Week 11 NFL Picks

Ahh, where to begin. Thursday night finally went my way, but watching Luke Kuechly get carted off made me very sad. I have since recovered. Now I am fairly certain I have every game pegged, just like last week (7/7). There are a fair amount of locks this week, so I'll start with a parlay.

PIT KC NE SEA OAK

Moneylines were not available for NE-SF, so I had to take the line (-13). This leaves me at about 5/1. I've just been assuming my Sunday picks are (-115), so if I hit it, I'll give myself 4 wins and a pat on the back. If NE doesn't cover, I'll give myself 3 and a golf clap.

NEW ORLEANS  @  CAROLINA

Well, I have to say, before Kalil and Kuechly went out, I called this game to a tee. Score 1 for Kyle.

PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND - PIT (-9)

The Browns will get RGIII back when they play Cincinnati in week 14, and that's about it for things the Brown's faithful can look forward to. Expect them to add the Heisman winner and still suck. Then do it again on draft day. I don't think he will play this year, but if he does, he can't help their rush defense (140 ypg) or their scoring defense (30 ppg). The Steelers, after losing four straight, will not let this team beat them.

BALTIMORE @ DALLAS

I despise EZ-E and Dak Prescott. I like how they play ball. Jerry should be given credit for a great draft, because you know he didn't ask for any advice. I knew Dak would be a steal, but was not expecting Elliot. Romo oozes leadership and maturity, which both the young guns lack. Still, they would not be 8-1 if he didn't get hurt in Seattle. I think the Seahawks will be the next team to beat them, at Jerryworld, in the playoffs, just like Tony tweeted.

JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT - OVER 48

My bold pick of the week is the Lions to lose at home. What a sentence that is. The Lions just cannot run the ball, and that is what has been giving the Jags fits all season. Jacksonville only gives up 215 passing yards a game, and while I expect Stafford to throw closer to 300, I think lady luck finally deserts a team that should be 3-6.  Detroit's 5 wins have come by a total of 17 points. Of course, there is still the potential for a blowout if Bortles continues to throw to the wrong team (11 INT's). Jim Bob Cooter is a helluva coach, and his bag of tricks is deep. I think they run dry.

TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS - TEN (+3)

I don't think I've ever enjoyed watching a regular season football game as much as I did watching the Titans blowout the Packers. It was instant, total, and exotically smashmouthed. Mariota made Aaron Rodgers look like Mr Rodgers. Delanie Walker was shedding tackles like a broken lawnmower. DeMarco Murray went to the house on the first play of the Titans first possession, then threw a TD to cap the second. Rishard Matthews saluted his fallen brother, and Tajae Sharpe took a nap after a long overdue first. The commentator recommended the victory formation with 10 minutes left. They go into Indy healthy and mad, having lost 10 straight (15 of 16) to the Colts. The Titans have arrived.

BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI

This is easily my least confident pick. Both are already irrelevant in my eyes, with the wildcards both headed to the torrid AFC West. The Bengals have an outside shot, but I don't think they think they're good enough to take it. The swing vote was Eric Wood, the starting center for the Bills, being out due to a broken leg. There is never a good week to break in a new center. Just ask Cam.

TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY

KC @ ARROWHEAD = W

CHICAGO @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Usually I expect teams that suffered a blowout to respond well the next week. The Bears (and the Pack) just can't beat a good team, or win on the road. To expect them to do both, while denying a desperate NFC East contender, is just too much to ask. Cutler is counting down the days to golf, and JPP is praying that this is the week that proves you don't need all of your fingers to grab a ... QB.

ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA

The reports of the Viking's death are greatly exaggerated. Bradford has indeed reverted to his pre-Viking, turnover-prone ways, but the defense was all they had during their 5 game win streak. Now, they just have to outplay one of the league's other defenses. Arizona can't score either. The onus is on either defense to make a big play. The Honey Badger will be out, which is good news for the Norse, ankles, and slithery-snakes everywhere.

MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES - OVER 39 1/2


Call me crazy (or maybe), but is L.A not where rushing attacks go to die? This defense is fahreal, and Goff is going to come out slingin' in his first NFL game. I think he makes a few mistakes, but also makes a few plays Keenum wouldn't dream of. Fisher strikes me as the type of coach to punish a rookie (and fans) who think he's the best available, even if it's true. Miami has played very well of late, and I think this is easily the most entertaining afternoon game.

NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO - NE (-13)

The 9ers put a good scare in the Cardinals last week. They wish they could fast-forward to Monday this week.

PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE


Stephen A. thinks the Eagles should sit Wentz for no other reason than the Seattle defense. I think he's right. It does not help that Jordan Matthews is questionable. The Eagles will need to keep the skies clear, and get some help from special teams just to keep this thing within reach.

GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON - OVER 49 1/2

Clay Matthews makes or breaks the Packer defense, and if he is missing or limited I don't think they have much of a chance. The Cheese-Doodles will be missing two starting o-linemen, which is only made worse by Rodger's lack of mobility. Without any run game to speak of, I think Washington can drive a stake in the Packers hopes of being competitive this year. Lucky for them, the NFC North will still be there for the taking.

HOUSTON @ OAKLAND - OVER 46


I'm going with Oakland, because Houston will not be able to put up enough points. The Raiders have a variety of ways to beat you, but defense is generally not one of them. Osweiler just flat-out misses Hopkins on a consistent enough basis to lose games. Elevation will play a large role in this one, but I can't for the life of me figure out who will benefit more from it. The Azteca is 2000ft higher than Mile High, and will provide an atmosphere (or lack thereof) unlike any in London. The Texans are without their 2nd and 3rd string RB, and will be hoping Miller has shaken off a injured ankle. They need a lot of things to go right to win.