Week 9 NFL Picks

So, my totally-not-made-up, straight up totals are 23-15-4. The "4" stems from the two ties and two games I forgot to pick. I'll get into where I've been right and wrong a little more later, but I wanted to get my picks in ASAP. If you know me well, the last minute is ASAP.

DALLAS @ CLEVELAND

The 'Boy's are at a crossroads. They seem to have already determined what is best for them, but we are getting to the point where someone needs to explain this to Tony. If I were him, I would retire. I would also have never played this barbaric sport, cuz I am a 5'11'', 190lb, smart cookie who likes his internal organs to remain where God intended. Kessler will get some points up, but not enough. I do think they win a game before the season is out, but there isn't a patsy left on the Brown's schedule.

PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE

This game hinges on Roethlisberger's meniscus. The very idea of playing football two weeks after knee surgery boggles the mind, particularly when it's against your biggest rival. Even healthy, Big Ben is about as mobile as his namesake, and Sunday he will be sporting an incredibly short leash. Both teams are coming off the bye. Home team gets the edge, especially considering how badly the Ravens need a W.

DETROIT @ MINNESOTA  - DET + 6 1/2

Minnesota is at 5-2 with the league's second worst offense. This is a pretty big trap game for them, and I think the pieces Detroit may get back on D will seriously hamper their chances of putting points on the board.  The unexpected departure of Norv Turner will mean his replacement( TE coach Pat Shurmur) will keep the Lions guessing. I have to give a big shoutout to family friend Audie Cole, who will get the start in place of injured MLB Eric Kendricks this week. If anybody can get me to root against the Lions, it's him. 

JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY - UNDER 44

Without QB Alex Smith (who is not in the concussion protocol, but almost certainly has one) the Chiefs will turn to Nick Foles, a perfectly suitable, if uninspiring, backup. Jacksonville should come out hot, as they got embarrassed by Tennessee on national TV last week. Any offense as pass-heavy as the Jag's is terrified of Arrowhead. After firing their OC Greg Olsen, all eyes will be on Gus Bradley. I think it was a largely symbolic gesture, and he is being allowed to finish out the year.

DENVER @ OAKLAND - DEN (PICK EM')

Please excuse me while I barf some stats. The gap between what the Broncos allow through the air (202 ypg) and what OAK expects to gain (290 ypg) highlights how critical it is for both of these teams to win their matchups on the outside. The Broncos will have to do so without Aquib Talib, who is out with a back injury. Amari Cooper is questionable for Oakland. The Raiders just don't have an alternative, and have struggled mightily against defenses who cover well. Their average yardage numbers (406 for - 417 against) show just how lucky they were. I have a virulent dislike for Jack Del Rio and Derek Carr, and intend to enjoy every bit of their regression to the mean.

INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY - 

We are starting to reach the point where there is no road to recovery for certain teams. Either of these two can recover from a loss this week, but not easily. Essentially half the playmakers for GB are hurt, and they still managed to play ATL close. Indy's issues mostly lie with the offensive line. The Colts are also very vulnerable through the air, giving up 413 yards a game. Rodgers feasts on defenses that soft, particularly at home.

CAROLINA @ L.A RAMS - UNDER 44

My weekly Swami-Sez-Wrong pick is Carolina to win on the road. I think the Rams are certainly built to stop the read-option attack that makes the Panthers dangerous, but my issue is with their own offense. Gurley hasn't done much to justify his preseason hype, and with Goff waiting in the wings, I think Keenum will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand. The Panthers essentially need to win out to make the playoffs, and I don't think they are ready to give up on this year just yet.

PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS - OVER 43

Josh Huff had himself a DAT (or Blount, or Lyerla or...) moment when he was caught speeding across state lines with hollow-points and <50g of reefer. As much as I support the second amendment and marijuana legalization, he gave the PHI ownership no choice. To his credit, he has said all the right things in the aftermath; hardly consolation to his special team-ates. The Giants had their entire roster at practice, with OBJ's banged-up hip being the only injury nine weeks in. That's pretty odd. Lane Johnson's suspension is seriously hurting the Eagles, but I think they get a turnover or two and win.

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI - UNDER 44

In this week's "game nobody's watching", the Jets will bring their elite rush defense to Miami's recently elite rushing offense. I was one of the unfortunates who dropped Ajayi in Wk 6, and as such, would like to not have a monument to my own stupidity enshrined in the record books. The simmering feud of Marshall v. Maxwell will probably determine the outcome of this one, and I think Byron can win that battle again.

NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO - N.O -4

The 49er's simply cannot stop the run. Lucky for them, The Saint's don't. There's probably more attention given to Kaepernick's protest than the rest of the team combined.  They will get Carlos Hyde back, and that will certainly help, but I think this team is considerably worse than the Browns. Kaep will continue to make mistakes downfield, and I think the Saints win very big on the road.

TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO  - OVER 47 1/2

The best 3-5 team in the NFL needs W's to keep up in the fierce AFC West. The city itself is about to vote on the plans to fund a new stadium. As much as I like what the Titans have been able to do, I cannot in good conscience ignore how significant this game is to the other boys in powder blue.

BUFFALO @ SEATTLE - BUF +7

This has all the makings of another 9-6, 13-10 type slugfest. Seattle has put themselves in a good spot. They still can't score, but the tie with Arizona pretty much ensured them a playoff berth if they just stay .500 the rest of the year. Pete should have something special cooked up on offense, considering that's all he really needs to work on. I have Beast Mode on my fantasy bench, just in case. It's hard to imagine the Bills leaving the Clink with a W, but a defensive score could do it.