Sunday, September 9, 2018

NFL Week 2

So, just starting this page so I can put down some obvious (to me) bets against the Cardinals and Bills. I get the feeling they will be obvious to a lot of people and I want to get ahead of the line move. (Update: the Chargers line moved the other way, to 7, which I guess I should have expected)

WIN: LAC -7 1/2 (-104) 7U to win 6.73U
WIN: LAR -10 (-103) 5U to win 4.85U

They took the LAR line down, but I will be doubling down as soon as I can after watching Monday Night. It's now back up and hovering around -13 1/2. So one line I bought too early, one I got right.

WIN: LAR -13 1/2 (-112) 5U to win 4.46U

Kansas City looks like a pretty good line to buy early as well, I had them at +5 at PIT but I decided I like the moneyline more, so that's this week's edit. I'm also dropping my bet on the Browns.

WIN: KC moneyline (+200) 10U to win 20U
LOSS: PHI -3 (-120) 7U to win 5.83U

Philly at -3 is just flat ridiculous. Tampa Bay will look like a different team when they face a stout D.

LOSS: SEA - CHI OVER 43 (-110) 3U to win 2.73U

Two good defenses here, but I see two close games and enough offensive weapons to get up and over these numbers. Defensive scores have been all the rage Week 1 (7 by my count) and one is all you need.

This week is pretty much Chiefs or bust, I just don't see a whole lot else on the card right now. My 7U play last week on the Ravens cashed, and it turned out to be the easiest game to call. Hopefully this week is the same, though the Steelers are a whole different animal than the hapless Bills. I expect a shootout and I think either team could win a close game.

The Chiefs pick came in, so now I'm just waiting on the Rams to give me my first positive week.

LOSS: NYG-DAL - D/ST Score: YES (+190) 2U to win 3.80U
WIN: 1st Quarter - Over 7 1/2 - (+105) 2U to win 2.10U

+29.14U on the day, + about 28U on the year. Just waiting for the Seattle-Chicago game.

Monday Night Props

LOSS: First Score - CHI Rushing TD (+650) 1U to win 6.5U
WIN: Total Tackles and Assists - OVER 4 1/2 - Khalil Mack - YES (-110) 3U to win 2.73U

And tailing these from @2sharp2beAsquare Bovada and 5Dimes, respecfully:

WIN: Jordan Howard (CHI) over 2½ receptions (-145) 2U to win 1.38U
LOSS: Tarik Cohen (CHI) over 47½ rush+receiving yards (+120) 2U to win 2.4U

Up 27.25U on the week, 26.23U on the year.


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