Week 14 NFL Picks

Numbahs first. Thursday Night was much more lopsided than expected, and if Oakland could cover a punt, I would have had a nice night. All told, I was down 95 dolares. When it comes to the straight up picks, I'm at 79-41-7. There was some faulty math in the last post, expect to see more in the future. It's since been corrected, and at 0.658%, I'm running at a pretty good clip.


OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY


This one pretty much went according to plan. I didn't think Kelce would have the success he did, but in general the Chiefs looked comfortable and confident throughout.


PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO - PIT -2


With Sammy Watkins questionable and Shady almost certainly not 100%, I have a hard time seeing the Steelers letting this one slip. The Bills don't have much to play for, and while I expect it to be close, I think Pittsburgh will find a way to win.


DENVER @ TENNESSEE - OVER 44


This is a different story. I think Mariota is scary accurate, and will do much better against the Denver secondary than most people expect.  The Broncos allow 123 rypg, good for 28th in the league. If the Titans can't exploit that weakness, I don't know who can. The real question is with the Titans defense, as they finally cut their woeful CB Parish Cox. Brice McCain or rookie LeShaun Sims will get the start. Trevor Siemian is also listed as questionable for the Broncos, who need this game as badly as the Titans do.


WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA - WSH -2


Both Jordan and Ryan Matthews are questionable, and I can't think of the last time I saw another Eagle make a play. There is a 70 yard difference in expected offensive yardage in favor of the Redskins. Without Lane Johnson, this Philly team just isn't dangerous. The late-season Redskins are exactly that, and Cousins has been clutch before.


ARIZONA @ MIAMI


Tyran Mathieu and Kiko Alonso are out, so both defenses are missing key pieces. Arizona is much better at stopping the rush than the Dolphins are, allowing about 100 yards a game to Miami's 130. Both teams have to have success running the ball to win, with little separation out wide. Arizona is 1-4 on the road, Miami is 5-1 at home. Not encouraging, until you look at the Dolphins lone home loss which came against Tennessee, another ground-first offense. I think Arizona can overcome their road woes and deal a significant blow to the Fins wildcard chances.


SAN DIEGO @ CAROLINA


Cam Newton and Rivera seem to be in a bit of a tiff at the moment. Losing will test relationships, but the division of play calling responsibility seems to be unduly focused of Kuechly and Rivera, as Cam rarely changes plays at the line or protections.


CINCINATTI @ CLEVELAND


I just can't pick the Browns. I really wanted to.


CHICAGO @ DETROIT - OVER 43 1/2


The only things missing from this game will be nearby, guarding the entrance to Comerica Park. Ohh my, Detroit has finally fielded a decent football team. Of course, I didn't expect them to, and they still lack anything resembling a RB. Jim Bob Cooter should get the NFL equivalent of a gold star, and a head coaching gig as soon as his contract expires. Also, Deandre Levy is back, and does not plan to break again anytime soon.


HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS


Pretty much nobody has the Texans this week, which I think is surprising. While they can't score, they excel in the one defensive group that matters when you play the Colts. I expect Brock to make a boneheaded play or two, but I think this will be closer than the 6 1/2 point line suggests.


MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE - OVER 39


Jacksonville is actually better on both sides of the ball when yardage is considered. Their big failings are turnovers ( -18, dead last in the NFL). Minnesota sits at +13, and I expect the gap to grow before this game is through. Bradford has only thrown 3 picks all year.


NEW YORK JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO


The 9ers give up 169 rush yards a game. The Jets only allow 90. Both teams are playing for pride at this point, and with equally shitty passing attacks, the advantage goes to the Jets. I'm somewhat baffled Chip is rethinking the QB situation at this point in the year, particularly when Kaepernick has a 3-1 TD/INT ratio. San Fran also has to overcome whatever the opposite of a home field advantage is, and would probably prefer to play on the road than at Fake-Boob Valley, Lev-I-Early Stadium


NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY


Fun Fact: the leading rushers for these two teams combine for 4 TD's. Basically, Tampa Bay's hopes rest squarely on Mike Evans' shoulder pads. I think their defense is good enough to keep the Saints around the 20 point mark, and expect this game to stay tight. Brees and Co have lost close a lot recently, and I expect them to do everything in their power to prevent being eliminated from the NFC South race. The fairy dust will come of Jameis soon enough, but I wouldn't expect it this week.

ATLANTA @ LOS ANGELES


Goff has 509 yards in 3 starts. He just can't throw the deep ball, and Fisher seems content to lose rather than attempt it. The Rams are 4/33 on third down during his tenure at QB, a damning indictment for a pitiful offense.


SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY


This one will be fun. Still not over the Fail Mary, the Pack get to enjoy home cooking before testing their QB's bold words against a recently shaken up Seattle LOB. Earl Thomas is out for the year and possibly more after colliding with Kam Chancellor. If he does retire, his diminutive frame will be sorely missed (by no WR who has been properly introduced).


DALLAS @ NEW YORK GIANTS - DAL -4


I, like a vast majority of NFL fans, have been patiently waiting for the Cowboys to slip. They just haven't yet. The Giants will be without JPP, and struggle on 3rd down, regardless of yardage. There are not many justifications for picking against the Cowboys until someone does the improbable.


BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND - BAL +7


Another nationally televised game that is sure to live up to it's billing. Tom Brady in a short season has 19 TD's and 1 INT. The Patriots have a point differential of +112, followed closely by Dallas at +105, then Seattle at +70. Nobody will get too much credit for predicting a DAL/NE Super Bowl, but it seems almost inevitable at this point. Baltimore is historically good at stopping the run, but Belichek could win a game without  calling a single one.