running away with this, and I don't think the Jags can put up enough to reach this one. The Jags just tied it. Guess I might be right after all.
CINCINATTI @ BALTIMORE BAL -4 1/2
This one was easy to predict.
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA
Haven't seen much of this one, but I know it's close and I expect it to stay that way. Starting to lean towards the Cardinals because good defenses have beat the Falcons before.
CLEVELAND @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Dunno, don't care.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS
A welcome sight, the Rams have finally found some offense.
SAN FRANSISCO @ MIAMI
I never would have guessed that the 49ers could keep Ajayi as quiet as they have so far. Pretty impressive, but the Dolphins are still going to find a way.
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON
Haven't seen much of this one, but it falls in the category of close, interesting, and utterly impossible to predict.
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE SEA -6 1/2
It's a trap! I'm going to continue to milk that meme for all it's worth.
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND
The Panthers need Kuechly more than they need Cam. There is no replacement.
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW YORK JETS
The Jets can stop the run, not the pass. Brady will roll.
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
Looking forward to this one. A defensive battle worthy of the national spotlight, I expect the loser of this game to resign itself from the AFC West race.
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA
The Packers, even with Matthews back, will not right this ship.
Live streaming right now, my phone sabotaged me this morning.
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO TEN -6
Looking pretty safe so far. I think Mariota has the offense clicking at a level the Titans fans wouldn't have dared to dream of, but their defense is incredibly bad. They're taking a CB in the first round next year.
JACKSONVILLE@ BUFFALO OVER 45
I wanted to take the over off the board, but it's been there too long and I won't back away from something I posted on principle. The Bills are going to start running away with this, and I don't think the Jags can put up enough to reach this one. The Jags just tied it. Guess I might be right after all.
CINCINATTI @ BALTIMORE BAL -4 1/2
This one was easy to predict.
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA
Haven't seen much of this one, but I know it's close and I expect it to stay that way. Starting to lean towards the Cardinals because good defenses have beat the Falcons before.
CLEVELAND @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Dunno, don't care.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS
A welcome sight, the Rams have finally found some offense.
SAN FRANSISCO @ MIAMI
I never would have guessed that the 49ers could keep Ajayi as quiet as they have so far. Pretty impressive, but the Dolphins are still going to find a way.
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON
Haven't seen much of this one, but it falls in the category of close, interesting, and utterly impossible to predict.
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE SEA -6 1/2
It's a trap! I'm going to continue to milk that meme for all it's worth.
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND
The Panthers need Kuechly more than they need Cam. There is no replacement.
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW YORK JETS
The Jets can stop the run, not the pass. Brady will roll.
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
Looking forward to this one. A defensive battle worthy of the national spotlight, I expect the loser of this game to resign itself from the AFC West race.
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA
The Packers, even with Matthews back, will not right this ship.
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Thursday Night Props
So, the NFL threw me for a loop by scheduling three of these things. Can't we all just watch the Lions for one gawdamn week? One of my favorite pastimes is watching the Gobbler get passed around from team to team like the dirty bird it is.
MOST FIRST DOWNS - PIT (-3 1/2) - (-135)
FIRST TD - L. BELL (+350)
FIRST TD - S. COATES - +1400
ANYTIME TD -L. BELL - (-250)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 42 1/2 - (-115)
TOTAL FG'S - COLTS - OVER 1 1/2 ( -140)
TOTAL INT'S - COLTS - OVER 1/2 - (-225)
Lady Luck has finally broke the Titans way, as they force the Colts to go without their superstar for a week. I think the Steelers win comfortably, with good offense and a few mistakes from Tolzien.
MOST FIRST DOWNS - PIT (-3 1/2) - (-135)
FIRST TD - L. BELL (+350)
FIRST TD - S. COATES - +1400
ANYTIME TD -L. BELL - (-250)
LONGEST TD - UNDER 42 1/2 - (-115)
TOTAL FG'S - COLTS - OVER 1 1/2 ( -140)
TOTAL INT'S - COLTS - OVER 1/2 - (-225)
Lady Luck has finally broke the Titans way, as they force the Colts to go without their superstar for a week. I think the Steelers win comfortably, with good offense and a few mistakes from Tolzien.
Sunday, November 20, 2016
Week 11 NFL Picks
Ahh, where to begin. Thursday night finally went my way, but watching Luke Kuechly get carted off made me very sad. I have since recovered. Now I am fairly certain I have every game pegged, just like last week (7/7). There are a fair amount of locks this week, so I'll start with a parlay.
PIT KC NE SEA OAK
Moneylines were not available for NE-SF, so I had to take the line (-13). This leaves me at about 5/1. I've just been assuming my Sunday picks are (-115), so if I hit it, I'll give myself 4 wins and a pat on the back. If NE doesn't cover, I'll give myself 3 and a golf clap.
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
Well, I have to say, before Kalil and Kuechly went out, I called this game to a tee. Score 1 for Kyle.
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND - PIT (-9)
The Browns will get RGIII back when they play Cincinnati in week 14, and that's about it for things the Brown's faithful can look forward to. Expect them to add the Heisman winner and still suck. Then do it again on draft day. I don't think he will play this year, but if he does, he can't help their rush defense (140 ypg) or their scoring defense (30 ppg). The Steelers, after losing four straight, will not let this team beat them.
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS
I despise EZ-E and Dak Prescott. I like how they play ball. Jerry should be given credit for a great draft, because you know he didn't ask for any advice. I knew Dak would be a steal, but was not expecting Elliot. Romo oozes leadership and maturity, which both the young guns lack. Still, they would not be 8-1 if he didn't get hurt in Seattle. I think the Seahawks will be the next team to beat them, at Jerryworld, in the playoffs, just like Tony tweeted.
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT - OVER 48
My bold pick of the week is the Lions to lose at home. What a sentence that is. The Lions just cannot run the ball, and that is what has been giving the Jags fits all season. Jacksonville only gives up 215 passing yards a game, and while I expect Stafford to throw closer to 300, I think lady luck finally deserts a team that should be 3-6. Detroit's 5 wins have come by a total of 17 points. Of course, there is still the potential for a blowout if Bortles continues to throw to the wrong team (11 INT's). Jim Bob Cooter is a helluva coach, and his bag of tricks is deep. I think they run dry.
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS - TEN (+3)
I don't think I've ever enjoyed watching a regular season football game as much as I did watching the Titans blowout the Packers. It was instant, total, and exotically smashmouthed. Mariota made Aaron Rodgers look like Mr Rodgers. Delanie Walker was shedding tackles like a broken lawnmower. DeMarco Murray went to the house on the first play of the Titans first possession, then threw a TD to cap the second. Rishard Matthews saluted his fallen brother, and Tajae Sharpe took a nap after a long overdue first. The commentator recommended the victory formation with 10 minutes left. They go into Indy healthy and mad, having lost 10 straight (15 of 16) to the Colts. The Titans have arrived.
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI
This is easily my least confident pick. Both are already irrelevant in my eyes, with the wildcards both headed to the torrid AFC West. The Bengals have an outside shot, but I don't think they think they're good enough to take it. The swing vote was Eric Wood, the starting center for the Bills, being out due to a broken leg. There is never a good week to break in a new center. Just ask Cam.
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY
KC @ ARROWHEAD = W
CHICAGO @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Usually I expect teams that suffered a blowout to respond well the next week. The Bears (and the Pack) just can't beat a good team, or win on the road. To expect them to do both, while denying a desperate NFC East contender, is just too much to ask. Cutler is counting down the days to golf, and JPP is praying that this is the week that proves you don't need all of your fingers to grab a ... QB.
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA
The reports of the Viking's death are greatly exaggerated. Bradford has indeed reverted to his pre-Viking, turnover-prone ways, but the defense was all they had during their 5 game win streak. Now, they just have to outplay one of the league's other defenses. Arizona can't score either. The onus is on either defense to make a big play. The Honey Badger will be out, which is good news for the Norse, ankles, and slithery-snakes everywhere.
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES - OVER 39 1/2
Call me crazy (or maybe), but is L.A not where rushing attacks go to die? This defense is fahreal, and Goff is going to come out slingin' in his first NFL game. I think he makes a few mistakes, but also makes a few plays Keenum wouldn't dream of. Fisher strikes me as the type of coach to punish a rookie (and fans) who think he's the best available, even if it's true. Miami has played very well of late, and I think this is easily the most entertaining afternoon game.
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO - NE (-13)
The 9ers put a good scare in the Cardinals last week. They wish they could fast-forward to Monday this week.
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE
Stephen A. thinks the Eagles should sit Wentz for no other reason than the Seattle defense. I think he's right. It does not help that Jordan Matthews is questionable. The Eagles will need to keep the skies clear, and get some help from special teams just to keep this thing within reach.
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON - OVER 49 1/2
Clay Matthews makes or breaks the Packer defense, and if he is missing or limited I don't think they have much of a chance. The Cheese-Doodles will be missing two starting o-linemen, which is only made worse by Rodger's lack of mobility. Without any run game to speak of, I think Washington can drive a stake in the Packers hopes of being competitive this year. Lucky for them, the NFC North will still be there for the taking.
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND - OVER 46
I'm going with Oakland, because Houston will not be able to put up enough points. The Raiders have a variety of ways to beat you, but defense is generally not one of them. Osweiler just flat-out misses Hopkins on a consistent enough basis to lose games. Elevation will play a large role in this one, but I can't for the life of me figure out who will benefit more from it. The Azteca is 2000ft higher than Mile High, and will provide an atmosphere (or lack thereof) unlike any in London. The Texans are without their 2nd and 3rd string RB, and will be hoping Miller has shaken off a injured ankle. They need a lot of things to go right to win.
PIT KC NE SEA OAK
Moneylines were not available for NE-SF, so I had to take the line (-13). This leaves me at about 5/1. I've just been assuming my Sunday picks are (-115), so if I hit it, I'll give myself 4 wins and a pat on the back. If NE doesn't cover, I'll give myself 3 and a golf clap.
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
Well, I have to say, before Kalil and Kuechly went out, I called this game to a tee. Score 1 for Kyle.
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND - PIT (-9)
The Browns will get RGIII back when they play Cincinnati in week 14, and that's about it for things the Brown's faithful can look forward to. Expect them to add the Heisman winner and still suck. Then do it again on draft day. I don't think he will play this year, but if he does, he can't help their rush defense (140 ypg) or their scoring defense (30 ppg). The Steelers, after losing four straight, will not let this team beat them.
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS
I despise EZ-E and Dak Prescott. I like how they play ball. Jerry should be given credit for a great draft, because you know he didn't ask for any advice. I knew Dak would be a steal, but was not expecting Elliot. Romo oozes leadership and maturity, which both the young guns lack. Still, they would not be 8-1 if he didn't get hurt in Seattle. I think the Seahawks will be the next team to beat them, at Jerryworld, in the playoffs, just like Tony tweeted.
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT - OVER 48
My bold pick of the week is the Lions to lose at home. What a sentence that is. The Lions just cannot run the ball, and that is what has been giving the Jags fits all season. Jacksonville only gives up 215 passing yards a game, and while I expect Stafford to throw closer to 300, I think lady luck finally deserts a team that should be 3-6. Detroit's 5 wins have come by a total of 17 points. Of course, there is still the potential for a blowout if Bortles continues to throw to the wrong team (11 INT's). Jim Bob Cooter is a helluva coach, and his bag of tricks is deep. I think they run dry.
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS - TEN (+3)
I don't think I've ever enjoyed watching a regular season football game as much as I did watching the Titans blowout the Packers. It was instant, total, and exotically smashmouthed. Mariota made Aaron Rodgers look like Mr Rodgers. Delanie Walker was shedding tackles like a broken lawnmower. DeMarco Murray went to the house on the first play of the Titans first possession, then threw a TD to cap the second. Rishard Matthews saluted his fallen brother, and Tajae Sharpe took a nap after a long overdue first. The commentator recommended the victory formation with 10 minutes left. They go into Indy healthy and mad, having lost 10 straight (15 of 16) to the Colts. The Titans have arrived.
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI
This is easily my least confident pick. Both are already irrelevant in my eyes, with the wildcards both headed to the torrid AFC West. The Bengals have an outside shot, but I don't think they think they're good enough to take it. The swing vote was Eric Wood, the starting center for the Bills, being out due to a broken leg. There is never a good week to break in a new center. Just ask Cam.
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY
KC @ ARROWHEAD = W
CHICAGO @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Usually I expect teams that suffered a blowout to respond well the next week. The Bears (and the Pack) just can't beat a good team, or win on the road. To expect them to do both, while denying a desperate NFC East contender, is just too much to ask. Cutler is counting down the days to golf, and JPP is praying that this is the week that proves you don't need all of your fingers to grab a ... QB.
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA
The reports of the Viking's death are greatly exaggerated. Bradford has indeed reverted to his pre-Viking, turnover-prone ways, but the defense was all they had during their 5 game win streak. Now, they just have to outplay one of the league's other defenses. Arizona can't score either. The onus is on either defense to make a big play. The Honey Badger will be out, which is good news for the Norse, ankles, and slithery-snakes everywhere.
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES - OVER 39 1/2
Call me crazy (or maybe), but is L.A not where rushing attacks go to die? This defense is fahreal, and Goff is going to come out slingin' in his first NFL game. I think he makes a few mistakes, but also makes a few plays Keenum wouldn't dream of. Fisher strikes me as the type of coach to punish a rookie (and fans) who think he's the best available, even if it's true. Miami has played very well of late, and I think this is easily the most entertaining afternoon game.
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO - NE (-13)
The 9ers put a good scare in the Cardinals last week. They wish they could fast-forward to Monday this week.
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE
Stephen A. thinks the Eagles should sit Wentz for no other reason than the Seattle defense. I think he's right. It does not help that Jordan Matthews is questionable. The Eagles will need to keep the skies clear, and get some help from special teams just to keep this thing within reach.
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON - OVER 49 1/2
Clay Matthews makes or breaks the Packer defense, and if he is missing or limited I don't think they have much of a chance. The Cheese-Doodles will be missing two starting o-linemen, which is only made worse by Rodger's lack of mobility. Without any run game to speak of, I think Washington can drive a stake in the Packers hopes of being competitive this year. Lucky for them, the NFC North will still be there for the taking.
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND - OVER 46
I'm going with Oakland, because Houston will not be able to put up enough points. The Raiders have a variety of ways to beat you, but defense is generally not one of them. Osweiler just flat-out misses Hopkins on a consistent enough basis to lose games. Elevation will play a large role in this one, but I can't for the life of me figure out who will benefit more from it. The Azteca is 2000ft higher than Mile High, and will provide an atmosphere (or lack thereof) unlike any in London. The Texans are without their 2nd and 3rd string RB, and will be hoping Miller has shaken off a injured ankle. They need a lot of things to go right to win.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Thursday Night Props
After a two forgettable weeks, a wonderfully useless HOU-DEN (+520) and a disastrous CLE-BAL (-640), my grand total of Thursday night profit is 8 simoleons. C'est la vie.
TOTAL SCORE - UNDER 53 1/2 - (-110)
FIRST TD - STEWART - +750
ANYTIME TD - STEWART +120 - BENJAMIN EVEN -
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - STEWART - OVER 69 1/2 - (-115)
LONGEST TD - SAINTS - (-115)
TOTAL TD'S - UNDER 6 (-115)
TOTAL SACKS - SAINTS - OVER 2 (-115)
My gut feeling is Carolina rolls. I know that the Saints just arguably beat Denver, but they are on the road against a team that has a lot of pride at stake. Cam, and the healthy Panther secondary, have no path to the playoffs except to win every division game left, starting tonight. If they can avoid early mistakes, look for Stewart and Cam to focus on short gains and clock management.
"They are (looking at me under a microscope), but what am I going to change? My aggressiveness? My beastiality?"
Washighton cornerback Josh Norman, not planning on having sex with any fewer animals despite being under heavy scrutiny around the league for his controversial play. (Ben Standig, Breaking Burgundy) - Football Outsiders
TOTAL SCORE - UNDER 53 1/2 - (-110)
FIRST TD - STEWART - +750
ANYTIME TD - STEWART +120 - BENJAMIN EVEN -
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - STEWART - OVER 69 1/2 - (-115)
LONGEST TD - SAINTS - (-115)
TOTAL TD'S - UNDER 6 (-115)
TOTAL SACKS - SAINTS - OVER 2 (-115)
My gut feeling is Carolina rolls. I know that the Saints just arguably beat Denver, but they are on the road against a team that has a lot of pride at stake. Cam, and the healthy Panther secondary, have no path to the playoffs except to win every division game left, starting tonight. If they can avoid early mistakes, look for Stewart and Cam to focus on short gains and clock management.
"They are (looking at me under a microscope), but what am I going to change? My aggressiveness? My beastiality?"
Washighton cornerback Josh Norman, not planning on having sex with any fewer animals despite being under heavy scrutiny around the league for his controversial play. (Ben Standig, Breaking Burgundy) - Football Outsiders
Sunday, November 13, 2016
Week 10 NFL Picks
So, I'm just going to throw the picks up and update the blog with my reasoning and bets as kickoff approaches. Pretty much everything subject to change before 10.
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE
fuckitty fuck fuck Josh McCown!?! WTF Hue. I believed in you.
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE
Mariota has been unfairly singled out as the only reason for the Titans losses. He certainly has some gigantic turnovers to answer for, but I place the blame squarely on the refs for this last one.
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON
The inability to score has caught up to Minnesota. They really need to win this game, but I don't think anybody is afraid to play the Vikings anymore. Until Bradford leads a comeback, they won't be.
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY
A tough game to call here. I hedge toward the home team, but I wouldn't recommend betting or watching this one.
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA
This one simply comes down to who wants it more. I don't think the Chiefs play particularly well on the road, and the Panthers have been playing for their season since they lost to the Buccaneers.
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA
This is my pick for the game of the week, along with SEA - NE. Both teams certainly need the boost that comes with beating a contender, and they can expect to see each other in the NFC hunt.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW YORK JETS (UNDER 39)
This one has been picked pretty heavy for the Jets, and I feel pretty uneasy about following suit. If the Rams could score, I would go with them, but this is a watchable game I don't expect anyone to watch.
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS (NO -3)
Without Talib, the Denver secondary took a big step back. The Oakland passing attack and the New Orleans passing attack resemble each other too much to feel good about their chances in the dome.
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE (HOU +2)
The Texans have a good passing defense, and Jacksonville is stuck in the air. They hung around in Kansas City, but I think that's more because of Nick Foles than anything they did.
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO (SD- 4 1/2)
Nobody's giving Miami a chance on the road, and I won't either. A 4 1/2 point line seems to suggest Vegas thinks this will be a closer game than the pundits expect.
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH (DAL +2)
The Cowboys haven't been stopped by anyone yet. I don't think Pittsburgh has the answer, but I do want them to win this one, for totally non-selfish reasons. The history should at least make it tough.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA
A 14 point line is too much for me, but I don't really have a good reason to tell anybody else it won't happen.
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND (SEA +8)
The Patriots remember the Fail Mary, and expect to get some street cred they don't even need.
CINCINNATI @ NEW YORK GIANTS
No thoughts on this one. The Giants have burned me too much to pick against them again.
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE
fuckitty fuck fuck Josh McCown!?! WTF Hue. I believed in you.
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE
Mariota has been unfairly singled out as the only reason for the Titans losses. He certainly has some gigantic turnovers to answer for, but I place the blame squarely on the refs for this last one.
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON
The inability to score has caught up to Minnesota. They really need to win this game, but I don't think anybody is afraid to play the Vikings anymore. Until Bradford leads a comeback, they won't be.
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY
A tough game to call here. I hedge toward the home team, but I wouldn't recommend betting or watching this one.
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA
This one simply comes down to who wants it more. I don't think the Chiefs play particularly well on the road, and the Panthers have been playing for their season since they lost to the Buccaneers.
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA
This is my pick for the game of the week, along with SEA - NE. Both teams certainly need the boost that comes with beating a contender, and they can expect to see each other in the NFC hunt.
LOS ANGELES @ NEW YORK JETS (UNDER 39)
This one has been picked pretty heavy for the Jets, and I feel pretty uneasy about following suit. If the Rams could score, I would go with them, but this is a watchable game I don't expect anyone to watch.
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS (NO -3)
Without Talib, the Denver secondary took a big step back. The Oakland passing attack and the New Orleans passing attack resemble each other too much to feel good about their chances in the dome.
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE (HOU +2)
The Texans have a good passing defense, and Jacksonville is stuck in the air. They hung around in Kansas City, but I think that's more because of Nick Foles than anything they did.
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO (SD- 4 1/2)
Nobody's giving Miami a chance on the road, and I won't either. A 4 1/2 point line seems to suggest Vegas thinks this will be a closer game than the pundits expect.
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH (DAL +2)
The Cowboys haven't been stopped by anyone yet. I don't think Pittsburgh has the answer, but I do want them to win this one, for totally non-selfish reasons. The history should at least make it tough.
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA
A 14 point line is too much for me, but I don't really have a good reason to tell anybody else it won't happen.
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND (SEA +8)
The Patriots remember the Fail Mary, and expect to get some street cred they don't even need.
CINCINNATI @ NEW YORK GIANTS
No thoughts on this one. The Giants have burned me too much to pick against them again.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Aight, so updated S.U totals are at 32-19-4. As far as the bets go, the totals (excluding Thursdays) to date are 9-12, and on Thursdays my prop totals are at 16-11, but I'm still crunching the numbers in terms of profit. I'm also including the bets I made for the HOU-DEN game, which I did not post.
As a Lions fan, it would be nice to not be remembered as the only 0-16 team in history. The Browns, by losing every game, cannot make a claim to be better than any other team in the league. They are considerably better than some, though, being JAX and S.F. The carousel at QB is the x-factor. For the last few weeks (excluding Dallas) I've been telling myself I can be the boy who cried Browns win first. Even though Baltimore has everything to lose, they play close games every week.
WINNING MARGIN - +1- 6 - BROWNS - (+600)
FIRST TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+900) - T. WEST (+500)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+175) - T. WEST (-125)
SUCCESSFUL FG'S - BROWNS - OVER 1 1/2 (+110)
TOTAL PASSING YARDS - KESSLER - OVER 225 1/2 - (-125)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. WEST - OVER 62 1/2 (-115)
RECEIVING YARDS - S. SMITH - OVER 54 1/2 (-125)
FIRST SCORE - BROWNS FG - (+425)
NOTE: There is an odd line on Bovada regarding the first TD scorer. They excluded Mike Wallace from the list, and "field" is at +500. Be warned, he will be covered by Joe Haden, the Brown's best CB. I don't feel it's worth the risk, but if Haden isn't quite healthy, it could be a steal.
I understand how much better Baltimore's organization is, and how strong their defense is in comparison to Cleveland's. They simply don't allow any opponent to rush. Kessler has been sneaky good though, with 5 TD's to 1 INT. If I was playing with money, I might take the Browns at +8, but would certainly like the Ravens to get it done at home. Since I'm not, I'll let caution slip and yet again chase the gambler's white dragon of the first Browns win.
As a Lions fan, it would be nice to not be remembered as the only 0-16 team in history. The Browns, by losing every game, cannot make a claim to be better than any other team in the league. They are considerably better than some, though, being JAX and S.F. The carousel at QB is the x-factor. For the last few weeks (excluding Dallas) I've been telling myself I can be the boy who cried Browns win first. Even though Baltimore has everything to lose, they play close games every week.
WINNING MARGIN - +1- 6 - BROWNS - (+600)
FIRST TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+900) - T. WEST (+500)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - PRYOR SR (+175) - T. WEST (-125)
SUCCESSFUL FG'S - BROWNS - OVER 1 1/2 (+110)
TOTAL PASSING YARDS - KESSLER - OVER 225 1/2 - (-125)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - T. WEST - OVER 62 1/2 (-115)
RECEIVING YARDS - S. SMITH - OVER 54 1/2 (-125)
FIRST SCORE - BROWNS FG - (+425)
NOTE: There is an odd line on Bovada regarding the first TD scorer. They excluded Mike Wallace from the list, and "field" is at +500. Be warned, he will be covered by Joe Haden, the Brown's best CB. I don't feel it's worth the risk, but if Haden isn't quite healthy, it could be a steal.
I understand how much better Baltimore's organization is, and how strong their defense is in comparison to Cleveland's. They simply don't allow any opponent to rush. Kessler has been sneaky good though, with 5 TD's to 1 INT. If I was playing with money, I might take the Browns at +8, but would certainly like the Ravens to get it done at home. Since I'm not, I'll let caution slip and yet again chase the gambler's white dragon of the first Browns win.
Saturday, November 5, 2016
Week 9 NFL Picks
So, my totally-not-made-up, straight up totals are 23-15-4. The "4" stems from the two ties and two games I forgot to pick. I'll get into where I've been right and wrong a little more later, but I wanted to get my picks in ASAP. If you know me well, the last minute is ASAP.
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND
The 'Boy's are at a crossroads. They seem to have already determined what is best for them, but we are getting to the point where someone needs to explain this to Tony. If I were him, I would retire. I would also have never played this barbaric sport, cuz I am a 5'11'', 190lb, smart cookie who likes his internal organs to remain where God intended. Kessler will get some points up, but not enough. I do think they win a game before the season is out, but there isn't a patsy left on the Brown's schedule.
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE
This game hinges on Roethlisberger's meniscus. The very idea of playing football two weeks after knee surgery boggles the mind, particularly when it's against your biggest rival. Even healthy, Big Ben is about as mobile as his namesake, and Sunday he will be sporting an incredibly short leash. Both teams are coming off the bye. Home team gets the edge, especially considering how badly the Ravens need a W.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA - DET + 6 1/2
Minnesota is at 5-2 with the league's second worst offense. This is a pretty big trap game for them, and I think the pieces Detroit may get back on D will seriously hamper their chances of putting points on the board. The unexpected departure of Norv Turner will mean his replacement( TE coach Pat Shurmur) will keep the Lions guessing. I have to give a big shoutout to family friend Audie Cole, who will get the start in place of injured MLB Eric Kendricks this week. If anybody can get me to root against the Lions, it's him.
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY - UNDER 44
Without QB Alex Smith (who is not in the concussion protocol, but almost certainly has one) the Chiefs will turn to Nick Foles, a perfectly suitable, if uninspiring, backup. Jacksonville should come out hot, as they got embarrassed by Tennessee on national TV last week. Any offense as pass-heavy as the Jag's is terrified of Arrowhead. After firing their OC Greg Olsen, all eyes will be on Gus Bradley. I think it was a largely symbolic gesture, and he is being allowed to finish out the year.
DENVER @ OAKLAND - DEN (PICK EM')
Please excuse me while I barf some stats. The gap between what the Broncos allow through the air (202 ypg) and what OAK expects to gain (290 ypg) highlights how critical it is for both of these teams to win their matchups on the outside. The Broncos will have to do so without Aquib Talib, who is out with a back injury. Amari Cooper is questionable for Oakland. The Raiders just don't have an alternative, and have struggled mightily against defenses who cover well. Their average yardage numbers (406 for - 417 against) show just how lucky they were. I have a virulent dislike for Jack Del Rio and Derek Carr, and intend to enjoy every bit of their regression to the mean.
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -
We are starting to reach the point where there is no road to recovery for certain teams. Either of these two can recover from a loss this week, but not easily. Essentially half the playmakers for GB are hurt, and they still managed to play ATL close. Indy's issues mostly lie with the offensive line. The Colts are also very vulnerable through the air, giving up 413 yards a game. Rodgers feasts on defenses that soft, particularly at home.
CAROLINA @ L.A RAMS - UNDER 44
My weekly Swami-Sez-Wrong pick is Carolina to win on the road. I think the Rams are certainly built to stop the read-option attack that makes the Panthers dangerous, but my issue is with their own offense. Gurley hasn't done much to justify his preseason hype, and with Goff waiting in the wings, I think Keenum will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand. The Panthers essentially need to win out to make the playoffs, and I don't think they are ready to give up on this year just yet.
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS - OVER 43
Josh Huff had himself a DAT (or Blount, or Lyerla or...) moment when he was caught speeding across state lines with hollow-points and <50g of reefer. As much as I support the second amendment and marijuana legalization, he gave the PHI ownership no choice. To his credit, he has said all the right things in the aftermath; hardly consolation to his special team-ates. The Giants had their entire roster at practice, with OBJ's banged-up hip being the only injury nine weeks in. That's pretty odd. Lane Johnson's suspension is seriously hurting the Eagles, but I think they get a turnover or two and win.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI - UNDER 44
In this week's "game nobody's watching", the Jets will bring their elite rush defense to Miami's recently elite rushing offense. I was one of the unfortunates who dropped Ajayi in Wk 6, and as such, would like to not have a monument to my own stupidity enshrined in the record books. The simmering feud of Marshall v. Maxwell will probably determine the outcome of this one, and I think Byron can win that battle again.
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO - N.O -4
The 49er's simply cannot stop the run. Lucky for them, The Saint's don't. There's probably more attention given to Kaepernick's protest than the rest of the team combined. They will get Carlos Hyde back, and that will certainly help, but I think this team is considerably worse than the Browns. Kaep will continue to make mistakes downfield, and I think the Saints win very big on the road.
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO - OVER 47 1/2
The best 3-5 team in the NFL needs W's to keep up in the fierce AFC West. The city itself is about to vote on the plans to fund a new stadium. As much as I like what the Titans have been able to do, I cannot in good conscience ignore how significant this game is to the other boys in powder blue.
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE - BUF +7
This has all the makings of another 9-6, 13-10 type slugfest. Seattle has put themselves in a good spot. They still can't score, but the tie with Arizona pretty much ensured them a playoff berth if they just stay .500 the rest of the year. Pete should have something special cooked up on offense, considering that's all he really needs to work on. I have Beast Mode on my fantasy bench, just in case. It's hard to imagine the Bills leaving the Clink with a W, but a defensive score could do it.
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND
The 'Boy's are at a crossroads. They seem to have already determined what is best for them, but we are getting to the point where someone needs to explain this to Tony. If I were him, I would retire. I would also have never played this barbaric sport, cuz I am a 5'11'', 190lb, smart cookie who likes his internal organs to remain where God intended. Kessler will get some points up, but not enough. I do think they win a game before the season is out, but there isn't a patsy left on the Brown's schedule.
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE
This game hinges on Roethlisberger's meniscus. The very idea of playing football two weeks after knee surgery boggles the mind, particularly when it's against your biggest rival. Even healthy, Big Ben is about as mobile as his namesake, and Sunday he will be sporting an incredibly short leash. Both teams are coming off the bye. Home team gets the edge, especially considering how badly the Ravens need a W.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA - DET + 6 1/2
Minnesota is at 5-2 with the league's second worst offense. This is a pretty big trap game for them, and I think the pieces Detroit may get back on D will seriously hamper their chances of putting points on the board. The unexpected departure of Norv Turner will mean his replacement( TE coach Pat Shurmur) will keep the Lions guessing. I have to give a big shoutout to family friend Audie Cole, who will get the start in place of injured MLB Eric Kendricks this week. If anybody can get me to root against the Lions, it's him.
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY - UNDER 44
Without QB Alex Smith (who is not in the concussion protocol, but almost certainly has one) the Chiefs will turn to Nick Foles, a perfectly suitable, if uninspiring, backup. Jacksonville should come out hot, as they got embarrassed by Tennessee on national TV last week. Any offense as pass-heavy as the Jag's is terrified of Arrowhead. After firing their OC Greg Olsen, all eyes will be on Gus Bradley. I think it was a largely symbolic gesture, and he is being allowed to finish out the year.
DENVER @ OAKLAND - DEN (PICK EM')
Please excuse me while I barf some stats. The gap between what the Broncos allow through the air (202 ypg) and what OAK expects to gain (290 ypg) highlights how critical it is for both of these teams to win their matchups on the outside. The Broncos will have to do so without Aquib Talib, who is out with a back injury. Amari Cooper is questionable for Oakland. The Raiders just don't have an alternative, and have struggled mightily against defenses who cover well. Their average yardage numbers (406 for - 417 against) show just how lucky they were. I have a virulent dislike for Jack Del Rio and Derek Carr, and intend to enjoy every bit of their regression to the mean.
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -
We are starting to reach the point where there is no road to recovery for certain teams. Either of these two can recover from a loss this week, but not easily. Essentially half the playmakers for GB are hurt, and they still managed to play ATL close. Indy's issues mostly lie with the offensive line. The Colts are also very vulnerable through the air, giving up 413 yards a game. Rodgers feasts on defenses that soft, particularly at home.
CAROLINA @ L.A RAMS - UNDER 44
My weekly Swami-Sez-Wrong pick is Carolina to win on the road. I think the Rams are certainly built to stop the read-option attack that makes the Panthers dangerous, but my issue is with their own offense. Gurley hasn't done much to justify his preseason hype, and with Goff waiting in the wings, I think Keenum will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand. The Panthers essentially need to win out to make the playoffs, and I don't think they are ready to give up on this year just yet.
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS - OVER 43
Josh Huff had himself a DAT (or Blount, or Lyerla or...) moment when he was caught speeding across state lines with hollow-points and <50g of reefer. As much as I support the second amendment and marijuana legalization, he gave the PHI ownership no choice. To his credit, he has said all the right things in the aftermath; hardly consolation to his special team-ates. The Giants had their entire roster at practice, with OBJ's banged-up hip being the only injury nine weeks in. That's pretty odd. Lane Johnson's suspension is seriously hurting the Eagles, but I think they get a turnover or two and win.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI - UNDER 44
In this week's "game nobody's watching", the Jets will bring their elite rush defense to Miami's recently elite rushing offense. I was one of the unfortunates who dropped Ajayi in Wk 6, and as such, would like to not have a monument to my own stupidity enshrined in the record books. The simmering feud of Marshall v. Maxwell will probably determine the outcome of this one, and I think Byron can win that battle again.
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO - N.O -4
The 49er's simply cannot stop the run. Lucky for them, The Saint's don't. There's probably more attention given to Kaepernick's protest than the rest of the team combined. They will get Carlos Hyde back, and that will certainly help, but I think this team is considerably worse than the Browns. Kaep will continue to make mistakes downfield, and I think the Saints win very big on the road.
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO - OVER 47 1/2
The best 3-5 team in the NFL needs W's to keep up in the fierce AFC West. The city itself is about to vote on the plans to fund a new stadium. As much as I like what the Titans have been able to do, I cannot in good conscience ignore how significant this game is to the other boys in powder blue.
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE - BUF +7
This has all the makings of another 9-6, 13-10 type slugfest. Seattle has put themselves in a good spot. They still can't score, but the tie with Arizona pretty much ensured them a playoff berth if they just stay .500 the rest of the year. Pete should have something special cooked up on offense, considering that's all he really needs to work on. I have Beast Mode on my fantasy bench, just in case. It's hard to imagine the Bills leaving the Clink with a W, but a defensive score could do it.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Thursday Night Props
Ahh, what a game. S.F got some sweet revenge on the city that dashed their dreams, and even the Indians players will eventually be happy to have been involved in getting that monkey off the MLB's collective back. If only the Browns were so lucky. Not soon, but I do think their title is coming and Francona will get them there.
Anyways, time to move on to sub-optimal football. This one has all the makings of a landslide.
ANYTIME TD SCORER - FREEMAN (-175)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - M. EVANS (-110)
TOTAL YARDS - FREEMAN - OVER 64 1/2 (-115)
LONGEST TD YARDAGE - UNDER 44 1/2 (-115)
TOTAL SUCCESSFUL FG'S - TB - OVER 1 1/2 (-130)
TOTAL INT'S THROWN - WINSTON - OVER 1/2 (-200)
I am still wavering on the longest TD call, given Julio's deep threat ability. He's been on my fantasy team though, and has put up enough duds so far that I'd rather bet against it. I think ATL gets up eventually and has no issue stopping TB's limited offense, leading to a long night for the Bucs and another boring Thursday night game for the rest of us.
Anyways, time to move on to sub-optimal football. This one has all the makings of a landslide.
ANYTIME TD SCORER - FREEMAN (-175)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - M. EVANS (-110)
TOTAL YARDS - FREEMAN - OVER 64 1/2 (-115)
LONGEST TD YARDAGE - UNDER 44 1/2 (-115)
TOTAL SUCCESSFUL FG'S - TB - OVER 1 1/2 (-130)
TOTAL INT'S THROWN - WINSTON - OVER 1/2 (-200)
I am still wavering on the longest TD call, given Julio's deep threat ability. He's been on my fantasy team though, and has put up enough duds so far that I'd rather bet against it. I think ATL gets up eventually and has no issue stopping TB's limited offense, leading to a long night for the Bucs and another boring Thursday night game for the rest of us.
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Week 8 NFL Picks
Second week, third format.
A special ring in hell awaits the pastor who tends his flock past 10 on the west coast. Even 9 is too late to microwave breakfast, shed your children, pants and all, and strap yourself into your couch to witness the glory of Redbone, which is what my phone thinks I mean when I type REDZONE.
No commercials, baby. Gotta love that.
Also, 6 30 is what time I get up anyway.
WASHING MACHINE @ MEXICAN TIGERS
After getting beat at the death by Matthew Stafford, the Redskins, like the Lions, have shown us they will be in every game this year. Yes, they still got the belt, but heavy is the head that brags about the crown. It's a toss up against AJ Green, per usual. Hail Mary might be the only play left in the book by the end of the season. Beating the Browns does not a season save.
ERRIZONA @ CAROLYIN'TAYA
Carson Handler, bless his heart, seems to be getting too old for this. I wouldn't write him off just yet, struggling against Seattle is something young Fister did too. That said, you won't like Scam when he's angry, which is all the time now. Josh "Batman" Norman seems to have won Rd 1, which is as good as a death sentence in today's NFL. The defense (guided by Luke Keekley) will not show up at home.
PATRIOTS @ BLUFFALO
Shady's doubtful, and Brady's in town. Surefire Bill's win. What did I just say? A Belichek never forgets.
CHEESTEAKS @ OH BOYS
Again, this is not a Schwartz defense. It is an Oregon defense minus the yellow...and...orange?!? Men of a certain age remember Nike killed Puddles. They also killed "WHAT ARE THOSE!!!" By making me ask every single fucking game since homecoming against Cal. Did I say ducks? I meant QUACKERS.
Anyways, Carson Wentzsomewhere v. Dakota Prescott should be fun. I look forward to seeing Romantic in Cleveland (sp?) next year.
In the longest and realest game of Cowboys versus Indians this country has ever played, the Eagles win. Seriously, who is watching football this week?
CLEAVELAND @ BOING
Lyan Fitzpatrick had his statement game, and then issued a curious statement.
Saying an organization "lost faith in you" after getting your job back due to injury highlights the internal divide between the Jet's QB'S. This would not fly in New England, and will cost him the teammates who wanted to give Geno a shot at a job he lost in Kansas City. He got in to Harvard, and graduated, but somehow never learned to stop doing exactly what every backup does on the bench. Weird. I never lost faith in you, Fitz. Hope you're still readin'.
CHEESEPACKERS @ SMALL BAMBINO
The Seattle steal, and the supercharged home loss have left a bad taste in the mouth of a team that is too good to lose a third straight game at home IMHO. Both have questions to answer on D, but all ties go to the home squad and I have not seen the Cheesers give a comprehensive defensive effort like the Zapadoses before them. Particularly against a great wideout like Mr. Jones.
The Swami sez he was picking for GB, not against ATL, and I think he's wrong. Not by much, which is important. He got the SD-ATL perfectly right, and looked like a savant doing so. In a league where most games between playoff teams come down to the last possession (cough NBA* cough) he is right in picking a close game that could very well go either way. We saw what Stafford did in Lame-beau, Rodgers will have to match it in Atlameta to win.
MINI-SORTA @ DOH'S BEARS
I'm assuming they got beat by Mold and now have to take on a 5-1 Norse God that was somehow humiliated by Josh Huff. Apparently, Terrance Oldman does not cover kicks... Either way, Badford needs an early lead, and a special teams TD came at exactly the wrong time. I think they take the cubbies seriously and beat them, seriously.
Between Cutlery, Meridith, Howard and Matt Barkley (did anyone know he was still around?) THE bears lack firepower.
The Cubs and Indians have the talking stick right now, and their respective football teams are being ignored by their own fan base. Not a recipe for success.
SWATTLE @ NOLEANS
I will let the chickens make a mistake before I pick against them, even in the breezy superdome. "Kick Gateghazi" in Arizona was the boring, nil-nil draw football fans love to watch, and I will assume Jimmy Crackers gets up for this one, then declines to dunk the football.
PILLAGE PEOPLE @ PILLAGE PEOPLE
Car is sputtering, and Jaquizz just made Kaplan look pretty dumb. Pinning their recent losses on Derek would ignore that he needs 30+ points a game (and stellar WR play) to win a game. This defense will not stop this other defense. Let the shootout begin.
CHEEFS @ HORSIES
They took their show on the road to the bae-area after a bye week, which is no surprise given the teams recent history. I still have some qualms about their ability to do so consistently, but any team would play better in a stadium like Arrowhead.
Lucas Oil Stadium just doesn't create the same atmosphere. It's not a fortress. Luck can't beat this secondary without a legitimate threat to KFCseizes' front 7 in their own backfield.
I obviously don't think the Titans should have lost to Mathis, but Marita should disagree and certainly acted like it.
The Whinney's let a big lead slip late in Houston, and they were prepared to no do so again. I'm inclined to believe the men in red will outrun their horses.
LY-IN-S @ PROBLEM HERE
The real question with the kitties is health in their front 7. H who will no be named and Lame r Miller have not had much success on the ground (insert horse buggy metaphor here) or in the air with the exception of a bonkers play against some boys in blue. Mr. Miller is iffy for this game, but with Ngata and the Levy in the same boat a week away from the real Lion's den in minnie apple us, I think Blue plays very well in this one.
Oswellthatdoesn'tsuck was not alone in DEN, as much as he has struggled elsewhere. H should brush off his jersey and prepare him for D if they understand that. Stafford is simply better equipped, but he is on the road.
I think a Fuller/Tate comparison needs to be made, both will beat you if you're slow. The whole city took that loss personally and I think they get their team through this one. On paper, there is nothing that can stop M. Jones (except his daughter, who held him out of practice Wednesday).
You pick em'. I'll grade the test. :)
A special ring in hell awaits the pastor who tends his flock past 10 on the west coast. Even 9 is too late to microwave breakfast, shed your children, pants and all, and strap yourself into your couch to witness the glory of Redbone, which is what my phone thinks I mean when I type REDZONE.
No commercials, baby. Gotta love that.
Also, 6 30 is what time I get up anyway.
WASHING MACHINE @ MEXICAN TIGERS
After getting beat at the death by Matthew Stafford, the Redskins, like the Lions, have shown us they will be in every game this year. Yes, they still got the belt, but heavy is the head that brags about the crown. It's a toss up against AJ Green, per usual. Hail Mary might be the only play left in the book by the end of the season. Beating the Browns does not a season save.
ERRIZONA @ CAROLYIN'TAYA
Carson Handler, bless his heart, seems to be getting too old for this. I wouldn't write him off just yet, struggling against Seattle is something young Fister did too. That said, you won't like Scam when he's angry, which is all the time now. Josh "Batman" Norman seems to have won Rd 1, which is as good as a death sentence in today's NFL. The defense (guided by Luke Keekley) will not show up at home.
PATRIOTS @ BLUFFALO
Shady's doubtful, and Brady's in town. Surefire Bill's win. What did I just say? A Belichek never forgets.
CHEESTEAKS @ OH BOYS
Again, this is not a Schwartz defense. It is an Oregon defense minus the yellow...and...orange?!? Men of a certain age remember Nike killed Puddles. They also killed "WHAT ARE THOSE!!!" By making me ask every single fucking game since homecoming against Cal. Did I say ducks? I meant QUACKERS.
Anyways, Carson Wentzsomewhere v. Dakota Prescott should be fun. I look forward to seeing Romantic in Cleveland (sp?) next year.
In the longest and realest game of Cowboys versus Indians this country has ever played, the Eagles win. Seriously, who is watching football this week?
CLEAVELAND @ BOING
Lyan Fitzpatrick had his statement game, and then issued a curious statement.
Saying an organization "lost faith in you" after getting your job back due to injury highlights the internal divide between the Jet's QB'S. This would not fly in New England, and will cost him the teammates who wanted to give Geno a shot at a job he lost in Kansas City. He got in to Harvard, and graduated, but somehow never learned to stop doing exactly what every backup does on the bench. Weird. I never lost faith in you, Fitz. Hope you're still readin'.
CHEESEPACKERS @ SMALL BAMBINO
The Seattle steal, and the supercharged home loss have left a bad taste in the mouth of a team that is too good to lose a third straight game at home IMHO. Both have questions to answer on D, but all ties go to the home squad and I have not seen the Cheesers give a comprehensive defensive effort like the Zapadoses before them. Particularly against a great wideout like Mr. Jones.
The Swami sez he was picking for GB, not against ATL, and I think he's wrong. Not by much, which is important. He got the SD-ATL perfectly right, and looked like a savant doing so. In a league where most games between playoff teams come down to the last possession (cough NBA* cough) he is right in picking a close game that could very well go either way. We saw what Stafford did in Lame-beau, Rodgers will have to match it in Atlameta to win.
MINI-SORTA @ DOH'S BEARS
I'm assuming they got beat by Mold and now have to take on a 5-1 Norse God that was somehow humiliated by Josh Huff. Apparently, Terrance Oldman does not cover kicks... Either way, Badford needs an early lead, and a special teams TD came at exactly the wrong time. I think they take the cubbies seriously and beat them, seriously.
Between Cutlery, Meridith, Howard and Matt Barkley (did anyone know he was still around?) THE bears lack firepower.
The Cubs and Indians have the talking stick right now, and their respective football teams are being ignored by their own fan base. Not a recipe for success.
SWATTLE @ NOLEANS
I will let the chickens make a mistake before I pick against them, even in the breezy superdome. "Kick Gateghazi" in Arizona was the boring, nil-nil draw football fans love to watch, and I will assume Jimmy Crackers gets up for this one, then declines to dunk the football.
PILLAGE PEOPLE @ PILLAGE PEOPLE
Car is sputtering, and Jaquizz just made Kaplan look pretty dumb. Pinning their recent losses on Derek would ignore that he needs 30+ points a game (and stellar WR play) to win a game. This defense will not stop this other defense. Let the shootout begin.
CHEEFS @ HORSIES
They took their show on the road to the bae-area after a bye week, which is no surprise given the teams recent history. I still have some qualms about their ability to do so consistently, but any team would play better in a stadium like Arrowhead.
Lucas Oil Stadium just doesn't create the same atmosphere. It's not a fortress. Luck can't beat this secondary without a legitimate threat to KFCseizes' front 7 in their own backfield.
I obviously don't think the Titans should have lost to Mathis, but Marita should disagree and certainly acted like it.
The Whinney's let a big lead slip late in Houston, and they were prepared to no do so again. I'm inclined to believe the men in red will outrun their horses.
LY-IN-S @ PROBLEM HERE
The real question with the kitties is health in their front 7. H who will no be named and Lame r Miller have not had much success on the ground (insert horse buggy metaphor here) or in the air with the exception of a bonkers play against some boys in blue. Mr. Miller is iffy for this game, but with Ngata and the Levy in the same boat a week away from the real Lion's den in minnie apple us, I think Blue plays very well in this one.
Oswellthatdoesn'tsuck was not alone in DEN, as much as he has struggled elsewhere. H should brush off his jersey and prepare him for D if they understand that. Stafford is simply better equipped, but he is on the road.
I think a Fuller/Tate comparison needs to be made, both will beat you if you're slow. The whole city took that loss personally and I think they get their team through this one. On paper, there is nothing that can stop M. Jones (except his daughter, who held him out of practice Wednesday).
You pick em'. I'll grade the test. :)
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Thursday Night Props
What'd I tell ya? I suck at this. I went 2-10 last week, so there's nowhere to go but up, right?
Anyways, I wanted to get some picks in before the Thursday game because I made up for my horrible, awful, no good very bad Sunday with a pretty good Monday. I didn't tell you guys because time constrained me, but in a fairly predictable game, the inevitable occurred.
Tonight's game is a far cry from predetermined. The Jaguar's strength is their passing game, if only because they don't even try to run the ball anymore. Tennessee is without Parish Cox, who was simultaneously the Titan's best available corner and one of the worst CB's in the league. There will be points. Neither team seems capable of playing lock-down defense, particularly when it counts.
TOTAL TD PASSES - BORTLES - OVER 1 1/2 (-115)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - MURRAY - OVER 97 1/2 (-135)
FIRST SCORING PLAY - FG OR SAFETY (+110)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - MURRAY (-175)
TEAM TO SCORE LONGEST TD - JACKSONVILLE (-105)
TOTAL SUCCESSFUL FG'S - OVER 3 1/2 (+110)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - MARIOTA - OVER 22 1/2 (-140)
I think this is the week the real Mariota stands up in front of his home fans.With a 2-8 home record, it needs to be. He has been incredibly accurate, even in his losses, and I think the national audience and his fumble last week will spark a fast start tonight.
The Jaguars have only allowed 3 passing TD's in the last 4 games, which means they're due. They have also only given up an average of 13 f.p.p.g through their last 4 to opposing QB's. If you read that as a reason to avoid anyone other than Murray, I wouldn't fault you, but I think we're going to see the total offensive package tonight. The X-factor is Mariota's designed runs. While he has been hesitant to call them, Mularkey has to have noticed by now that they always work. Jalen Ramsey will be ball hawking and making plays, but I think Mariota can avoid him well enough considering the lack of complimentary playmakers around him.
If Bortles continues his less than stellar play, I like TEN to get rolling early and never look back. If he can exploit the weak Titan's secondary (as everyone else seems to do) this should stay close and be a fun game to watch. Tajae Sharpe is also due for a coming out party, I think tonight is the night he breaks a long one.
Anyways, I wanted to get some picks in before the Thursday game because I made up for my horrible, awful, no good very bad Sunday with a pretty good Monday. I didn't tell you guys because time constrained me, but in a fairly predictable game, the inevitable occurred.
Tonight's game is a far cry from predetermined. The Jaguar's strength is their passing game, if only because they don't even try to run the ball anymore. Tennessee is without Parish Cox, who was simultaneously the Titan's best available corner and one of the worst CB's in the league. There will be points. Neither team seems capable of playing lock-down defense, particularly when it counts.
TOTAL TD PASSES - BORTLES - OVER 1 1/2 (-115)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - MURRAY - OVER 97 1/2 (-135)
FIRST SCORING PLAY - FG OR SAFETY (+110)
ANYTIME TD SCORER - MURRAY (-175)
TEAM TO SCORE LONGEST TD - JACKSONVILLE (-105)
TOTAL SUCCESSFUL FG'S - OVER 3 1/2 (+110)
TOTAL RUSH YARDS - MARIOTA - OVER 22 1/2 (-140)
I think this is the week the real Mariota stands up in front of his home fans.With a 2-8 home record, it needs to be. He has been incredibly accurate, even in his losses, and I think the national audience and his fumble last week will spark a fast start tonight.
The Jaguars have only allowed 3 passing TD's in the last 4 games, which means they're due. They have also only given up an average of 13 f.p.p.g through their last 4 to opposing QB's. If you read that as a reason to avoid anyone other than Murray, I wouldn't fault you, but I think we're going to see the total offensive package tonight. The X-factor is Mariota's designed runs. While he has been hesitant to call them, Mularkey has to have noticed by now that they always work. Jalen Ramsey will be ball hawking and making plays, but I think Mariota can avoid him well enough considering the lack of complimentary playmakers around him.
If Bortles continues his less than stellar play, I like TEN to get rolling early and never look back. If he can exploit the weak Titan's secondary (as everyone else seems to do) this should stay close and be a fun game to watch. Tajae Sharpe is also due for a coming out party, I think tonight is the night he breaks a long one.
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Week 7 NFL Picks
In the interest of rewarding those of you foolish enough to find this dank corner of the interwebs, I will disseminate the betting tips that have led me to a life of near-fame and lost fortune. If you are wise, you will disregard my advice and do as you damn well please. I do not line my coats with fat stacks of benjis. Scroll at your own risk.
"Why start in week 7?" is a question I hear you asking in the future. Well, the first 6 weeks are traditionally loser weeks. They're garbage, I don't like them, nobody likes them, they're the worst. I also may have moved on them like a bitch, and am starting a mid-season losers bracket for blogs because I have WAAAAY too much time on my hands and no more money to waste.
Week 7 -
Thursday -
Chicago @ Green Bay - CHI +8.5, OVER 46.5
I still feel good about my picks in this one, even though I lost both. Hard to predict when a QB will go down, and not surprising the 3rd string couldn't find a way through a Packers secondary that played pretty well, considering their positions on the depth chart. If someone had told me I'd be picking Hoyer to hang tight with Rodgers in Lambeau before this year began, well, let's just say it's been a weird year for us all.
Sunday -
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams - OVER 44.5
It will be interesting to see what the environment is like in London's Twickenham Stadium. The Rams will hope to get a repeat performance from Case Keenum and Kenny Britt, who torched a depleted Detroit D for career numbers in a loss last week. Even though there are some encouraging signs, the Mountain Goats will look to end a three game skid that has them back where they belong, around .500. Another factor could be the grass, a blend that's much closer to actual grass than turf. That should benefit LA. The Giants have won the last 6 matchups between these two by an average of 14.2 points. That margin certainly won't be reached in this one, I get the feeling field goals will be sparse.
Washington @ Detroit - OVER 50
Washington will wish Jordan Reed was available against a Detroit team that struggles to stop tight ends. Detroit, conversely, will wish they had Ngata and Levy back to stop a potent Washington rushing attack. Jim Bob Cooter has been able to score against just about everybody, and just about anybody can run on a tissue-thin Detroit front 7. Sensing a pattern here? This back-and-forth game will come down to the wire. I like Stafford to outduel Cousins at home and end the Redskin's 4 game winning streak, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee - TEN -3
Mularkey's boys have looked better and better as the year goes on, particularly in the passing game. The defense is much more competent than projected, which I attribute to Dick LeBeau and stellar defensive play-calling. After Indy's 4th quarter collapse against Houston, Colts linebacker Eric Walden described the loss thusly: "We blew it, this feeling is gross. It's like we pissed down our own leg". Their defensive line probably feels the same way about facing one of the best offensive lines in the league. I think Mariota continues his stellar play and Luck struggles to keep up, not because of an inability to make the throws, but simply because he won't have the time or space to step up into them.
New Orleans @ Kansas City -
The Chiefs secondary has proven itself to be among the best in the country, and that usually spells doom for Brees and his disciples. After beating Oakland on the road, I think KC will continue to roll at home. Mike Triplett at ESPN dug up the stats on the only previous meeting between Brandin Cooks and Marcus Peters, who matched up back in 2013. Cooks had 10 catches for 117 yards and a TD, which would suggest the Saints, until you compare it to Peters' 2 INT, 3 passes defended, and a forced fumble (Washington 69 - Oregon State 27). I like the Chiefs to win at Arrowhead.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati - CLE +10.5
A.J Green misses his friends. Watching Sanu and Jones be successful elsewhere has got the whole city down. I see this as a game between Eifert and Pryor Jr. as they both struggle to overcome injuries and make an impact. It's probably a good thing this game is on the road, because Cleveland fans are absolutely oblivious to the fact they have a football team right now. The "Battle of Ohio" is bound to be a miserable affair, the type of contest where no combatant really wins, but one certainly loses.
Minnesota @ Philadelphia - MIN -3
Now that the N.D State playbook has been exhausted, the glitter is beginning to fade on the darlings of the first 3 weeks. Remember when Doug Pedersen and Jim Schwartz were the talk of the NFL? What a difference a loss to the Lions can make. Now Zimmer's D wants to make a statement of intent to Bradford individually, and the league at large, as they prepare for a serious SB run. While it remains to be seen who won that trade, this defense has only allowed 63 points TOTAL thru week 7. Terrance Newman has played like a man possessed. The only reason 38 year-olds do that is a ring, baby, and Philadelphia will lose this coaching battle.
Buffalo @ Miami - BUF -3
Miami is the enigma of the NFL season so far. They've drawn the ire of bettors everywhere by knocking off a Steelers team that forgot to pack it's big boy pants for the trip down south. I like this to be an entertaining game for at least 3 quarters. Buffalo boasts the best point differential in the NFL at +59. Miami is at -16, which is much better than I would have guessed. Tyrod Taylor has outperformed probably even his own expectations, and with or without Shady in the backfield, I think he can pull this one out and keep the train on the tracks. Ryan Tannehill and Jay Ajayi have been playing better recently, but this Miami team is without a serious WR 1, 2, or 3. They will need to run through a stout D to have a chance, and I don't think they can.
Baltimore @ New York Jets - BAL +2, OVER 41
Geno Smith will get the start he's been obnoxiously anticipating, and I think it will take all of a quarter for him to remember how much it sucks to play for the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick, like it or not, is not as bad as a QB as his recent numbers suggest. I really don't think Geno's second day in the sun will go any better than the first. There is just nobody out there for him to throw to. Decker is sorely missed, and Marshall, God bless him, is not capable of beating double coverage. Without a RB that demands respect, a banged up Baltimore defense will have no problem sitting back and waiting for the mistakes that are bound to come.
Oakland @ Jacksonville -
Playing at home doesn't seem to help either of these teams. Oakland, having high hopes for their season and smarting after a comprehensive defeat, should find a way over and around Jacksonville. The Jags have been close is almost every game they've played, only getting blown out by the Chargers on the road.Besides being a statement game for the Raider's O-line, I see this as a straight up WR duel. This game has all the makings of another last possession shootout for two teams that don't know any other way to win.
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco -
Between Colin Kaepernick and Jameis Winston, it's hard to decide which QB I dislike less. They are both inaccurate, and rather poor at everything. Neither one seems to know how to audible into successful plays or avoid taking hits, but I have to acknowledge that sometimes trying to do too much is the only way to play when your receivers are crap. As a sort of bastardized home debut for Kap, I think he outplays Jameis and makes the job his own, till the offseason. Between this and the Cincy/Cleveland game, they might as well flip a coin and save us all some grief.
San Diego @ Atlanta -
IT'S NOT A TRAP! I don't think Atlanta will be sleeping on San Diego after what they've done this year. If they do get beat, it will not be because they underestimated their opponents. Atlanta has struggled to stop TE's, only Cleveland is worse. San Diego has two of the best. Joey Bosa will need to have another monster game to keep Atlanta within striking distance, which is within the realm of possibility considering his performances so far. I think it comes down to turnovers and who has the ball last, as all good games should. The Chargers seem like a team tired of losing close games on the road. The Swami picked the upset, and he's been freakishly good this year. In fact, ignore my picks and ride that man's coattails while you still have a chance.
New England @ Pittsburgh - NE -8
Leave it to a inanimate object to frustrate Bill more than any team has in a decade (full quote below). I have to agree with him, tablets are either stupid, needlessly oversized phones, or shitty laptops with no room for activities. That said, no other coach has been reduced to his unique method of troubleshooting. As an added bonus, we got to hear Pete Carroll walk the tightrope between trashing his sponsor's new product and insulting the intelligence of the best coach in the NFL. Oh, yeah, the game. Nobody beats New England with a backup. Only New England can beat New England.
Seattle @ Arizona -
The implications of this game are enormous, as a home loss would almost certainly damn Arizona to a wild card berth at best. Seattle's chances to make the playoffs would increase 25% with a win. Seattle seems to be finding itself as the season wears on, and is finally getting decent blocking from Jimmy Graham. I don't think Arizona can keep up, and for that reason I'm thinking the Seahawks are primed for a statement win on Sunday night. Two of the top 3 defenses going at it? Yes please.
Monday -
Houston @ Denver - DEN -9
I am not too high on either Denver QB, but they are both better options than the man Elway let skip town this summer. I think the Broncos want to welcome Osweiler back to Denver with open arms; Then wrap him up like a Christmas present and send his ass back to whence he came. (which is actually Montana, not Houston, but I digress). Bonus points if the PA guy plays "I Will Survive" pregame. In all seriousness, his average drop-back is 5 1/2 yards, and anyone who saw the Super Bowl knows how much Von Miller loves a backpedal. Denver by a mile.
Odds & Ends -
"As you probably noticed, I'm done with the tablets. They're too undependable… I just can't take it anymore… There are very few games where there aren't issues in some form or fashion with the equipment… There's a lot of things involved, and inevitably, something goes wrong somewhere at some point in time… And first of all, you have to figure out what the problem is. Is it a battery? Is it a helmet? Is it the coach's pack?… It could be one of 15 different things… It was a problem last week. It's basically a problem every week… I'm done with the tablets. I'll use paper pictures from here on, because I just have given it my best shot."
- Bill Belichek
And some sage advice from Nick Saban's biography:
"You've got guys out there chasing pussy, having all these kids. And then you come in here and try to play football. Ultimately it's a distraction. Ultimately, you don't want to be out there chasing after midnight. If you haven't locked it up by midnight, it's not worth it."
At this point, Saban paused, and shuffled on his feet. The color had risen in his face. His players had no idea what to expect next. "Ultimately, you never want to sleep with anybody who has less to lose than you do," he said. "So ultimately, if I'm ever going to sleep around on Miss Terry, it's going to be with Hillary Fucking Rodham Clinton."
A few members of the team laughed so hard that the fell out of their seats. "It was funny as hell," says a former player. "And it was actually a great lesson."
I found this on the excellent twitter feed of Ben Cohen @bzcohen
"Why start in week 7?" is a question I hear you asking in the future. Well, the first 6 weeks are traditionally loser weeks. They're garbage, I don't like them, nobody likes them, they're the worst. I also may have moved on them like a bitch, and am starting a mid-season losers bracket for blogs because I have WAAAAY too much time on my hands and no more money to waste.
Week 7 -
Thursday -
Chicago @ Green Bay - CHI +8.5, OVER 46.5
I still feel good about my picks in this one, even though I lost both. Hard to predict when a QB will go down, and not surprising the 3rd string couldn't find a way through a Packers secondary that played pretty well, considering their positions on the depth chart. If someone had told me I'd be picking Hoyer to hang tight with Rodgers in Lambeau before this year began, well, let's just say it's been a weird year for us all.
Sunday -
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams - OVER 44.5
It will be interesting to see what the environment is like in London's Twickenham Stadium. The Rams will hope to get a repeat performance from Case Keenum and Kenny Britt, who torched a depleted Detroit D for career numbers in a loss last week. Even though there are some encouraging signs, the Mountain Goats will look to end a three game skid that has them back where they belong, around .500. Another factor could be the grass, a blend that's much closer to actual grass than turf. That should benefit LA. The Giants have won the last 6 matchups between these two by an average of 14.2 points. That margin certainly won't be reached in this one, I get the feeling field goals will be sparse.
Washington @ Detroit - OVER 50
Washington will wish Jordan Reed was available against a Detroit team that struggles to stop tight ends. Detroit, conversely, will wish they had Ngata and Levy back to stop a potent Washington rushing attack. Jim Bob Cooter has been able to score against just about everybody, and just about anybody can run on a tissue-thin Detroit front 7. Sensing a pattern here? This back-and-forth game will come down to the wire. I like Stafford to outduel Cousins at home and end the Redskin's 4 game winning streak, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee - TEN -3
Mularkey's boys have looked better and better as the year goes on, particularly in the passing game. The defense is much more competent than projected, which I attribute to Dick LeBeau and stellar defensive play-calling. After Indy's 4th quarter collapse against Houston, Colts linebacker Eric Walden described the loss thusly: "We blew it, this feeling is gross. It's like we pissed down our own leg". Their defensive line probably feels the same way about facing one of the best offensive lines in the league. I think Mariota continues his stellar play and Luck struggles to keep up, not because of an inability to make the throws, but simply because he won't have the time or space to step up into them.
New Orleans @ Kansas City -
The Chiefs secondary has proven itself to be among the best in the country, and that usually spells doom for Brees and his disciples. After beating Oakland on the road, I think KC will continue to roll at home. Mike Triplett at ESPN dug up the stats on the only previous meeting between Brandin Cooks and Marcus Peters, who matched up back in 2013. Cooks had 10 catches for 117 yards and a TD, which would suggest the Saints, until you compare it to Peters' 2 INT, 3 passes defended, and a forced fumble (Washington 69 - Oregon State 27). I like the Chiefs to win at Arrowhead.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati - CLE +10.5
A.J Green misses his friends. Watching Sanu and Jones be successful elsewhere has got the whole city down. I see this as a game between Eifert and Pryor Jr. as they both struggle to overcome injuries and make an impact. It's probably a good thing this game is on the road, because Cleveland fans are absolutely oblivious to the fact they have a football team right now. The "Battle of Ohio" is bound to be a miserable affair, the type of contest where no combatant really wins, but one certainly loses.
Minnesota @ Philadelphia - MIN -3
Now that the N.D State playbook has been exhausted, the glitter is beginning to fade on the darlings of the first 3 weeks. Remember when Doug Pedersen and Jim Schwartz were the talk of the NFL? What a difference a loss to the Lions can make. Now Zimmer's D wants to make a statement of intent to Bradford individually, and the league at large, as they prepare for a serious SB run. While it remains to be seen who won that trade, this defense has only allowed 63 points TOTAL thru week 7. Terrance Newman has played like a man possessed. The only reason 38 year-olds do that is a ring, baby, and Philadelphia will lose this coaching battle.
Buffalo @ Miami - BUF -3
Miami is the enigma of the NFL season so far. They've drawn the ire of bettors everywhere by knocking off a Steelers team that forgot to pack it's big boy pants for the trip down south. I like this to be an entertaining game for at least 3 quarters. Buffalo boasts the best point differential in the NFL at +59. Miami is at -16, which is much better than I would have guessed. Tyrod Taylor has outperformed probably even his own expectations, and with or without Shady in the backfield, I think he can pull this one out and keep the train on the tracks. Ryan Tannehill and Jay Ajayi have been playing better recently, but this Miami team is without a serious WR 1, 2, or 3. They will need to run through a stout D to have a chance, and I don't think they can.
Baltimore @ New York Jets - BAL +2, OVER 41
Geno Smith will get the start he's been obnoxiously anticipating, and I think it will take all of a quarter for him to remember how much it sucks to play for the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick, like it or not, is not as bad as a QB as his recent numbers suggest. I really don't think Geno's second day in the sun will go any better than the first. There is just nobody out there for him to throw to. Decker is sorely missed, and Marshall, God bless him, is not capable of beating double coverage. Without a RB that demands respect, a banged up Baltimore defense will have no problem sitting back and waiting for the mistakes that are bound to come.
Oakland @ Jacksonville -
Playing at home doesn't seem to help either of these teams. Oakland, having high hopes for their season and smarting after a comprehensive defeat, should find a way over and around Jacksonville. The Jags have been close is almost every game they've played, only getting blown out by the Chargers on the road.Besides being a statement game for the Raider's O-line, I see this as a straight up WR duel. This game has all the makings of another last possession shootout for two teams that don't know any other way to win.
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco -
Between Colin Kaepernick and Jameis Winston, it's hard to decide which QB I dislike less. They are both inaccurate, and rather poor at everything. Neither one seems to know how to audible into successful plays or avoid taking hits, but I have to acknowledge that sometimes trying to do too much is the only way to play when your receivers are crap. As a sort of bastardized home debut for Kap, I think he outplays Jameis and makes the job his own, till the offseason. Between this and the Cincy/Cleveland game, they might as well flip a coin and save us all some grief.
San Diego @ Atlanta -
IT'S NOT A TRAP! I don't think Atlanta will be sleeping on San Diego after what they've done this year. If they do get beat, it will not be because they underestimated their opponents. Atlanta has struggled to stop TE's, only Cleveland is worse. San Diego has two of the best. Joey Bosa will need to have another monster game to keep Atlanta within striking distance, which is within the realm of possibility considering his performances so far. I think it comes down to turnovers and who has the ball last, as all good games should. The Chargers seem like a team tired of losing close games on the road. The Swami picked the upset, and he's been freakishly good this year. In fact, ignore my picks and ride that man's coattails while you still have a chance.
New England @ Pittsburgh - NE -8
Leave it to a inanimate object to frustrate Bill more than any team has in a decade (full quote below). I have to agree with him, tablets are either stupid, needlessly oversized phones, or shitty laptops with no room for activities. That said, no other coach has been reduced to his unique method of troubleshooting. As an added bonus, we got to hear Pete Carroll walk the tightrope between trashing his sponsor's new product and insulting the intelligence of the best coach in the NFL. Oh, yeah, the game. Nobody beats New England with a backup. Only New England can beat New England.
Seattle @ Arizona -
The implications of this game are enormous, as a home loss would almost certainly damn Arizona to a wild card berth at best. Seattle's chances to make the playoffs would increase 25% with a win. Seattle seems to be finding itself as the season wears on, and is finally getting decent blocking from Jimmy Graham. I don't think Arizona can keep up, and for that reason I'm thinking the Seahawks are primed for a statement win on Sunday night. Two of the top 3 defenses going at it? Yes please.
Monday -
Houston @ Denver - DEN -9
I am not too high on either Denver QB, but they are both better options than the man Elway let skip town this summer. I think the Broncos want to welcome Osweiler back to Denver with open arms; Then wrap him up like a Christmas present and send his ass back to whence he came. (which is actually Montana, not Houston, but I digress). Bonus points if the PA guy plays "I Will Survive" pregame. In all seriousness, his average drop-back is 5 1/2 yards, and anyone who saw the Super Bowl knows how much Von Miller loves a backpedal. Denver by a mile.
Odds & Ends -
"As you probably noticed, I'm done with the tablets. They're too undependable… I just can't take it anymore… There are very few games where there aren't issues in some form or fashion with the equipment… There's a lot of things involved, and inevitably, something goes wrong somewhere at some point in time… And first of all, you have to figure out what the problem is. Is it a battery? Is it a helmet? Is it the coach's pack?… It could be one of 15 different things… It was a problem last week. It's basically a problem every week… I'm done with the tablets. I'll use paper pictures from here on, because I just have given it my best shot."
- Bill Belichek
And some sage advice from Nick Saban's biography:
"You've got guys out there chasing pussy, having all these kids. And then you come in here and try to play football. Ultimately it's a distraction. Ultimately, you don't want to be out there chasing after midnight. If you haven't locked it up by midnight, it's not worth it."
At this point, Saban paused, and shuffled on his feet. The color had risen in his face. His players had no idea what to expect next. "Ultimately, you never want to sleep with anybody who has less to lose than you do," he said. "So ultimately, if I'm ever going to sleep around on Miss Terry, it's going to be with Hillary Fucking Rodham Clinton."
A few members of the team laughed so hard that the fell out of their seats. "It was funny as hell," says a former player. "And it was actually a great lesson."
I found this on the excellent twitter feed of Ben Cohen @bzcohen
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