Tuesday, September 4, 2018

NFL Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL is upon us. Hopefully it's kinder to us than the NCAA was.

WIN: BAL -6 1/2 (-119) 7U to win 5.88U
LOSS: TEN -1 (-105) 3U to win 2.86U
WIN: JAX -3 (-113) 3U to win 2.65U


These 3 jumped out at me, and I can't decide if I should just stick to them and play big or try to find some other value on the prop market. For the moment, this is it, because BetOnline doesn't have props yet. Also, I can't get Baltimore at -6 1/2 anymore, but I like them to win by 14+.  One more teaser:

SEA DEN UNDER 47 1/2
BUF BAL UNDER 45 1/2
HOU +12

LOSS: 2U to win 3.20U

So, BetOnline has considerably fewer props than I'm used to, and a significantly clunkier website. I'm taking a risk and going where I know I probably shouldn't, the "First TD" prop. 1U each

LOSS: Delanie Walker +1200
LOSS: Melvin Gordon +550
LOSS: Royce Freeman +700
LOSS: Jordan Reed +800
LOSS: JMon Moore +2500
LOSS: LeGarrette Blount +800

Addition:

LOSS: BAL - BUF UNDER 40 1/2 -110 3U to win 2.73U

Additional Addition

WIN: LAR -4 1/2 (-105) 1U to win .95U

Thursday Night Prop:

WIN: ATL to kick +1 1/2 FG (-150) 3U to win 2U

Monday Night Addition

LOSS: DET -6 1/2 (-112) 3U to win 2.68U

Leans:

WIN: Chicago to cover +7 1/2 against GB
WIN: Philly -2 1/2 against the Falcons. 
LOSS: PIT -4 1/2 versus the Browns.

-3.47U before the LAR - OAK game.

WIN: Double Result - (+550) 1U to win 5.50U
OAK 1st Half LAR 2nd Half

LOSS: OAK OVER 1 1/2 FG (+100) 3U to win 3U
WIN: LAR OVER 2 1/2 TD (-150) 3U to win 2U

LOSS: OAK TT OVER 20 1/2 (-120) 3U to win 2.5U

-1.02U on the week in NFL. All in all, I think I had a decent read on the games not involving the teams I have a rooting interest in (DET, TEN). Next week I would fade DET but there isn't a line posted yet, probably because they played tonight. Anyways, my big mistake was taking the first to score props. without those I would have been up about 5U.




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